The Week That Was: 2022-06-04 (June 4, 2022)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “The fact that a great many people believe something is no guarantee of its truth.”— William Somerset Maugham, (1874–1965), [H/t William Readdy]
Number of the Week: minus 2°F (minus 19°C) THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: John Robson has a video presentation that addresses problems with the sun that the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its followers are attempting to bury – variation in Total Solar Irradiance (TSI). The video includes brief clips from an interview with Ronan Connolly, who with 22 others, authored a paper published by Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics that showed tremendous disagreement among solar scientists on constancy of TSI. Given that the IPCC has suppressed exposure of its prior errors such as its “hockey-stick” and the “hot spot” over the tropics that no one can find, the current attempts to suppress solar variation are no surprise.
Since, for purposes of his presentations, he accepts the UN IPCC claim of a solar constant, the solar question is not an issue in Howard Hayden’s essays on Basic Climate Physics. Separately Hayden made estimates of the importance of the greenhouse effect in making the earth inhabitable. These estimates will be presented.
Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. posted an essay by Ross McKitrick further explaining the errors made in claiming that extreme weather events are caused by human carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.
Richard Lindzen, Will Happer, and others have stated that clouds are a big unknown in climate science despite the IPCC and its followers insisting that the science is settled. The World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews published a paper by Michael Jonas investigating changes in cloud cover, which may explain the warming since 1983. This paper may explain an increase in surface temperatures rather than the presumed influence of CO2.
The Proceedings of the Royal Society A published a paper by Demetris Koutsoyiannis. et al. indicating that attributing recent warming to CO2 may be a misapplication of causality. The paper involves understanding of probability theory beyond the scope of TWTW. But the causality issue is vital, as illustrated by Al Gore’s false claims that CO2 was causing the earth to go into and out of glacial periods over the past 1,000,000 years.
Not to be excluded from the pack of global “experts,” the World Energy Council claimed that the current energy crisis is different. Its reasoning is questionable.
OPEC+ has announced it will increase oil output for July and August by 50 percent. Meanwhile, the Biden Administration continues to favor wind and solar industries as it continues constricting the oil and natural gas industries.
Sixteen Different Ways: In its video, Climate Discussion Nexus clearly presents a major problem in the data for solar output and why it has become a controversy. Active cavity radiometer irradiance monitor instrument on satellites (ACRIM) measures total solar irradiance (TSI) with an average of 1,367 watts per meter squared (W/m2) at the top of the atmosphere. Yet the IPCC estimates that the total CO2 added by humans amounts to only 2 W/m2.
The first IPCC Assessment Report (1990) showed that solar output increased in the 1980s. The third Assessment Report (AR3, 2001) had several reconstructions of solar output (Radiative Forcing of Climate Change Figure 6.4 and 6.5 in the Working Group I (The Scientific Basis)).
What happened? There was over a two-year gap in the ACRIM data due to the Challenger disaster, from June 1989 to October 1991. Figure 6.5 of AR3 shows different estimates from Lean, et al. Hoyt and Schatten, Solanki and Fligge, and Lockwood and Stamper. These include data from the Nimbus 7 satellite used to fill in the ACRIM data. However, the Nimbus was not designed to accurately measure total solar irradiance and its sensors were pointed towards earth instead of the sun.
The IPCC has chosen the datasets with the lowest variation of Total Solar Irradiance as the definitive set. A justification is given by Lean.
“The fact that some people could use Willson’s [the first estimates] results as an excuse to do nothing about greenhouse gas emissions is one reason, we felt we needed to look at the data ourselves.”
This attitude is raw politics not science.
In his comments, Ronan Connolly states IPCC claims solar activity has been declining slightly, according to the IPCC solar activity could not cause the recent warming.
To make matters worse, the Lean et al. study (identified in the Robson presentation as Frolich) claimed an increase in the sensitivity of the Nimbus 7 instrumentation while in orbit. The designers of the instruments stated that there is no known physical change that could create an increase in sensitivity. Further, Nimbus 7s was calibrated electrically every 12 days, no indication of an increased sensitivity.
In July 2021, Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics published a paper by Connolly and 22 other scientists detailing sixteen different views on the changes in solar influence. Yet, the IPCC clings to its view that the one showing the least variation is the correct one.
Further, the followers of the IPCC continue to label those who disagree as corrupt. Yet, the corruption goes in one direction: those who question the science behind questionable and costly government policy are corrupt, according to those who continue to receive hundreds of millions from government. See links under Science: Is the Sun Rising?
Benefits of Greenhouse Gases: The essays on Basic Climate Physics by Howard Hayden do not depend on whether or not the sun is constant. For simplicity, he accepts the IPCC numbers and shows that using well accepted laws of physics, the IPCC greatly overestimates the warming that will result from a doubling of CO2.
In the February 2020 issue of “The Energy Advocate,” Hayden wrote that if the Earth had no atmosphere and was a true “black body” not reflecting sunlight, on average, the Earth would be about 10°C (18°F) COLDER than it is. If the Earth reflected 30% of the sunlight, as it does, but had no greenhouse gases, the Earth would be about 33°C (59°F) COLDER.
