The Week That Was: 2022-02-19 (February 19, 2022)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “In God we trust, all others bring data.” – Motto of The Right Climate Stuff Team.
Number of the Week: $1289/kWh v. $0.1059/kWh
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: Using the numbers published by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Physicist Howard Hayden, a SEPP director, continues to develop a quite simple model explaining the maximum upper bound that increasing greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide, would cause if they are doubled. This TWTW describes another step in the process. The papers will be posted on the SEPP website within three weeks. Using a different approach, the Right Climate Stuff Team of Apollo veterans used an upper bound analysis. It as a rigorous a type of scientific analysis as that which got the US to the moon.
Borrowing from Hollywood publicity, the UN has begun a propaganda blitz for its upcoming, politically negotiated, final Summary for Policymakers of its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, 2021 & 2022). It promises horrors so extreme that they don’t know what they are, yet.
Keeping up with the tall tales, NOAA released a report on sea level rise along the Atlantic coast. This was quickly demolished by facts, a quaint concept that parts of NOAA have abandoned. Also discussed are further revaluations of manipulation of the European temperature record, supposedly kept in safety by NOAA. The Journal Atmosphere published a paper by a group of independent scientists, including SEPP director Willie Soon, who exposed unjustified manipulation of temperature records entrusted to NOAA. This manipulated surface data is used by climate modelers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the ill-named NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA-GISS).
A paper published by Nature Climate Change proclaimed that the US Southwest is experiencing the driest period in 1,200 years. It depends on what their definition of period is.
Matt Ridley has a thoughtful essay on why the current warming benefits humanity. Unfortunately, the IPCC and its followers forget the benefits of warming and carbon dioxide emissions in their attempts to frighten the public, especially children.
Finally, the Biden White House has come out with a “fact sheet” on industrial energy use. It is long on promised subsidies and short on facts.
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A Better Way, Continued – Equations: The Earth’s climate system involves two fluids of different viscosity (resistance to change) interacting with irregular surfaces on a spinning planet unevenly heated by the sun. This gives rise to perplexing nonlinear mathematical problems, which involve the Navier-Stokes equation. In over 150 years, there has never been an exact solution, and there is no proof that a solution is even possible. The Clay Mathematics Institute called a solution one of the seven most important open problems in mathematics and has offered $1 million as a Millennium Prize for a solution.
Despite having spent tens of millions of dollars climate modeling has stagnated. Based on observations of atmospheric temperatures, the climate modelers following the IPCC procedures make estimates that are far too high, leading to false assertions of a climate crisis. What is involved can be called the weather machine, the complex motion of the two fluids involved in convection, moving heat from the tropics to the polar regions and to space, thereby cooling the Earth.
A further problem is the notion used by the IPCC and the modelers of an Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS). Equilibrium in this case does not mean that the equator and the North Pole are at the same temperature; ECS refers to the eventual average temperature of the earth following a doubling of CO2 concentration. No one has ever yet established an equilibrium climate on this ever-changing planet. Yet, as they produce no solutions to these problems, climate modelers continue to increase their claims of what they would like the solution to be, whether it bears any resemblance to actual facts or not.
From the standpoint of astronomy, all planets are in equilibrium in the sense that they absorb heat from the sun and radiate the same amount of heat into space. The equation is called the Planetary Heat Balance, and it uses only two variables—the Total Solar Irradiance and the albedo (reflectivity) of the planet—to tell us that quantity of heat. Planet Earth absorbs and radiates 239 watts per square meter of surface.
The surface of the planet, however, radiates more infrared than the planet radiates into space. The well-established Stefan-Boltzmann radiation law tells us that the average emission from the surface is 398 watts per square meter.
The numerical difference between these two emission values is (at long last) given a symbol G by the IPCC, which also assigns the name greenhouse effect. The atmosphere is ultimately responsible for the greenhouse effect, which turns out to be 159 watts per square meter (using IPCC-approved numbers).
Hayden’s calculation amounts to equating the outgoing IR (surface radiation minus greenhouse effect) to the radiation to space from the Planetary Heat Balance equation to obtain what he calls the Climate Constraint Equation. The equation derives entirely from the conservation of energy and is therefore universal. The equation cannot make predictions of future climate, but any correct climate model must satisfy the equation.
The processes by which the atmosphere reduces the infrared from the surface to the amount that goes to space are very numerous and very complicated. Atomic/molecular/optical scientists van Wijngaarden and Happer have calculated the greenhouse by working with a third of a million spectral lines of five greenhouse gases (including CO2) and have thereby duplicated spectral measurements made from satellites. They have also repeated the calculation for doubled CO2 and found that the increase in the greenhouse effect due to that increase is about 3 watts per square meter. (IPCC has long used 3.7 watts per square meter.)
As an example, Hayden discusses IPCC’s “most probable” temperature rise due to CO2 doubling (the ECS) of 3ºC. With this temperature rise, the surface must, by the Stefan-Boltzmann law, radiate about 16.5 more watts per square meter. Since the additional greenhouse effect due to CO2 doubling is only 3.7 watts per square meter (IPCC’s value), how does the IPCC account for the 12.8 W/m2? (Spoiler alert: they don’t.) If their models were correct, some combination of increased greenhouse effect from other gases and a decrease in albedo (say, by increasing the cosmic ray flux as Svensmark suggests) would be required.
IPCC, however, does not recognize their quandary. They attribute about 80% of the increased temperature to CO2, and assert that the albedo will increase, rather than decrease.
A series of Hayden’s short climate physics papers will soon be posted on the SEPP website, and TWTW will discuss them more fully.
