A Ukrainian oil tanker nears an undisclosed frontline position in eastern Ukraine on November 28, 2022, amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Yevhen Titov | afp | beautiful pictures
The Director of National Intelligence said that US intelligence expects the pace of fighting in Ukraine to slow over the next few months and has seen no evidence that Ukraine’s will to resist is waning, despite the attacks. into the power grid and other critical infrastructure during the winter, the Director of National Intelligence said Saturday.
Avril Haines said at the annual Reagan Defense Forum in California: “We’re seeing a kind of conflict that has slowed down… and we think that’s probably what we see in the past few years. next month”.
She said both Ukrainian and Russian militaries will try to re-equip and resupply in preparation for a post-winter counterattack, but there is a question of what that will look like, adding: We really have a skeptical counterattack as to whether the Russians are in fact willing to do that. I think more optimistic for the Ukrainians around that time.”
When asked about the impact of Russian attacks on Ukraine’s electricity grid and other civilian infrastructure, Haines said Moscow’s aim was partly to weaken Ukrainians’ will to protest and said added: “I think we don’t see any evidence that that’s being sabotaged right now at this point.”
She said Russia is also looking to influence Ukraine’s ability to resolve the conflict, adding that Kiev’s economy is being hit very hard.
“Obviously, over time, it can have an impact. The magnitude of the impact will depend on how much they’re after, what they’re capable of doing, the resilience of that critical infrastructure, our ability to help them protect it.”
“Ukraine’s economy is being hit very hard. It’s devastating, and… it’s clear that taking down the power grid is going to have an impact on that too.”
Haines said she thought Russian President Vladimir Putin was surprised his military did not achieve more.
“I do think he’s getting more understanding of the challenges facing the military in Russia. But it’s still not clear to us that he has a full picture at this stage of the challenge. their awareness… we see the shortage of ammunition, morale, supply issues, logistics, the range of concerns they are facing.”
Haines said Putin’s political goals in Ukraine are unlikely to change, but US intelligence analysts think he may be willing to downsize his short-term military goals “on a temporary basis.” time with the idea that he could come back to the matter later.” some time later.”
She said Russia appeared to be using up its military stockpile “quite quickly”.
“It’s actually quite extraordinary, and our sense is that they don’t have the capacity to locally produce what they’re spending at this stage,” she said.
“That’s why you see them effectively going to other countries trying to get ammunition… and we’ve shown that their precision ammunition is depleting much faster in many respects. edge.”
Haines said the United States has “seen some movement” in supplying ammunition from North Korea, “but it’s not much at this stage.”
She said Iran has supplied drones to Russia and Moscow is seeking other types of precision weapons from Tehran, which would be “very disturbing in terms of their capabilities”.