Yet, Washington has declared a climate crisis from a modest increase of the greenhouse effect? It has not given compelling physical evidence of a dangerous increase in the greenhouse effect; an effect humans need to keep the Earth warm enough for inhabitation. No wonder 19th century scientists were curious why the earth was so warm, given its distance from the sun. See http://www.sepp.org/science_papers.cfm?whichyear=2022
Biases: The last TWTW discussed Ross McKitrick’s latest paper on the misuse of Total Least Squares (TLS) attributing unusual weather events to human emissions of CO2. The procedure has a closure problem to obtaining a unique solution – too many unknowns, not enough independent, defining equations. On October 23, 2021, TWTW discussed the work by McKitrick exposing thousands of studies that used a procedure called optimal fingerprinting which was used to calculate false probabilities for attributing unusual weather events to human emissions. This was based on frequency probabilities, as defined in the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) Theorem by Gauss-Markov. The procedure did not meet the conditions of the Theorem, thus had errors the size of which are unknown. More data only means that you have more confidence in the result, not that the results are correct.
In Climate Etc. McKitrick wrote an update of these efforts stating:
OLS (Ordinary Least Squares, a simplified version of GLS) models assume that the explanatory variables in a regression are accurately measured, so the “errors” separating the dependent variable from the regression line are entirely due to randomness in the dependent variables. If the explanatory variables also contain randomness, for instance due to measurement error, OLS will typically yield biased slope estimators.
“I have another study under review in which I explore in some detail the consequences of allowing the X’s to be correlated with each other. I included a preliminary look at this case in the present paper. I found that when the signals are correlated OLS still exhibits attenuation bias even when the true value of b = 0 and TLS exhibits a positive bias, but in this case the TLS bias gets large enough to risk false positives: namely an apparently “significant” value of b [indicating a relationship] even when the true value is zero.
“In sum I conclude that in general TLS over-corrects for attenuation bias, thereby yielding signal coefficients that are too large. It also yields extremely unstable estimates with large variances. Researchers should not rely on TLS for signal detection inferences, unless they have done the required testing (as discussed in my paper) that establishes that TLS is appropriate for the context.
“Also, climate scientists should consider using Instrumental Variables as a remedy for the EIV problem, since it can be shown to yield unbiased and consistent results.” [Boldface added] See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
Cloudy Issue: In his paper published by World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews, Michael Jonas begins with:
“The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) repeatedly acknowledge that clouds are a major source of uncertainty in the climate models, including: ‘evidence for a systematic indirect solar effect [on global average low level cloud cover] remains ambiguous,’ and ‘Large uncertainties remain about how clouds might respond to global climate change.’ As indicated by these statements, the climate models contain little or no provision for cloud cover to change over long-time scales other than as a reaction to climate change.
“This paper argues that the behaviour of clouds does suggest that other processes are at work, and that the models should make provision for them.
“The IPCC also say: ‘An albedo decrease of only 1%, bringing the Earth’s albedo from 30% to 29%, would cause an increase in the black-body radiative equilibrium temperature of about 1°C, a highly significant value, roughly equivalent to the direct radiative effect of a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration.’ [Actually, it is a decrease of one percentage point, not a decrease of 1%.]
“This paper analyses the behaviour of clouds in light of the above statement, in order to see how much effect clouds might have on climate model projections.
He concludes the paper with a caution:
“The patterns of behaviour of clouds, both for cloud area and cloud opacity, indicate that the decrease in global cloud area over the study period 1983-2017 was caused by an unspecified factor and was not caused directly or indirectly by the global surface temperature increase over the same period. This also implies that the decrease in global cloud area was not caused by a man-made increase in CO2. [Boldface added]
“Evaluation of changes in both clouds and CO2 in the study period 1983-2017 indicate that cloud changes caused by this unspecified factor had a similar impact to that of the increase in CO2, with respect to the increase in radiation reaching the surface (radiative forcing), and possibly a much larger impact. NB. The comparison is with respect to radiative forcing only, and specifically not to global surface temperature.
“The climate models, which have zero or negative cloud impact independently from CO2, need to take this into account in order to avoid over-estimating the influence of CO2.
Jones goes into further detail in an essay posted on WUWT. His work reinforces the importance of understanding clouds. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
More Difficulties: Two papers published in Proceedings of the Royal Society A address the difficulties in establishing causation from complex data. Often a which came first, the chicken or the egg, problem arises. Often there is no clean solution. As the authors state in the second abstract:
“Starting from the idea of stochastic causal systems, the approach extends it to the more general concept of hen-or-egg causality, which includes as special cases the classic causal, and the potentially causal and anti-causal systems. The framework developed is applicable to large-scale open systems, which are neither controllable nor repeatable. In this paper, we illustrate and
showcase the proposed framework in a number of case studies. Some of them are controlled synthetic examples and are conducted as a proof of applicability of the theoretical concept, to test the methodology with a priori known system properties. Others are real-world studies on interesting scientific problems in geophysics, and in particular hydrology and climatology.”
