In North Carolina, it’s been a warm winter with a month of cool, snowy weather in between. So How is our weather? in the past 3 months, what statistics statewide show and what we can expect when we enter the spring?
Our winter models
In ours winter outlook Since November, we have a moderate La Niña event that has developed for the second year in a row. That pattern often sees a weakening and northward displacement of the jet streamresulting in warmer and drier conditions across the Southeastern United States, including North Carolina.
Our expectations for this winter have balanced those typical effects – often amplified in the second half of a retrograde or “double” event – with our decidedly La Niña likeness. winter 2020-21which wetter than usual.
Finally, this year’s winter shows a lot of La Niña fingerprints, but there’s also a noticeable difference from that model during our most wintery weeks.
December to be especially warm throughout the southern and eastern United States, including the 2nd warmest recorded in North Carolina. It is also a dry month in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic, with wetter conditions north of us through the Ohio Valley in a classic La Niña rain pattern.
While La Niña remained stable until midwinter, a shift in large-scale patterns near home caused a major shift in January weather. Start with our abrupt cool down on 3 months 1the polar jet stream dives south, blocking the warmer air over our south while cold air comes in from the north.
With that setting, the storm’s path also shifts southward, which allows frequent rain in both liquid and frozen form. That includes four snow events over a four-week period in the Triplet for the first time since January 2000.
The final battle of our winter tug of war has arrived February as the subtropical jet stream returns over the eastern United States, leaving us generally warmer. While some cold fronts moved in from the west, most have dried up as they crossed the Mountains, placing Piedmont and the Coastal Plain in model drier.
Seasonal statistics
With two warm, dry months on both sides of which are cool and wet, this year’s winter has been on average warm and dry overall. According to the National Center for Environmental Information, the three-month period from December 2021 to February 2022 ranks 15th warmest and 33rd driest winter since 1895.
The statewide average temperature of 45.0°F is 2.2°F above the average from 1991 to 2020. Five of our top fifteen warmest winters occurred during the year. past seven years.
Rainfall averaged 9.53 inches, 1.62 inches below the recent 30-year average. It broke a streak of three consecutive wet winters, and was our driest winter since 2016-17.
In Charlotteit ranks as the 9th warmest winter since 1878, and Greensboro had the 10th warmest winter on record since 1903.
The Triad is also one of the only regions with seasonal rainfall equal to or higher than normal. Greensboro is 0.7 inches wetter than usual in winter, partly due to the liquid contribution of the 8.2 inch layer of snow there..
Elsewhere, rainfall departures ranged from lower-than-normal levels – like a seasonal shortfall of 0.6 inches in Raleigh – a near 3-inch deficit at the coast. Wilmington 2.9 inches lower than normal and New Bern 2.6 inches below normal, this is the 15th driest winter since 1948.
Total snowfall varies greatly across the state, even in our three regions. While the Northern Coastal Plain has a total of 8 inches, mostly from January 21 eventthe south coast saw freezing rain that day and little or no snow accumulation during the season.
The southern and eastern Piedmont get less snow than northern and western regions like the Triad, but this is still the snowiest winter in the country. Charlotte since 2013-14, for a total of 4.3 inches. 2.7 inches of snow in Raleigh only about half of the 1991 to 2020 annual average of 5.2 inches, but this is the highest in a single winter there in three years.
With a cumulative total of 10.6 inches, Asheville barely exceed the annual average of 10.3 inches, although most of that comes from a single event across the globe. January 16. Elk Banner totaling just over two feet – 24.3 inches – this winter, mostly from four events in January.
While that snowy January was a fruitful month for some areas, beyond that winter month, this winter is very unlikely to see any snow. That is most obvious in Mount Mitchell, the highest point in our state and the site of the snowiest climate. An average of 89.1 inches of snow per year, but receiving only 43.9 inches this winter – and no measurable snow in December or February.
Of course, it only takes a month of activity – or even a single event – to produce a snowy winter, even in a La Niña year. The winter of 2017-18 also generally ranks as warm and dry, but there are some wither events in January. And the winter of 1999-2000 was also warm and dry, but quite memorable due to the succession of January snowstorms, including 20 inch blizzard in Raleigh.
As unstable human consciousness favors a few moments of impact over a few monotonous weeks, the winter of 2021-22 is likely to recall memories of January weekend winter storms, over is the prevailing warmth that dominates the rest of the Season.
Spring outlook
Even last November, some people across the state were thinking ahead to spring. Drought in the fall with the prospect of a dry winter ahead, concerns are growing that soil moisture may not be enough for planting and wildfires will light up the landscape as spring weather warms. than come.
At that time, we provided more optimistic outlook:
Thanks to lower evaporation and irrigation needs, cool-season rainfall helps maintain soil moisture, streams and lake levels, so we can even endure a drier winter without did not significantly degrade drought conditions.
That became the most talked-about statement in our winter outlook. After a dry December, January’s rainfall has improved widespread drought conditions, and the US Current Drought Monitor shows most areas are better off than they were in winter.
Soil moisture are generally at or above the 50th percentile and are adequate for planting, with values lowest in parts of the Sand Dunes and Coastal Plains, where sandy soils cannot effectively hold moisture near the surface.
Recent dry weather in eastern North Carolina has raised concerns about drought and the current ENSO outlook shows La Niña capable of surviving the spring. However, that does not guarantee that we are moving deeper into the drought.
La Niña’s effects on North Carolina tend to be less pronounced in the spring than in the winter. Of the eleven mild La Niña events since 1950, nine had dry winters but only six had below-average rainfall the following spring.
Our average winter precipitation during those mild La Niña events was 1.76 inches below the long-term average from 1901 to 2000, but that deficit dropped to 0.53 inches in the spring.
Climate Prediction Center of outlook for March to May continued to show a 40 to 50% chance of higher-than-normal temperatures in the southern part of the United States, but no strong signal of dry or wet conditions common across most of North Carolina.
With recent dry conditions in some spots and a slightly dry signal associated with an ongoing La Niña, the National Interagency Fire Center predicts above-normal considerable wildland fire potential for North Carolina in April. It’s also our most popular month for wildfires because warmer temperatures can quickly dry out vegetation and some trees haven’t turned out or turned green until then.
If our recent pattern continues, with sections ahead from the west drying out as they cross the Mountains, drought is likely to remain or expand in parts of the Piedmont and Coastal Plains. But even some events with widespread rain could slow or reverse any degradation – and forecast for next week calls for multiple events totaling as little as an inch and a half statewide.
Overall, La Niña winter weather is pretty good, powered by January’s rain and snow. While we haven’t been out of the woods yet, they haven’t caught on fire, as some feared last fall. Now, we expect more humidity in March and showers in April so that May flowers – and crops – can be lush and bright later this spring.
