by Judith Curry
I have a new op-ed published in Australianhere is the full text.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued a new Compilation Report, with fanfare by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres:
“The climate time bomb is ticking, but the latest IPCC report shows we have the knowledge and resources to tackle the climate crisis. We need to act now to ensure a habitable planet in the future.”
The new IPCC report is an amalgamation of the three reports that make up the Sixth Assessment Report, plus three special reports. Is this summary report? Are not introduce any new information or findings. While the IPCC Reports include some good literature, the Policy Makers Summary for the Integrated Report highlights the unproven findings on climate impacts caused by extreme climate events. The report on extreme emissions caused and policy recommendations on emission reduction are politicized.
The most important finding of the past 5 years has been that the extreme emissions scenarios RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5, often referred to as “business as usual” scenarios, are now widely recognized as irrational. . These extreme scenarios were rejected by the United Nations Conference of the Parties to the Climate Agreement. However, the New Synthesis Report continues to highlight these extreme scenarios, while this important finding is buried in a footnote:
“Very high emission scenarios have become less likely but cannot be ruled out.”
Extreme emission scenarios are associated with alarming forecasts of 4-5oC of warming by 2100. The most recent Conference of the Parties (COP27) is working from a baseline temperature forecast based on an average emissions scenario of 2.5oC in 2100. Since 1.2oC of warming has occurred since the basal period in the late 19th centurylame pants century, the degree of warming expected for the rest of the 21st centuryst century under the average emissions scenario is only about a third of the warming predictions under the extreme emissions scenario.
The Consolidated Report highlights “loss and damage” as the primary reason action is needed. Therefore, it is difficult to overstate the significance of the change in expectations for future extreme weather events and sea level rise, which is related to the rejection of extreme emissions scenarios. . The rejection of these extreme scenarios has rendered much of the literature and assessment of climate impacts over the past decade obsolete, focusing on these scenarios. In particular, the extreme emissions scenario dominates the impacts outlined in the new Consolidated Report.
Clearly, the climate “crisis” is not what it used to be. Instead of acknowledging this fact as good news, IPCC and UN officials are doubling down on “alarms” about the urgency of reducing emissions by phasing out fossil fuels. You might think that if warming were less than we thought, then priorities would shift from reducing emissions to reducing our vulnerability to extreme weather and climate conditions. However, that is not the case.
The IPCC has been described as an “intellectual monopoly”, with dominant authority in UN climate discussions. The IPCC states that it is “policy neutral” and “never regulatory policy.” However, the IPCC has gone far beyond its privileged role of reviewing the scientific literature to support policymaking. The entire structure of the IPCC Reports currently revolves around mitigating climate change through emission reduction.
The IPCC not only increasingly presents a clear political advocacy position, but also misleads policymakers by repeatedly emphasizing the extreme climate consequences of unbelievable extreme emissions scenarios. cause. With its clear politics, combined with misinformation, the IPCC risks losing its privileged position in international policy debates.
The impact of these alarming IPCC reports and the rhetoric of UN officials is this. Climate change has become a big story in which man-made climate change has become the main cause of social problems. Everything that goes wrong reinforces the belief that there is only one thing we can do to stop social problems—stop burning fossil fuels. This great story makes us think that if we solve the problem of burning fossil fuels, other problems will also be solved. This belief leads us away from further investigation into the real causes of these other problems. The end result is a narrowing of perspectives and policy options that we are willing to consider to address complex issues such as energy systems, water resources, public health, weather disasters, and safety. national security.
The IPCC report has become climate science the “bumper sticker” – making a political statement while using the general reputation of science to empower a politically generated consensus.
JC notes: h/t to Dan Hughes for the “bumper sticker” line
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