To TWTW these problems illustrate the need for simplicity to address the core problem, how much will a doubling of CO2 warm the earth. Adding feedbacks without addressing the core problem just complicates the issues. The essays on Basic Climate Physics by Howard Hayden address the core problem, but one must recognize the results are rough, and fail if the assumptions of a constant sun and albedo (reflectivity) change. For that reason, they are for description not prediction. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
More Experts: The World Energy Council is an entity dating back to 1924. Headquartered in London, is current mission statement reads:
‘To promote the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all people’.
In an interview posted by Real Clear Energy, Dr. Angela Wilkinson, the Secretary General, said:
“We are now experiencing a first global energy shock. This isn’t the same as the 1970s oil shock crisis, this is a consumer driven crisis and the consumer-driven adjustments that are going to come out of this are going to be very significant.” [Boldface added]
There is nothing “consumer-driven” about the Russian invasion of Ukraine and government policies in cutting off supplies of oil and natural gas from Russia in response. The World Energy Council is another international entity that pretends to speak for the public. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy.
Consumer Driven Crisis: China and India are demonstrating their response to a “consumer- driven” crisis. According to Vijay Jayaraj, India is opening 100 Coal Mines:
“’Earlier we were hailed as bad boys because we were promoting fossil fuel and now, we are in the news that we are not supplying enough of it,’ said India’s Coal Secretary, pointing to the negative coverage of a media that change colors as frequently as chameleons and the global hypocrisy over fossil fuels.”
According to Robert Bryce, “India and China Coal Production Surging By 700M Tons Per Year: That’s Greater Than All U.S. Coal Output.”
The Biden Administration is reacting to the sharpest increase in weekly gasoline prices since the EIA began these records in 1992 (doubling since Biden took office) by restricting oil and gas production on Federal lands while encouraging unreliable wind and solar. Meanwhile OPEC+ has announced a 50% increase in oil output for July and August. See links under: Change in US Administrations. Problems in the Orthodoxy, Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes, Washington’s Control of Energy, and Oil, Natural Gas – the Future or the Past? and https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg&f=w
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving. The entire Biden Administration won in 2021, so individuals in it are still eligible.
The voting will close on July 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason the person is qualified for the honor to [email protected] The awardee will be announced at the annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness on August 14 to 16 at the South Point Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas. Registration: https://aaps.wufoo.com/forms/qb79fo31o62uh1/; Hotel: https://be.synxis.com/?adult=1&arrive=2022-08- 14&chain=6903&child=0¤cy=USD&depart=2022-08- 15&group=DOC0811&hotel=11548&level=hotel&locale=en-US&rooms=1
Number of the Week: Minus 2°F (minus 19°C). Howard Hayden estimates that, if the Earth reflected 30% of the sunlight, as it does, but had no greenhouse gases, the average temperature of the Earth would be about 33°C (59°F) COLDER. In its first Assessment Report the IPCC made a similar calculation. According to Space.com:
The average temperature on Earth lies somewhere around 57 degrees Fahrenheit (13.9 degrees Celsius). According to climate information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), that was the 20th century average temperature, measured across land and ocean, night, and day.
This implies an average temperature with no greenhouse effect of minus 2°F (minus 19°C). And Washington calls a slight increase in the greenhouse effect, that cannot be separated from natural variability, a crisis? See https://www.space.com/17816-earth-temperature.html
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
Looking at the Sun
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 1, 2022 https://climatediscussionnexus.com/videos/looking-at-the-sun/
By Ronan Connolly, Willie Soon, Michael Connolly, Sallie Baliunas, et al., Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics, 2021
Studying Sunspot Activity Cycles: Hindcasting and Forecasting Video Presentation by Willie Soon, DDP Conference, July 31, 2021 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Imc3lgJKZY
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/ Download with no charge:
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/ Download with no charge:
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008 http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019 https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/publications/SeaLevelRiseCCRII.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy
By Ross McKitrick, Climate Etc. May 31, 2022 https://judithcurry.com/2022/05/31/biases-in-climate-fingerprinting-methods%ef%bf%bc/
By Michael O Jonas, World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews, May 26, 2022 https://wjarr.com/sites/default/files/WJARR-2022-0478.pdf
By Michael Jonas, WUWT, May 31, 2022
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, June 2, 2022 https://notrickszone.com/2022/06/02/royal-society-scientific-method-application-shows-the- perception-co2-causes-global-warming-can-be-excluded/
Link to first paper: Revisiting causality using stochastics: 1. Theory
By Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Christian Onof, Antonis Christofides and Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Proceedings of the Royal Society A, May 22, 2022 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rspa.2021.0835
Link to second paper: Revisiting causality using stochastics: 2. Applications
By Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Christian Onof, Antonis Christofidis and Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz Proceedings of the Royal Society A, May 22, 2022 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2021.0836
[SEPP Comment: Establishing causation is difficult.]