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Unknown Horrors: According to reports, bureaucrats representing nearly two hundred countries had a virtual meeting on February 14 to begin negotiating the definitive version of UN IPCC’s Summary for Policymakers of its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, SPM). Marlowe Hood of AFP reports:
“Nearly 200 nations kick off a virtual UN meeting Monday to finalise what is sure to be a harrowing catalogue of climate change impacts — past, present and future.”
“A crucial, 40-page Summary for Policymakers — distilling underlying chapters totaling thousands of pages, and reviewed line-by-line — is to be made public on February 28.”
Seth Borenstein and Frank Jordans report:
“Scientists and governments meet to finalise UN report on ‘nightmare’ impacts of global warming.”
What is frightening is the general incompetence of the news reporters. Unquestioningly they accept whatever the IPCC says. Yet, the physical evidence is building that the models are wrong, and the globe is not warming dangerously.
In 1812 the brothers Grimm published their first volume of stories, largely from folklore, Children’s and Household Tales, later called Grimms’ Fairy Tales. Many people thought they were unsuitable for children. But their work inspired Europeans in other cultures to collect stories from their folklore. Perhaps the upcoming IPCC Summary for Policymakers should be considered in that light. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy
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Selective Seas? NOAA has provided its own version of Grimms Fairy Tales with its “2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report.” As all too usual, it finds sea level rise where land is subsiding, and, strangely, where land is not subsiding. One can say that melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica may not cause sea level rise, depending on where one lives. Writing in ICECAP, Joseph D’Aleo explains the mystery:
“However, the new satellite and radar altimeter data lacked the resolution to accurately measure sea levels down to the mm [millimeter] level. Moreover, the raw data from this technology also conflicted with Alarmists’ claims. As a result, adjustments to this data were also made – most notably a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). GIA assumes that basically all land is rebounding from long ago glaciations and oceanic basins are deepening. The assumption is that this rebounding is masking the true sea level rise. Alarmists continue to proclaim that their models project a rapid acceleration of sea level rise over the next 30 to 70 years, when those same models have failed to even come close to accurately predicting the past 25 years.”
Nothing like adjusting data to suit one’s needs. See links under Changing Seas:
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How Good Is It? In a 2014 debate sponsored by the American Physical Society, William Collins of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and an IPCC modeler stated it was common procedure to adjust (tune) global climate models to surface temperatures, then to discard the adjustments when making predictions / projections. This is nonsense, but none-the-less it is done. Still, the question of how good the surface temperature record is remains. Tony Heller and others have demonstrated that the US data has been heavily manipulated by lowering past temperatures. There appears to be no clear record of the adjustments, thus the data are meaningless. The next largest area for which data of reasonable density exists is Europe.
The journal Atmosphere just published an article describing an investigation by independent scientists into the European surface temperature data and the results show that the data are poor – unreliable. The abstract states:
“A remarkable inconsistency in the identified breakpoints (and hence adjustments applied) was revealed. Of the adjustments applied for GHCN [Global Historical Climatology Network] Version 4, 64% (61% for Version 3) were identified on less than 25% of runs, while only 16% of the adjustments (21% for Version 3) were identified consistently for more than 75% of the runs. The consistency of PHA [“Pairwise Homogenization Algorithm] adjustments improved when the breakpoints corresponded to documented station history metadata events. However, only 19% of the breakpoints (18% for Version 3) were associated with a documented event within 1 year, and 67% (69% for Version 3) were not associated with any documented event. Therefore, while the PHA remains a useful tool in the community’s homogenization toolbox, many of the PHA adjustments applied to the homogenized GHCN dataset may have been spurious.”
The Global Historical Climatology Network is the responsibility of NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).
Francis Menton describes the problem well. He quotes NOAA and writes:
“’NOAAGlobalTempv5 is a reconstructed dataset, meaning that the entire period of record is recalculated each month with new data. Based on those new calculations, the new historical data can bring about updates to previously reported values. These factors, together, mean that calculations from the past may be superseded by the most recent data and can affect the numbers reported in the monthly climate reports.’ [Boldface in Menton.]
“Yes, ‘calculations from the past may be superseded by the most recent data.’ Huh?” This simply and plainly rewriting history and has absolutely no basis in facts.
Simply put, we don’t know how good the data record is and have no way of knowing. NOAA’s NCEI cannot be trusted with keeping records. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and the Jan 29, 2022, TWTW.
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Greatest Drought? Nature Climate Change published a paper using a new method for measuring drought, soil moisture deficit, which was used to claim the US Southwest is experiencing the worst drought since 800 AD. Meteorologist Cliff Mass points out that the duration of the greatest drought is unusual. The IPCC usually considers that for climate change to take effect, it takes at least 30 years, anything less can just be a shift in weather. Mass writes:
“Now, I am not a little surprised that none of the “curious” media stopped for a moment and asked: why did these researchers pick 22 years? Why not 25 years, 30 years, or 50 years?
“The answer is that their whole narrative, their whole claim of unusual drought, would have weakened greatly if they had used 25 years or 30 years or anything longer.”
“A NOAA website just came up and using it I have plotted the Palmer Drought Severity Index for the whole Southwest. I put a line on the year 2000. You will see that the Williams et al study selected the driest period for analysis, the optimally dry period, with a much wetter period preceding. Such a rapid transition is not the expected impact of global warming, which would tend to change temperature/moisture gradually.” [Boldface added]
Simply put, journalists who accept what scientists say without questioning and doing their own research can mislead the public. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy and Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science.
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Benefits of Carbon Dioxide: Matt Ridley has an excellent essay on some of the benefits of human emissions of carbon dioxide causing a modest warming. The benefits include the general greening of the Earth, as shown by NASA satellites, with new green leaves encompassing an area equal to three Great Britains each year. Also, there are far fewer deaths in Britain from extreme cold, a greater killer than hot weather. Globally, extreme weather deaths, heat and cold, are declining, daytime highs in the tropics are increasing very slowly.
