Weekend Bet: Golovkin vs Murata

IBHOF boxing and boxing gambler Graham Houston looks for betting value in Saturday’s middleweight unification clash between Gennadiy Golovkin and Ryota Murata.

I’m seeing a real opportunity for Ryota Murata to cause a big disappointment against Gennadiy Golovkin in their middleweight title match in Japan.

Obviously, GGG has to be considered as a most beloved company. His achievements speak for themselves. He’s definitely a first-vote Hall of Famer, while Murata lost to Hassan N’Dam (admittedly on a controversial decision) and lost nearly every round in his first meeting with Rob Brant .

On paper, Golovkin is on another level.

However, for me, it’s not quite that simple.

Golovkin still looks great physically, but he is already 40 years old.

I’m not sure how many people are allowed into the arena in Saitama during the Covid 19 era, but I expect all available seats to be sold out. The crowd will be right behind Murata, trying to help him win,

Golovkin has been boxing professionally for 15 years and he has had a long amateur career at the top level. He had two tough games against Canelo Alvarez. The fight with Daniel Jacobs wasn’t a walk in the park. The fight between GGG and Sergiy Derevyanchenko in October 2019 was a fight. Derevyanchenko landed his right arm in the skirmish, especially in the 10th round. If GGG hadn’t eliminated Derevyanchenko in the first round, it would have been a majority decision.

I am seeing value in the Betfred rate of 4/1 (+400) offered on Murata.

I think GGG has started to show its age in the fight with Derevyanchenko. The fight seemed to slip out of his hands a few times. In consensus scoring (where two or all three judges agree on how a round should be scored), the score is 7-5 in innings in favor of GGG. So Derevyanchenko almost fought with Golovkin even steven.

Let’s look at Murata. Of course an Olympic gold medalist. He’s 35 years old but he hasn’t taken a lot of damage – he’s only had 16 pro fights after all. Murata hasn’t fought in 27 months but this type of inactivity is not unusual in this time of pandemic.

Murata stands 6ft. He is a large man, of average weight. He can punch. He lost to N’Dam in a decisive match but I think the boxing world knows that N’Dam was lucky to get the nod. Murata crushed N’Dam in seven innings in the rematch. The loss to Rob Brant now seems inexplicable. He knocked out Brant in two innings in the rematch.

Obviously Golovkin is a superb technician, but Murata knows how to fight. Murata can be a little one-sided but that one-way can be effective – steady pressure and firm, well-positioned punches. There’s nothing strange about Murata, no “special effects” as Floyd Mayweather would say. But when preparing to fight, he can be resolute and hard to give up.

I’m really worried about Murata’s lack of defense. He can be quite easy to hit with his right hand. Steven Butler was able to land his right arm with ease in the opening round of their fight. But Murata has proven that he has a good chin. I can’t remember ever seeing him shaken or injured.

I think Murata is one of those fighters who needs a chance to bring out the best in him. The rematch between N’Dam’s Murata and Brant is a different animal from the one who appeared in the original encounters.

If Murata wins against Golovkin, he will have to fight the fight of his life and GGG will have to slip somewhat from the two-time Canelo boxer down the line. Basically, the stars and planets will have to align. However, I have a feeling that Murata will have a chance to flourish. I think there’s a chance that, on that night, Murata might simply want more of it.

Of course, I have the utmost respect for GGG, but when the boxer gets to 40 or close to that, he can lose at any moment.

No matter what happens, I believe Murata will give it his all. As a straight pick, I would have to go with GGG, but with odds of +400 or higher on betting platforms, I’m taking my chance for Murata to settle the big sadness.

So I made an unexpected case. But you might be thinking, “I can’t stand GGG. He’s a great fighter even as he’s getting old. ”

OK, fair enough, I get that. What about other bets? I think over 9.5 rounds at an overall price of 5/6 (-120) is a pretty good look. I see a long, tiring fight here. GGG never seemed to stop Danny Jacobs or Sergiy Derevyanchenko, and Murata is a tough guy who can rise to the occasion. And I don’t think “fighting far” at 2/3 (+150) is the worst idea in the world.

The house’s most likely outcome is GGG by KO/TKO at 5/8 (-160). GGG decided that the overall price was 5/2 (+250).

But what if nothing tempts you, and you’re looking for just a small, long-term bet just to get some sort of action? Well, decidedly Murata cost 13/2 (+650) and that’s not out of the question.