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, June 2, 2022 https://rclutz.com/2022/06/02/the-cooling-also-not-our-fault/
Defending the Orthodoxy
By The Editors, Real Clear Energy, June 01, 2022 https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/06/01/the_global_energy_outlook_realclearenergys
_q_and_a_with_the_world_energy_council_835029.html Link to website: World Energy Council https://www.worldenergy.org/
Press Release: AAAS Science, June 2, 2022 https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/954293
Link to paper: From white to green: Snow cover loss and increased vegetation productivity in the European Alps
By Sabine Rumpf, et al., AAAS Science, June 2, 2022 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn6697
From the abstract: “Here, we demonstrate that 77% of the European Alps above the tree line experienced greening (productivity gain) and <1% browning (productivity loss) over the past four decades. Snow cover declined significantly during this time, but in <10% of the area.”
[SEPP Comment: The highly biased publication ignores satellite based atmospheric temperature trends but allows satellite imaginary indicating what is claimed to be warming.]
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 3, 2022
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science WHO: Climate Action Must Include Mental Health By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 3, 2022
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 28, 2022
[SEPP Comment: A menace to human liberty?]
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, June 3, 2022
‘‘The scientists of the world are being ignored and it’s got to stop,’ said Peter Kalmus, a California-based father of two and NASA climate scientist. ‘We’re going to lose everything. We’re not joking. We’re not lying and we’re not exaggerating.’”
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, June 1, 2022
Link to report: The Environmental Performance Index: Ranking country performance on sustainability issues
By Staff, Yale Center for Environmental Law & Policy, Yale University, and Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Columbia University, 2022 https://epi.yale.edu/downloads/epi2022report.pdf
[SEPP Comment: Using “data-driven environmental insights” and “measuring climate performance”, these academics fail to grasp that the greenhouse effect occurs in the atmosphere and measurements of what is occurring in the atmosphere have been compiled for over 30 years, with data extending back to December 1978.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, May 31, 2022
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, June 3, 2022 https://rclutz.com/2022/06/03/how-we-got-to-climate-crisis-hysteria/
Polar bear habitat in Canada over the last decade: spring sea ice not in a death spiral By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, May 29, 2022 https://polarbearscience.com/2022/05/29/polar-bear-habitat-in-canada-over-the-last-decade- spring-sea-ice-not-in-a-death-spiral/
Change in US Administrations
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, June 3, 2022
“Yes, you need to give every politician some leeway, since most of what any politician says will fall in the general realm of political exaggeration or hyperbole. But even within the disreputable category of politicians, Biden can take the lack of connection with reality to a whole new level.”
Problems in the Orthodoxy
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 1, 2022 https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2022/06/01/waking-up-to-woke-science-2/
“Godspeed friends. But it will not be easy to get climate researchers to stop cavorting with hot models, let alone to inject some cool common sense into the world of activism and politics, particularly in the smug small town known as official Canada. But when people like Pinker and, credit where due, Hausfather, Marvel and Schmidt find the courage to speak out, it may well herald the coming of a genuine intellectual spring in the world of climate science long frozen in a blazing mess.”
U.S. Coal Output
By Robert Bryce, Real Clear Energy, June 03, 2022 https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/06/03/india_and_china_coal_production_surging_b y_700m_tons_per_year_thats_greater_than_all_us_coal_output_835483.html
By Vijay Jayaraj, Real Clear Energy, May 31, 2022 https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/05/31/indias_bad_boys_reopen_100_coal_mines_a s_demand_skyrockets_835058.html
Seeking a Common Ground
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, May 30, 2022 https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2022-5-30-new-civil-liberties-alliance-pushes-back- against-administrative-overreach
Science, Policy, and Evidence
“How the German National Socialists dealt with dissent.” By Tony Heller, His Blog, June 2, 2022 https://realclimatescience.com/2022/06/1934-fear-of-chaos/
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, June 1, 2022
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2022/06/uah-global-temperature-update-for-may-2022-0-17-deg-c/ “The linear warming trend since January 1979 still stands at +0.13 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 3, 2022
Smashed By Heavy Snows And All-Time Record-Breaking Lows By Cap Allon, Electroverse, June 1, 2022 [H/t Paul Homewood]
[SEPP Comment: Chile and Argentina, not Brazil.]
By Tony Heller, His Blog, June 2, 2022
A comment states: “And just 2 decades later the great die up wiped out the cattle industry of the great plains when tens of thousands of animals froze to death – after a super-hot summer.” [SEPP Comment: The California drought came after huge floods inundated Sacramento.]
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, June 1, 2022
“Spring 2022 saw a generous 625 hours of sunshine, which is far above the 1991-2020 mean of just 484 hours. Germany, a country generally known for dreary, rainy weather, has at least gotten a bit brighter over the past 10 years. Yet alarmists claim this is a ‘crisis’ and that a state of emergency needs to be imposed.”