“Globally, deaths from droughts, floods and storms are down by about 98 per cent over the past 100 years – not because weather is less dangerous but because shelter, transport and communication (which are mostly the products of the fossil-fuel economy) have dramatically improved people’s ability to survive such natural disasters.”
Rather than condemning the fossil fuels industries, the Biden and other administrations in western countries should be thanking them. Instead, they are doing whatever they can to damage these industries and the economies of their nations. See links under Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide.
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Fact Sheet? Illustrating how divorced it is from reality the White House produced a “fact sheet.” The highlights include:
“…major clean hydrogen initiatives…first-ever Buy Clean Task Force…carbon-based trade policies to reward American manufacturers of clean steel and aluminum…guidance on responsible deployment of Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Sequestration (CCUS) technologies…Initiative for Interdisciplinary Industrial Decarbonization Research…”
“$8 billion for Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs…$1 billion for a Clean Hydrogen Electrolysis Program…$1 billion for a Clean Hydrogen Electrolysis Program…”
What stood out was:
“To further support DOE’s Hydrogen Shot to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1 for one kilogram in one-decade, last week DOE announced $28 million for R&D and front-end engineering design projects to advance clean hydrogen in industrial uses, as well as the transportation and electricity sectors.”
Apparently, the “experts” behind the Hydrogen Shot do not understand that the Apollo “Moon Shot” required scientists and engineers to rigorously test their concepts against physical evidence, solid data, not manipulated fluff which is used as data today. The “fact sheet” is the stuff that pipedreams are made of. Of course, some industry executives will take all they can get. See links under Subsidies and Mandates Forever.
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Number of the Week: $1289/kWh v. $0.1059/kWh. Moss Landing, California, is the largest battery storage facility in the US at 400MW/1,600MWh capacity. A commercial facility, according to its website:
“As of February 2022, the average storage system cost in Moss Landing, CA is $1289/kWh. Given a storage system size of 13 kWh, an average storage installation in Moss Landing, CA ranges in cost from $14,246 to $19,274, with the average gross price for storage in Moss Landing, CA coming in at $16,760.”
According to the latest figures from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2020 the average cost of generating electricity in the US was $0.1059/kWh and California with high penetration of solar power at $0.1800/kWh.
Those who talk about costs of solar and wind power coming down never get around to talking about costs of storage. Now we know why. See links under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy – Storage, https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/, and https://www.energysage.com/local-data/energy-storage-cost/ca/monterey-county/moss-landing/#:~:text=Given%20a%20storage%20system%20size,CA%20coming%20in%20at%20%2416%2C760.]
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
33 controversial conclusions about energy, environmental, and climate issues
In Fossil Future, I look at the *full context* of facts about energy, environment, and climate from a *human flourishing perspective*. This leads to some very controversial conclusions.
By Alex Epstein, His Blog, Feb 4, 2022
https://alexepstein.substack.com/p/33-controversial-conclusions-from?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo3MDk1MzEsIl8iOiJPMWE0ZiIsImlhdCI6MTY0NTAyNzAwNSwiZXhwIjoxNjQ1MDMwNjA1LCJpc3MiOiJwdWItNTEzNjAxIiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.3IYHtIKcLFG1s-0u06T0M6FA4l1cqJ20LJ8eLenjtZw&r=f7h7
The Greatest Scientific Fraud Of All Time — Part XXIX
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Feb 18, 2022
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2022-2-18-the-greatest-scientific-fraud-of-all-time-part-xxix
Link to paper: Evaluation of the Homogenization Adjustments Applied to European Temperature Records in the Global Historical Climatology Network Dataset
By Peter O’Neill, et al. Atmosphere, Feb 8, 2022
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/2/285
Increasing Cold Extremes Worldwide: Is Global Cooling on the way?
By Madhav Khandekar, Ray Garnett, Frontier Centre for Public Policy, Feb 11, 2022 [H/t ICECAP]
West megadrought worsens to driest in at least 1,200 years
By Staff, ICECAP, Feb 16, 2022
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/west_megadrought_worsens_to_driest_in_at_least_1200_years1/
Link to Exceptional Years: A History of California Floods and Drought
By J.M. Guinn, The Historical Society of Southern California, 1890
Sorry, New York Times and NPR, Megadroughts Have Been Far, Far, Worse Than Today
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Feb 15, 2022
Hundreds More Papers Published In 2021 Support A Skeptical Position On Climate Alarm
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Feb 14, 2022
Main Reason Behind Europe’s “Energy Price Explosion” Is Green Policy In Europe And Germany
The major reason for Europe’s energy price explosion is green policy in Europe and Germany
By Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt (Text translated/edited by P. Gosselin), Via No Tricks Zone, Feb 16, 2022
“But the grand finale is yet to come because now fertilizer prices are also rising and with them food prices. The outlawing of oil and gas exploration by the listed western oil companies from Shell to BP through green guidelines from investors will continue to drive up oil and gas prices, but also wheat and soy prices worldwide. Only China, Russia and the Arab oil companies will profit from this.”
[SEPP Comment: Price of nitrogen fertilizer is 3 times what it was in 2020.]
Is the Southwest U.S. Experiencing a Megadrought Fueled by Global Warming?