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, June 1, 2022 https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/06/how-bad-was-may-could-june-be.html
“It appears that the old adage about Northwest weather will be true this year: Northwest summers start on July 12th. Only a month and a half away!”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, June 2, 2022 https://realclimatescience.com/2022/06/unprecedented-drought-new-york-times-june-1-1934/
By Tony Heller, His Blog, June 2, 2022 https://realclimatescience.com/2022/06/1976-droughts-blamed-on-global-cooling/
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 30, 2022
“As William Kinninmonth so incisively pointed out — the oceans are 4 kilometers deep and most of the water is only a few degrees above freezing, even under the tropical Pacific. There is a world of cold down there, and the layer of warm water on top is but a thin skin. If that thin skin of warm water rests undisturbed, the air can heat above. But all it takes is a change in dominant currents, or tradewinds, or some new deep sea magma vent to stir up the ocean and the top layers mix. The gargantuan deep blue blob of 3-kilometer-thick salty cold water promptly rises up and sucks the warmth out of the sky.
“The insipid weak vapor above is no match for the vast energy sink below.”
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, June 3, 2022 https://rclutz.com/2022/06/03/climate-dissonance-ocean-warming-or-cooling/ [SEPP Comment: Ignore errors. Full speed ahead!]
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, May 29, 2022
[SEPP Comment: See link above, the data are inconclusive.]
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 1, 2022 https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2022/06/01/cdn-by-the-sea-tromso-norway/
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Model pinpoints glaciers at risk of collapse due to climate change Meltwater is seeping beneath Arctic, Antarctic glaciers at higher risk of collapse By Staff, NSF, June 2, 2022
Link to paper: Glacier geometry and flow speed determine how Arctic marine-terminating glaciers respond to lubricated beds
By Whyjay Zheng, The Cryosphere, Apr 21, 2022 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/1431/2022/
From the abstract: “To validate the model, this paper calculates Pe and J0 using multi-sourced data from 1996 to 1998 for outlet glaciers in the Greenland ice sheet and Austfonna ice cap, Svalbard, and compares the results with the glacier speed change during 1996/1998–2018.” [SEPP Comment: Measurements are from 1996 to 1998, yet claims are to 2018? Does the two year trend continue for 20 years?]
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, May 30, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Is the claim of human-caused short lived?]
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
By Marlin Bohling, RFD TV, May 31, 2022 https://www.rfdtv.com/story/46602533/usda-crop-progress-report-may-31-2022 USDA: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/prog2322.pdf
By Tony Heller, His Blog, June 2, 2022 https://realclimatescience.com/2022/06/the-end-of-corn-2/
“’The case against science is straightforward: much of the scientific literature, perhaps half, may simply be untrue’– Richard Horton Lancet Editor”
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 2, 2022 https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2022/06/02/no-trends-in-hot-days-in-may- despite-met-office-misinformation/
A sequel to “The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels” doubles down on a flawed defense of oil, gas, and coal.
By Suhaas Bhat, and Connor Chung, Foreign Policy, May 28, 2022 https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/28/fossil-fuels-climate-change-energy-epstein-review/ [SEPP Comment: The students find shortcomings in Epstein’s book but ignore the shortcomings
of the work of the IPCC, the Royal Society, and NAS, that ignores advances in the measurement of the physics of the atmosphere, where the greenhouse effect occurs.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
By René Marsh, CNN, May 31, 2022
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/31/us/power-outages-electric-grid-climate-change/index.html [SEPP Comment: CNN discovers the US gets hot in the summer and cold in the winter, increasing electricity demand!]
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 1, 2022 https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2022/06/01/the-old-cane-pole/
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, June 2, 2022 https://polarbearscience.com/2022/06/02/grizzly-spotted-on-western-hudson-bay-shore-but-there- are-no-polar-bears-on-land-for-it-to-mate-with/
“There was some media-and-expert-generated excitement back in 2016 when a hunter shot what he thought might have been a grizzly/polar bear hybrid near Arviat but it turned out to be a blonde grizzly, which are not uncommon in the tundra population from which it came.”
“Contrary to some predictions, grizzly/polar bear hybrids are still quite rare (Crockford 2018:23).”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 29, 2022
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Deal will see the two nations develop and deploy technologies to speed up the clean energy transition, particularly in the areas of offshore wind power, zero-emissions vehicles and hydrogen.
By Staff, Aljazeera, May 27, 2022
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 3, 2022 https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2022/06/03/wef-elites-countries-must-reject- sovereign-interests-and-prioritize-global-agenda/
This administration is lost at sea.
By Francis Sempa, The American Spectator, May 29, 2022 [H/t WUWT] https://spectator.org/bidens-navy-secretary-the-existential-threat-is-climate-change/
By H. Sterling Burnett, Environment & Climate News, June 2, 2022 https://heartlanddailynews.com/2022/06/climate-change-weekly-436-woke-investing-gets-well- deserved-pushback/
Open markets aren’t what they used to be. A more complicated, more regional economic system is reshaping the global order.