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Feb 17, 2022
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/02/is-southwest-us-experiencing.html
Link to paper: Rapid intensification of the emerging southwestern North American megadrought in 2020–2021
By Williams, Cook & Smerdon, Nature Climate Change Feb 14, 2022
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01290-z
Stakes ‘never been higher’ in climate fight: IPCC head
By Marlowe Hood, Paris (AFP) Feb 14, 2022
https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Stakes_never_been_higher_in_climate_fight_IPCC_head_999.html
Nations to review harrowing catalogue of climate impacts
By Marlowe Hood, Paris (AFP) Feb 14, 2022
https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Nations_to_review_harrowing_catalogue_of_climate_impacts_999.html
Scientists and governments meet to finalise UN report on ‘nightmare’ impacts of global warming
By Seth Borenstein and Frank Jordans, EuroNews.green, Feb 14, 2022 [H/t Dennis Ambler]
https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/02/14/scientists-and-governments-meet-to-finalise-un-report-on-nightmare-impacts-of-global-warmi
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Climate-boosted drought in western US worst in 1,200 years
By Marlowe Hood, Paris (AFP) Feb 14, 2022
https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Climate-boosted_drought_in_western_US_worst_in_1200_years_999.html
UCLA’s Hypothetical Droughts
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 15, 2022
“Man with computer model says:”
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Before you save the planet, save the people who live on it
By Vijay Jayaraj, BizPac Review, Feb 12, 2022
https://www.bizpacreview.com/2022/02/12/before-you-save-the-planet-save-the-people-who-live-on-it-1200232/
The lack of fire next time
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 16, 2022
Energy and Environmental Review: February 14, 2022
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, Feb 14, 2022
Change in US Administrations
The Dog Days of the Biden Administration
By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, Feb 15, 2022
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Why global warming is good for us
Climate change is creating a greener, safer planet.
By Matt Ridley, Spiked, Feb 15, 2022 [H/t Ron Clutz]
CO2 Analogy to Tobacco: “Nonsense,” states James Hansen
By Robert Bradley Jr, Master Resource, Feb 18, 2022
City trees and soil are sucking more carbon out of the atmosphere than previously thought
Researchers found that trees and soils on the outermost edge of forests may have a role in fighting climate change—but the benefits might not last
Press Release, Boston University, Feb 16, 2022 [H/t WUWT]
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/943755
Link to paper: Diverging patterns at the forest edge: Soil respiration dynamics of fragmented forests in urban and rural areas
By Sarah M. Garvey, et al. Global Change Biology, Feb 15, 2022
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.16099
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Climate Action Faces Reality Check In The Energy Crisis
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, – Feb 15, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Climate-Action-Faces-Reality-Check-In-The-Energy-Crisis.html
Model Issues
Meandering Through A Climate Muddle
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Feb 18, 2022
“Bottom line? The current crop of computer climate models are far from being fit to be used to decide public policy. To verify this, you only need to look at the endless string of bad, failed, crashed-and-burned predictions that have come from the models. Pay them no attention. They are not “physics-based” except in the Hollywood sense, and they are far from ready for prime time. Their main use is to add false legitimacy to the unrealistic fears of the programmers.”
Measurement Issues — Surface
The sunburnt lands up north: Fort Smith
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 16, 2022
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
Overheated Atmosphere Update
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 18, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/02/overheated-atmosphere-update-7/
Changing Weather
Ireland, Sweden Show No January Warming Since 1988. Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Now More Than 40 Years Stable!
Charts by Kirye, Text by Pierre, No Tricks Zone, Feb 15, 2022
“There’s been no sea ice extent trend change [in Antarctica] since 1978, when satellite measurement began.”
A new assessment of extreme weather trends: hurricanes
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 16, 2022
EPA Data Shows Weather Is Less Extreme Now In The US
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 14, 2022
Blaming Their Incompetence On Climate Change
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 17, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/02/blaming-their-incompetence-on-climate-change/
[SEPP Comment: Variation in Great Lakes ice cover is not annual decline!]
Storm Eunice
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 17, 2022
“One of the saddest things about the Met Office’s determination to give every storm that passes our way a silly name is that it detracts from the really memorable events.
“In twenty years’ time, who will remember Eunice? It will just be another in a long line of run of the mill storms. By contrast, the Burns Day storm or the Great Storm of 1987 will rightly be remembered for many years to come, precisely because they were extraordinary and were rightly named as such at the time.”
[SEPP Comment; The same can be said for modern NOAA, that is destroying the superb reputation built earlier.]
Storm Eunice Update
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 18, 2022
“The Needles are a spectacular limestone formation located at the end of peninsula sticking out into the sea. The weather station is at the Old Battery, 80m above sea level at the top of the cliff overlooking the rocks below:
“Wind speeds there have no relevance at all to what is happening in the rest of the country. Moreover, the Met Office have only been measuring wind speeds there for a few years, which is why the Needles never used to appear in their weather reports. (I have asked the Met Office for the date it started. They do show wind speeds there for 1998, but it certainly was not mentioned in the Burns Day storm).”
Changing Climate
New Study: In Northern Poland The Medieval Warm Period Was 3°C Warmer Than Today
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Feb 17, 2022
Link to paper: The late-Holocene relationship between peatland water table depth and summer temperature in northern Poland
By Krzysztof Pleskot, et al. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, Jan 15, 2022
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031018221005435
Changing Climate – Cultures & Civilizations
Change In The Climate Of Great Britain [and Greenland]
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 17, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/02/change-in-the-climate-of-great-britain/
Lost Viking ‘highway’ revealed by melting ice
1,000-year-old horseshoes, sleds, and tools are emerging from a shrinking ice patch in Norway, telling the story of the rise and fall of a mountain pass and the people who traveled along it.
By Erin Blakemore, National Geographic, Apr 15, 2020
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/article/lost-viking-highway-revealed-melting-ice
[SEPP Comment: It never occurs to the journalists that if climate has been stable for 2000 years, as claimed by the IPCC, how did these items get there?]
Changing Seas
U.S. Could See a Century’s Worth of Sea Level Rise in Just 30 Years
By Seth Borenstein, AP, Feb 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://time.com/6148410/noaa-us-sea-level-rise/
Link to National Ocean Service podcast and text: 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report
By Mark Osler, NOAA’s Senior Advisor for Coastal Inundation and Resilience, and William Sweet, an oceanographer and scientist, NOAA, 2022
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/podcast/feb22/nop52-sea-level-rise.html
[SEPP Comment: If you believe that melting ice causes seas to rise differently in different parts of the US.]
NOAA Ocean Service: 2022 The Next 30 Years of Sea Level Rise – junk science
By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, ICECAP, Feb 17, 2022
Sea level projected to rise a foot on US coasts by 2050
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Feb 15, 2022
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/594344-sea-level-projected-to-rise-a-foot-on-us-coasts-by-2050
Link to report: U.S. coastline to see up to a foot of sea level rise by 2050: Report projects a century of sea level rise in 30 years
By Staff, NOAA, Feb 15, 2022
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-coastline-to-see-up-to-foot-of-sea-level-rise-by-2050
See link immediately above.
Sorry CNN, Regardless of Human Activity, Coastlines Grow and Retreat
By Linnea Lueken, Climate Realism, Feb 11, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Graph shows the approximate US east coastline 20,000 years ago and landward limit over the past 5 million years.]
The Brazil resort town disappearing into the sea
By Eugenia Logiuratto, Atafona, Brazil (AFP) Feb 14, 2022
https://www.terradaily.com/reports/The_Brazil_resort_town_disappearing_into_the_sea_999.html
[SEPP Comment: See links above for changing US Atlantic coastline, which applies to Brazil as well.]
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
The War On Food
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 18, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/02/the-war-on-food/
[SEPP Comment: Podcast exposing the fake news of agriculture adversely affecting climate including confusing nitrogen (N2) with nitrous oxide, (N2O)]
Lowering Standards
The ice cracks
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 16, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
AP Take The Climate Bribe!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 15, 2022
“Well at least they’re honest!”
“This far-reaching initiative will transform how we cover the climate story,” Pace said.
The grant is for more than $8 million over three years, and about 20 of the climate journalists will be new hires. The AP has appointed Peter Prengaman as its climate and environment news director to lead the team.
Five organizations are contributing to the effort: the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Quadrivium, the Rockefeller Foundation and the Walton Family Foundation.
It’s the most recent of a series of grants the AP has received since the mid-2010s to boost coverage in health and science, religion, water issues and philanthropy itself. Some 50 AP journalists have jobs funded through grants.
CBS’s 60 Minutes Uncorks an Old Wine Tale, Falsely Claiming Climate Change Is Causing a Wine Apocalypse, Again!
By H. Sterling Burnett, Climate Realism, Feb 15, 2022
And great was the fall of it
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 16, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Beach erosion in the Outer Banks of North Carolina has been a problem for decades. The sands that make up the barrier islands appear and disappear. The press doesn’t bother with history.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Dessler on Koonin: Cancel Culture at Work
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Feb 17, 2022
How the fossil fuel industry is pushing plastics on the world
By Katie Brigham, CNBC, Feb 1, 2022
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/29/how-the-fossil-fuel-industry-is-pushing-plastics-on-the-world-.html
[SEPP Comment: How is the rest of the world forced to buy it?]
Nighttime wildfires growing in frequency, intensity: study
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Feb 16, 2022
https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/594521-nighttime-wildfires-growing-in-frequency-intensity-study
Link to paper: Warming weakens the night-time barrier to global fire
By Jennifer Balch, et al. Nature, Feb 16, 2022
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-04325-1
“Globally, night fires have become 7.2 per cent more intense from 2003 to 2020, measured via a satellite record.”
[SEPP Comment: Exactly how is it measured?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
British colonisation of Australia 250 years ago to blame for recent wildfires
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 18, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Does it apply to other parts of the world such as the wildfires in California?]
Zac’s tall stories [MP Zac Goldsmith]
By Staff, Net Zero Watch, Feb 14, 2022
“So even if Goldsmith is right (he isn’t), we might only be talking about 150 pads, occupying 1000 acres. Compare this to the minister’s enthusiasm for taking 150,000 acres out of agricultural production to cover it in solar panels.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
BBC Climate Check–Jan 2022
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 17, 2022
“Ben Rich does his usual job of presenting a few assorted bad weather events, claiming that they are somehow tied into climate change, but without providing the slightest evidence.
He finishes:
“’And 2022 has already seen extremes of weather around the globe, which are likely to become more frequent as the world continues to warm’
“It is time this propaganda was taken off air.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Net Zero Watch welcomes new guidance on impartiality in schools and will monitor compliance
By Staff, Net Zero Watch, Feb 18, 2022
UK School Bans Meat Products Because Climate Change
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 15, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
David Attenborough and his ‘Great Reset’ WEF cronies hit a big Canadian roadblock
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Feb 17, 2022
Tamara Lich, I’m Not Afraid
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Feb 19, 2022
Rock Star Truckers
Members of the public are showering the truckers with thanks. And with food, fuel, and cash.
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Feb 14, 2022
Trudeau declares all Truckers, Donors and honkers are terrorists, seize their bank accounts
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 15, 2022
Expanding the Orthodoxy
German government picks Greenpeace chief, a US citizen, as its new climate envoy
By Ivana Kottasová, CNN, Feb 9, 2022
https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/09/europe/jennifer-morgan-greenpeace-german-climate-envoy-intl/index.html
“The climate crisis was a major topic during the election campaign last year, partly because the country experienced deadly floods, which scientists described as a one-in-500-year weather event.”