By Ryan Heath, Politico, May 25, 2022 https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/25/world-economic-forum-davos-globalization- 00035228
Questioning European Green
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 28, 2022 https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2022/05/28/the-green-agendas-role-in-global- inflation-ben-pile-2/
“It [the video] lasts 24 minutes, but I would thoroughly recommend watching it all:”
[SEPP Comment: Those who fund ESG are making big bucksz/]
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 30, 2022
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 1, 2022 https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2022/06/01/100-companies-to-blame-for-71-of- global-emissions/
” But, of course, it is not these fossil fuel companies that emit anything, it is the people who burn the fuels.”
Questioning Green Elsewhere
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, May 31, 2022 https://ddears.com/2022/05/31/net-zero-reality-conclusions/
By Ben Pile, TCW, May 24, 2022 [H/t Paul Homewood] https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/the-green-agendas-role-in-global-inflation/
[SEPP Comment: “Green leaders” ignoring the need for reliable, affordable energy in the pursuit of the myth of reliable, affordable wind and solar..]
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 1, 2022 https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2022/06/01/we-will/
“As Charlie Chan once said, making bedfellow of serpent no protection against snakebite.”
The Political Games Continue
By Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Real Clear Energy, June 02, 2022 https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/06/02/nopec_legislation_isnt_the_answer_to_lower ing_gasoline_prices_835489.html
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, June 2, 2022 https://www.masterresource.org/wind-siting-issues/defrock-wind-litigation-central/
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
By Tony Heller, June 3, 2022 https://realclimatescience.com/2022/06/building-back-better-10/
[SEPP Comment: Video of President Obama stating that under his policies, including cap-and- trade, electricity prices will skyrocket.]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
By Bonner Cohen, CFACT, June 2, 2022
By Rachel Franzin, The Hill, June 2, 2022
Energy Issues – Non-US
By David Appleyard, Power Engineering International, Oct 31, 2015
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 1, 2022 https://joannenova.com.au/2022/06/half-the-french-nuclear-fleet-is-down/
By ZeroHedge, Oil Price.com, May 2, 2022
“The pattern across the world’s power grids is fragility due to the lack of fossil fuel investments and the reduction of fossil fuel power generation plants as grids attempt to transition to cleaner and greener power sources.”
“If grids become stressed and break down this summer, it would be an ominous sign for things to come this winter.”
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 29, 2022 https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2022/05/29/fire-up-those-coal-plants-please/ “Quite what Kwasi has in mind after 2024 is a mystery!” Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy..
Energy Issues – Australia
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 2, 2022
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 1, 2022 https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2022/06/01/bad-on-you-mate/
“And much more: ‘Australia‘s Labor Party leader, Anthony Albanese, was sworn in as the country’s 31st prime minister on Monday, promising a ‘journey of change’ as he vowed to tackle climate change, rising living costs and inequality.’ But talk is cheap. And now they have to deliver on, for instance, a pie in the sky in which Australia is ‘a renewable energy superpower’.”
Energy Issues — US
By Ines Ferré, Yahoo, May 25, 2022
[SEPP Comment: During that time, Washington has gone from one crisis to an opposite crisis: claiming the national will run out of oil to claiming the nation is using too much oil.]
By David Wojick, CFACT, June 2, 2022 https://www.cfact.org/2022/06/02/silence-of-the-power-engineers-nerc-does- nothing/?mc_cid=f83b89c264&mc_eid=ffd82d3222
By Bernard Weinstein, The Hill, May 24, 2022
Washington’s Control of Energy
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, June 1, 2022
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, June 2, 2022
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, May 28, 2022,
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, June 2, 2022
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.cor, May 31, 2022
“Russia is boosting exports to India and China, but analysts doubt the Asian market would be able to absorb all the 4 million bpd of oil Russia was sending to Europe before the war.”
Return of King Coal?
By John Hinderaker, Power Line, June 3, 2022 [H/t William Readdy] https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2022/06/goodbye-to-coal-hardly.php
Nuclear Energy and Fears
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 3, 2022
An individual comment: “France did the right thing and kept scientists out of it.
“Believe it or not… you want field scientists and engineers applying science, and not academic scientists, when you are actually putting something in for a practical purpose.
“Unfortunately, academic paper only scientists now dominate almost everywhere, which is why so little is ever achieved out of modern universities, and almost all scientific application is pushed forwarded by private engineering.”
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 1, 2022 https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2022/06/01/what-is-to-be-done/
“Somehow we think putting $5.2 out of $6.7 billion into hydrocarbons is more like “’main plan’ than ‘last resort’. But we’ll cut them some slack since they’re also apparently realizing that if you really think fossil fuels are bad yet understand that energy is good, you should be wildly enthusiastic about modern nuclear power. It may not be the best option. But it’s a sane option.”
Sometime it’s easier to solve the more general problem.
By Robert Hargraves, Real Clear Energy, June 02, 2022 https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/06/02/energy- hungry_economy_subsumes_climate_concerns_835206.html
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Jun 01, 2022 https://www.solardaily.com/reports/Solar_biomass_hybrid_system_satisfies_home_heating_requir ements_in_winter_999.html
Link to paper: Modeling and assessment of a novel solar-biomass based distributed multi- generation system featured
By Lei Xu, et al. Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy, May 31, 2022 https://aip.scitation.org/doi/full/10.1063/5.0085305
By Staff Writers, Ames IA (SPX,) Jun 01, 2022 https://www.winddaily.com/reports/As_the_grid_adds_wind_power_researchers_have_to_reengin eer_recovery_from_blackouts_999.html
Link to paper: Blackstart Capability and Survivability of Wind Turbines with Fully Rated Converters
By Hugo Nestor, et al. IEEE, May 10, 2022 https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9772330
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, May 31, 2022 https://www.masterresource.org/wind-offset-distance/residents-vs-wind-eenews/
By Staff Writers, Hannover, Germany (SPX), Jun 01, 2022 https://www.winddaily.com/reports/1500_sensors_for_the_rotor_blades_of_the_future_999.html
“Rotor blades are one of the most important components of a wind turbine. They can be up to 70 metres long and weigh between 15 and 20 tonnes.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
By Gregory Wrightstone, WUWT, June 1, 2022 https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/06/01/ethanol-a-dumb-idea-or-a-crime-or-both/ [SEPP Comment: An idea whose time has passed.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 1, 2022 https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2022/06/01/dont-count-on-evs-to-cut-ghgs/
By Simone H. Stewart, Real Clear Energy, May 31, 2022 https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/05/31/forging_a_more_just_approach_to_carbon_m anagement_834657.html
By Joseph Winters, Grist, May 23, 2022 https://grist.org/beacon/californias-ambitious-plan-for-wind-power/
Link to plan; Offshore Wind Energy Development off the California Coast: Maximum Feasible Capacity and Megawatt Planning Goals for 2030 and 2045
By Scott Flint, et al. Offshore Renewable Energy, California Energy Commission, May 6, 2022 https://www.energy.ca.gov/publications/2022/offshore-wind-energy-development-california- coast-maximum-feasible-capacity-and
[SEPP Comment: The first of four work products to be followed by “two additional reports include assessing the economic benefits of offshore wind as they relate to seaport investments and workforce development needs and standards and preparing a permitting roadmap that describes time frames and milestones for a coordinated, comprehensive, and efficient permitting process for offshore wind energy facilities and associated electricity and transmission infrastructure off the California coast.” (Dec 31, 2022) and “two additional reports include assessing the economic benefits of offshore wind as they relate to seaport investments and workforce development needs and standards and preparing a permitting roadmap that describes time frames and milestones for a coordinated, comprehensive, and efficient permitting process for offshore wind energy facilities and associated electricity and transmission infrastructure off the California coast.”]
Other News that May Be of Interest
By AFP Staff Writers, Dakar (AFP), June 1, 2022 https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Senegal_launches_contested_water_desalination_scheme_999
“The city draws most of its water from Guiers Lake, located 250 kilometres (150 miles) away in northern Senegal.
The Mamelles scheme has come under fire from critics who say the government is trying to emulate rich but arid Gulf states which have invested massively in desalination.
Desalination plants are energy-intensive, which have made them targets for environmentalists who say they contribute to climate change if they are powered by fossil fuels.”
[SEPP Comment: According to Britannica: “Senegal’s climate is conditioned by the tropical latitude of the country and by the seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ)—the line, or front, of low pressure at which hot, dry continental air meets moist oceanic air and produces heavy rainfall. The prevailing winds are also characterized by their origin: the dry winds that originate in the continental interior and the moist maritime winds that bring the rains.”
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 1, 2022 https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2022/06/01/awake-because-of-woke-science/
Bees are legally fish in California, court rules. Here’s why and what led to it By Noor Adatia, The Sacramento Bee, June 3, 2022 https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/article262045952.html
Link to press release the Xerces Society for Invertebrate Conservation: California Court Paves the Way for Protection of Imperiled Bumble Bees and Other Insects, May 31, 2022 https://xerces.org/press/california-court-paves-way-for-protection-of-imperiled-bumble-bees
Link to: Threatened and Endangered Species
Protected Under the California Endangered Species Act, California Fish and Wildlife, Accessed June 4, 2022 https://wildlife.ca.gov/Conservation/CESA#:~:text=The%20California%20Endangered%20Speci es%20Act%20(CESA)(opens%20in%20new,1984%20and%20amended%20in%201997.
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 2, 2022
“Clearly the climate crisis is a pressing mattter of life or death and the future of all humanity. The staggering results of our federal election show that this is an issue about which Australians are deeply concerned. And many medical colleges are considering the effects of climate change on their patients, with the Australian Medical Association even issuing a call to arms.”
Link to: Climate emergency must not be ignored
“The Australian Government can no longer afford to ignore the climate emergency.”
Editorial, AMA Rounds, July 15, 2021
The British startup ZELP has developed a mask for cows that filters methane. They received a climate protection award for this – Prince Charles is thrilled about the project.