[SEPP Comment: Yet flood records show similar or worse floods occurred in 1910 and 1804]
Methane in the dock
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 16, 2022
Questioning European Green
As Germany’s Green Dream Becomes A Nightmare, Asia And Russia Power Ahead With Nuclear Power
Asia goes nuclear while Europe goes bust
By Fred F. Mueller, No Tricks Zone, Feb 13, 2022
How to Solve Europe’s Energy Crisis
By Sam Buchan, Real Clear Energy, Feb 14, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/02/14/how_to_solve_europes_energy_crisis_816686.html
Can they keep the lights on? Energy prices rise across Europe.
As energy prices soar across Europe, households are feeling the squeeze and small businesses are struggling to stay open. In Turkey, where rising energy costs are compounded by a drop in currency value, upset over electricity prices has erupted into protests.
By Ayse Wieting and Suzan Fraser Associated Press, Feb 11, 2022
https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2022/0211/Can-they-keep-the-lights-on-Energy-prices-rise-across-Europe?icid=rss
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Green hypocrisy hurts the poorest
The West’s war on energy is crippling Africa
By Joel Kotkin and Hugo Kruger, UnHerd, Feb 14, 2022
https://unherd.com/2022/02/green-hypocrisy-hurts-the-poorest/
The West’s Climate Policies Invite Third World Conditions
By Vijay Jayaraj, Real Clear Energy, Feb 14, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/02/14/the_wests_climate_policies_invite_third_world_conditions_816706.html
How US policies contribute to high energy prices
By Jeffrey Kupfer, The Hill, Feb 15, 2022
https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/594324-how-us-policies-contribute-to-high-energy-prices?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Green Jobs
Shifting Natural Gas and Oil Jobs to the Renewables Sector Isn’t So Simple
By Stephanie Catarino Wissman, Real Clear Energy, Feb 16, 2021
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/02/16/shifting_natural_gas_and_oil_jobs_to_the_renewables_sector_isnt_that_simple_817129.html
Funding Issues
ESG And The Dangerous Structural Increase In The Price Of Oil
By Jude Clemente, Forbes, Feb 13, 2022
https://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2022/02/13/esg-and-the-dangerous-structural-increase-in-the-price-of-oil/?sh=1a17dcf1757b
Litigation Issues
Federal District Court Enjoins Use Of The “Social Cost Of Carbon”
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Feb 13, 2022
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2022-2-13-federal-district-court-enjoins-use-of-the-social-cost-of-carbon
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Conservatives Should Get on Board With Carbon Pricing
By Kelsey Grant, Real Clear Energy, Feb 14, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/02/14/conservatives_should_get_on_board_with_carbon_pricing_816713.html
“The best counterpoint to any bad idea is a better one.”
[SEPP Comment: The best counterpoint to a destructive tax is a less destructive one?]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Biden administration announces green manufacturing push
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Feb 15, 2022
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/594217-biden-administration-announces-green-manufacturing-push
Link to “Fact Sheet: Biden-Harris Administration Advances Cleaner Industrial Sector to Reduce Emissions and Reinvigorate American Manufacturing”
By Staff, The White House, Feb 15, 2022
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/15/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-advances-cleaner-industrial-sector-to-reduce-emissions-and-reinvigorate-american-manufacturing/
What one utility CEO said after Biden left the room
By Maxine Joselow, Vanessa Montalbano, MSN, Feb 12, 2022
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/what-one-utility-ceo-said-after-biden-left-the-room/ar-AATH9ZN
[SEPP Comment: More special tax breaks and subsidies for unreliable electricity!]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Testimony Before The Feb. 25, 2022 Meeting Of The Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee
To discuss the Draft CASAC Report on EPA’s Draft Supplement to the 2019 Integrated Science Assessment (ISA) for PM and the Draft CASAC Report on EPA’s Draft PM Policy Assessment (PA).
By Tom Golab, ACSH, Feb 15, 2022
https://www.acsh.org/news/2022/02/15/testimony-feb-25-2022-meeting-clean-air-scientific-advisory-committee-16132
Energy Issues – Non-US
Britain needs shale gas now. For consumers and for national security
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Feb 14, 2022
Link to paper: Restarting UK Shale Gas
By Tim Worstall, Net Zero Watch, 1922
Amid energy crisis, UK Government uses Regulatory Death Curse on gas industry
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 14, 2022
Rachel Millard’s Puff Piece For Octopus Energy
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 18, 2022
“It is generally accepted that heat pumps need to be run all day to keep heat up to a reasonable level, so the idea that you just turn them on at night is absurd. If you do, your house would be stone cold all day.
“But does their Agile Tariff even save money even then? Not according to their Octopus’ own data.”
Energy Issues — US
Electricity Consumption Will Grow Again
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Feb 15, 2022
Washington’s Control of Energy
Gas pipeline regulators to consider climate impacts for new projects
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Feb 17, 2022
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/594832-gas-pipeline-regulators-to-consider-climate-impacts-for-new
New Faces on a Vital National Commission Could Help Speed a Clean Energy Transition
With two Biden moves, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is more likely to favor Democrats, who want it to respond to the booming demand for renewable energy.
By James Bruggers, Inside Climate News, Feb 15, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Towards more energy poverty!]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Canadian Oil Exports To U.S. At Record Level
By Charles Kennedy, Oil Price.com, Feb 11, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Canadian-Oil-Exports-To-US-At-Record-Level.html
Cited report: Canadian oil barrels head out of the U.S. Gulf in record numbers
By Stephanie Kelly and Nia Williams, Reuters, Feb 11, 2022
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/canadian-oil-barrels-head-out-us-gulf-record-numbers-2022-02-11/
US natural gas producer says prices are surging due to lack of adequate pipeline structure
EQT CEO Toby Rice reveals canceled pipeline projects have restricted 10% of US nat gas
By Angelica Stabile, FOX Business, Feb 15, 2022
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-natural-gas-producer-says-prices-surging-due-to-lack-of-adequate-pipeline-structure
“Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., alongside other Democratic lawmakers, have recently called on the Department of Energy to cut exports of liquefied natural gas in an attempt to calm pricing.”
[SEPP Comment: An example of Washington thinking. Blame the problems Washington causes on those who try to solve them.]
Return of King Coal?
China puts coal plants at full capacity, even as it touts hosting a ‘green’ Olympics
By Bill Chappell, NPR, Feb 26, 2022
https://www.npr.org/2022/02/16/1081141189/china-coal-olympics-environment
Nuclear Energy and Fears
In the midst of an energy crisis the government drags its heels on nuclear – again
By John Constable, Net Zero Watch, Feb 17, 2022
The Global Energy Policy Problem No One Wants To Acknowledge
By Haley Zaremba, Oil Price.com, Feb 13, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Nuclear-Power/The-Global-Energy-Policy-Problem-No-One-Wants-To-Acknowledge.html
[SEPP Comment: Nuclear waste, another problem so overblown that solution becomes impossible?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Gargantuan solar farms threaten UK farming and food security
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Feb 13, 2022
Link to paper: Solar Energy and the Threat to Food Security
By John Constable, Net Zero Watch, 2022
“The solar industry has recently (January 2022) disclosed that it believes there is some 37GW of solar capacity in various stages of planning, which would entail an approximate land take of 150,000 acres.”
Solar-powered system offers a route to inexpensive desalination
Passive solar evaporation system could be used to clean wastewater, provide potable water, or sterilize medical tools in off-grid areas.
By David L. Chandler, MIT News, Feb 14, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://news.mit.edu/2022/solar-desalination-system-inexpensive-0214
Link to paper: Highly efficient and salt rejecting solar evaporation via a wick-free confined water layer
By Lenan Zhang, et al. Nature Communications, Feb 14, 2022
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-28457-8
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
U.S. corn-based ethanol worse for the climate than gasoline, study finds
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 17, 2022
Link to research article: Environmental outcomes of the US Renewable Fuel Standard
By Tyler J. Lark, et al. PNAS, March 1, 2022
https://www.pnas.org/content/119/9/e2101084119
From the abstract: ‘These changes increased annual nationwide fertilizer use by 3 to 8%, increased water quality degradants by 3 to 5%, and caused enough domestic land use change emissions such that the carbon intensity of corn ethanol produced under the RFS is no less than gasoline and likely at least 24% higher.’
From Homewood: “Naturally the renewable lobby are keen to rubbish the study, and it may be that the truth lies somewhere between the new claims and the USDA study.
“Either way it is now obvious that if there are any savings in emissions, they are tiny.
“What I find particularly compelling about the new analysis is its source, the University of Wisconsin-Madison Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, rather than a oil industry funded think tank. You might think they would be firmly anti fossil-fuel.
“With the EU continuing to mandate higher proportions of ethanol in the fuel mix, it is surely time to call a halt on this huge policy error, and start to cut back on ethanol use.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Another Grid Scale Battery Fire “Incident”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 17, 2022
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Pay-per-mile road charging ‘threatens electric car sales’
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 18, 2022
“There is also the ultimate irony here. If the government is successful in reducing car use, as they have already officially acknowledged, how will they replace the lost revenue? By putting up road charges even more?
“As with so much about Net Zero, we are only just beginning to learn about the very real obstacles on the road.”
Shipping News
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Feb 18, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Another question: what started the fire? Electric vehicle batteries?]
California Dreaming
“‘Fuel of the Year’ Syndrome:” Methanol in California Revisited
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Feb 15, 2022
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Hotspots shed light on ‘flash drought’ causes
Work could lay the groundwork for predicting flash droughts
Press Release, NSF, Feb 15, 2022
https://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?WT.mc_id=USNSF_1&cntn_id=304458&utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery
[SEPP Comment: Watch out for one hour flash droughts!]
Oh that’s original
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 16, 2022
[SEPP Comment: “Conservatives” rallying around a white flag?]
ARTICLES
1. Greenland’s Melting Ice Is No Cause for Climate-Change Panic
The annual loss has been decreasing in the past decade even as the globe continues to warm.
By Steven E. Koonin, WSJ, Feb. 17, 2022
https://www.wsj.com/articles/greenland-melting-ice-panic-sheets-global-warming-variance-seal-level-rise-climate-change-carbon-fossil-fuel-11645131739?mod=opinion_lead_pos6
TWTW Summary: The professor at New York University begins :
“One of the most sacred tenets of climate alarmism is that Greenland’s vast ice sheet is shrinking ever more rapidly because of human-induced climate change. The media and politicians warn constantly of rising sea levels that would swamp coastlines from Florida to Bangladesh. A typical headline: “Greenland ice sheet on course to lose ice at fastest rate in 12,000 years.”
With an area of 660,000 square miles and a thickness up to 1.9 miles, Greenland’s ice sheet certainly deserves attention. Its shrinking has been a major cause of recent sea-level rise, but as is often the case in climate science, the data tell quite a different story from the media coverage and the political laments.
The chart nearby [not shown here] paints a bigger picture that is well known to experts but largely absent from the media and even from the most recent United Nations climate report. It shows the amount of ice that Greenland has lost every year since 1900, averaged over 10-year intervals; the annual loss averages about 110 gigatons. (A gigaton is one billion metric tons, or slightly over 2.2 trillion pounds.) That is a lot, but that water has caused the planet’s oceans to rise each year by only 0.01 inch, about one-fifth the thickness of a dime.