By Staff, Fee West Media, May 28, 2022 [H/t Climate Depot] https://freewestmedia.com/2022/05/28/climate-madness-british-startup-releases-masks-for-cows/
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 30, 2022 https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2022/05/30/bristols-green-mayor-flies-to-canada/ “As Guido humorously points out:
“’To be fair to Rees, he’s got to take advantage of all these flashy trips while he can; his own city voted to abolish the mayoralty earlier this month. Two more years and he’s out of a job. Bristol’s own extinction rebellion…’”[Boldface in original]
By Joshua Hawkins, MSN, June 1, 2022
[SEPP Comment: In LGBTQI+ Pride Month, can’t bears have privacy?]
- Post-Ukraine Climate Realism
The problem isn’t ‘existential’ and green energy subsidies won’t fix it.
By Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., WSJ, June 3, 2022
https://www.wsj.com/articles/post-ukraine-climate-realism-lobby-groups-scientists-energy-fossil- fuel-electric-cars-wind-farms-global-warming-11654281026?mod=hp_opin_pos_3#cxrecs_s Link to working paper: The Economic Geography of Global Warming
TWTW Summary: The columnist begins:
John Kerry could be mistaken for the Black Knight in ‘Monty Python and the Holy Grail’ who, after losing all of his limbs, is still game for the fight. Mr. Kerry recently told a British newspaper that the climate battle ‘has met with an unexpected barrier, the war [in Ukraine], and it has met with an unfortunate and dangerous resurgence of business as usual by some parties that threatens the acceleration necessary to get the job done.’
Uh huh. The war in Ukraine is fundamentally irrelevant except as a crack in the political universe that perhaps allows us an unexpected chance to rediscover realism about energy and climate. Too much of what you are told by an ignorant press and politicized scientists exaggerates what is known about future warming, its consequences and the prospects for humanity to adapt.
Moreover, if climate were really an ‘existential crisis,’ which is not what the science tells us, the irony would not be small. Doubly culpable would be those lobby groups that spent the past decade selling us green energy boondoggles of little value in resisting climate change.
Let’s understand why their approach, consisting of handouts and mandates for renewables, electric vehicles and the like, hardly moves the needle. Subsidizing hot dogs might cause people to eat fewer hamburgers or pizzas—or maybe just get fatter. The same is true of subsidizing wind farms, solar panels and electric cars—it does not mean people use less fossil energy. Indeed, it creates an immediate incentive to use large amounts of fossil fuel to produce electric cars, wind
farms, etc. What’s more, if I drive an electric vehicle, more fossil energy is available for me or somebody else to live in a larger house, keep it warmer, live farther from town, jet off on more vacations.
The incentive to use something as versatile as fossil energy is not controlled by the availability of subsidized alternatives. It’s controlled by the price. Run, don’t walk, to the internet and Google up a chart of global emissions. The age of climate action has seen only a steepening upward slope. If correlation were causation, you might even think climate politics made things worse.
Or turn to a widely admired simulation by two Princeton economists last year indicating that, even out hundreds of years, the net impact of green subsidies would be ‘only a minuscule reduction in CO2 emission and temperatures.’ As if nobody already understood this, only a direct incentive not to consume fossil fuels—a carbon tax—produces a meaningful effect.
After discussing various claims about carbon taxes, the columnist concludes:
In the meantime, use the Ukraine wake-up to begin dismantling a giant cathedral of lies around the subjects of climate and energy. Imagine a future less conducive to careers like that of Joe Biden’s Securities and Exchange Commission chief, currently pushing regulations to
make public companies reflect in their disclosures the effects of climate actions that politicians won’t enact and lack the fortitude even to propose.
No subject over the past 30 years has lent itself so readily to politicians memorizing and repeating combinations of words without the slightest idea of what they are talking about. One result has been the spectacle of Mr. Kerry and his Black Knight act, descending into an ever more hopeless simulation of somebody gamely making progress when he’s not.” [Boldface added]
- When Progressives Fail, Inflation Edition
Why the public has lost confidence in claims to authority.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, June 1, 2022
TWTW Summary: The editorial begins:
“The White House is finally conceding that it made a political mistake in underestimating inflation, with some officials even offering a modified, limited mea culpa.
After bringing up that the US if facing its highest inflation rate in 40 years, the editorial concludes:
“‘I think I was wrong then about the path that inflation would take,’ Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told CNN on Tuesday, referring to a 2021 comment that there was a ‘small risk’ of inflation. ‘There have been unanticipated and large shocks to the economy that have boosted energy and food prices and supply bottlenecks that have affected our economy badly that I, at the time, didn’t fully understand, but we recognize that now.’
“Note the default to ‘large shocks’ that were ‘unanticipated.’ This is a way of blaming inflation on Ukraine and pandemic supply-chain issues that ducks the role played by the Biden
Administration’s policies. The implication is that no one anticipated those problems or the inflation they could cause.
“The truth is they were anticipated, and many people did warn about inflation. Some of those warnings appeared in these pages from conservative economists. Prominent Democratic economist Larry Summers also warned in March 2021 that too much spending and easy monetary policy could spur an excess of economic demand over supply.”