After discussing alarming projections by the IPCC and other, the article concludes:
“While a warming globe might eventually be the dominant cause of Greenland’s shrinking ice, natural cycles in temperatures and currents in the North Atlantic that extend for decades have been a much more important influence since 1900. Those cycles, together with the recent slowdown, make it plausible that the next few decades will see a further, perhaps dramatic slowing of ice loss. That would be inconsistent with the IPCC’s projection and wouldn’t at all support the media’s exaggerations.
“Much climate reporting today highlights short-term changes when they fit the narrative of a broken climate but then ignores or plays down changes when they don’t, often dismissing them as ‘just weather.’
“Climate unfolds over decades. Although short-term changes might be deemed news, they need to be considered in a many-decade context. Media coverage omitting that context misleadingly raises alarm. Greenland’s shrinking ice is a prime example of that practice.
“If Greenland’s ice loss continues to slow, headline writers will have to find some other aspect of Greenland’s changes to grab our attention, and politicians will surely find some other reason to justify their favorite climate policies.”
*****************
2. Europe’s Net-Zero Carbon Crackup Begins Ahead of Schedule
Politicians everywhere will rue the day they tried to enlist financial markets to do their green bidding.
By Joseph C. Sternberg, WSJ, Feb. 10, 2022
https://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-net-zero-crackup-climate-change-natural-gas-nuclear-prices-boris-johnson-esg-sunak-european-commission-green-energy-11644509997?mod=opinion_featst_pos3
TWTW Summary: The journalist begins:
“At the end of last year, I predicted that 2022 would be the year politicians stepped back from the climate-policy cliff. I allowed too much time. It happened in January.
“Or rather, January was the month the political class decided they wanted to step away from the cliff. Now we wait to see if they can.
“The European Commission, the bureaucratic wing of the European Union in Brussels, moved on New Year’s Eve to classify natural gas and nuclear as potential green energy sources in a ‘taxonomy’ designed to steer government spending and private investment. It has stuck by that decision despite noisy protests from environmentalists. This is a recognition that foreclosing investment in proven, reliable technologies amid a once-in-a-generation energy price crisis is creating a political nightmare.
“Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net-zero fixation has become the biggest threat to his political future, a far more serious danger than any lockdown-defying birthday party. British households last week discovered their home electricity and natural-gas bills could shoot up by 54% come April as a regulatory price cap adjusts to market realities. Energy costs for commercial premises are a separate crisis, as rapidly escalating electricity and natural-gas prices squeeze small businesses and large manufacturers alike.
“Real politics finally is breaking out in response. A group of lawmakers from Mr. Johnson’s Conservative Party have formed a caucus to vent their skepticism of Mr. Johnson’s net-zero ambitions, while Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak professes his enthusiasm for more North Sea drilling. The left-wing Guardian newspaper trotted out climate-change scaremonger Michael Mann to brand this effort a ‘culture war.’ Which is how we now describe any effort to repoliticize questions of economic and social trade-offs that an axis of technocrats, activists and media had tried to assume unto itself.”
The author discusses that fossil fuels are cheap compared to alternatives before concluding:
“This is taking two forms today. Astronomical energy prices are the mechanism by which consumption based on carbon (whether of energy or of any product whose manufacture or distribution requires carbon—which is most products) can be suppressed while diverting resources to research and development in green technologies. Second, someone must induce financial investment to shift to green purposes, even if investors otherwise would have concluded that strategy doesn’t maximize returns. Retirees or anyone else whose consumption is based on income from investment may have to receive less income and therefore consume less in order to subsidize capital allocation to green ends.
“No wonder politicians are fleeing. Witness a kerfuffle, again in the U.K., over taxing the “windfall profits” of oil-and-gas majors such as BP and Shell, which recently announced bumper earnings. The companies are accused of gouging consumers, but the actual plan as announced to their shareholders is to plow carbon profits into an expanding portfolio of green projects.
“This is possible only by shifting resources away from consumers via higher prices. Whoops. Any form of consumption tax, whether by levy or by price-raising regulation, is highly regressive. Calls by Britain’s Labour Party for a windfall-profits tax to redistribute those reinvestable profits back to consumers, in contravention of the whole point of net-zero policies, mark an admission that climate mitigation is an impending political train wreck. Maybe one day the left will understand what they themselves are saying here.
Can the train be stopped? Politicians will try, and are due to get a reminder about the importance of long-term thinking. Boosting energy supply depends on persuading investors that politicians support long-term investments. Net zero comes with a deadline of 2050, but that needs to be scrapped right now for investors to be willing to finance capital-intensive projects with long enough lives to be useful.
“The danger is that investors won’t be willing to do that when politicians belatedly come begging. Recent years have seen a concerted effort by climate activists and various enthusiastic enablers in the financial world to co-opt private capital in pursuit of green aims. Hence the rise of so-called ESG investing—the E standing for “environmental.” Politicians in their more foolish moments have been happy to help, as with efforts to embed such principles in financial regulation.
“The political class will be sorry as this shift makes it harder for politicians to assuage angry voters. The EU’s taxonomy is meant to subvert the ESG push by encouraging investors to treat natural gas and nuclear as green. Investors intoxicated by their own virtue signaling might not be encourageable. “Investors may now need to consider going further than the taxonomy requires in order to align with net zero,” Stephanie Pfeifer of the Institutional Investors Group for Climate Change, an umbrella group for pension funds and other asset managers, said recently.
“The politicians’ challenge is to wrest well-functioning energy and financial markets back from a financial, activist and media class that seems unshaken by the anticonsumption, income-redistribution miseries their agenda is inflicting. Culture war, indeed.”
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