BRUSSELS – Ukraine’s European allies are facing questions of both tactical and political importance as bloody battles in the east of the country tilt in favor of Russia.
On the tactical front, NATO allies, and especially Ukraine’s neighbors, face the challenge of tapping their own supplies to support the war effort, leaving them exhausted. armory.
And on the political front, the question of whether the European Union will make the leap to give Ukraine a candidate for the bloc will need to be answered before the end of the month.
The reality on the battlefield, as Ukrainian officials assess that Russia can completely encircle the city of Sievierodonetsk in the eastern Donbas region in the next 2-3 days, may also influence the decision on how to replenish the arsenal. and the decision to give Ukraine hope by granting Ukraine EU candidate status, even if Ukraine is technically not ready for that.
“It always feels like, as the focus shifts south and east, Russia heads the Brussels office of the German Marshall Fund,” said Ian Lesser, a former State Department official.
“But it raises more serious long-term questions about the nature of the conflict, Ukraine’s goals, and the West’s goals in relation to those goals,” he added.
He said that accelerating the supply of longer-range weapons required by Ukraine, as well as the necessary training for the Ukrainian military to operate them, would help the country hold its ground.
However, some EU member states are worried that they have sent too many ammunition supplies to Ukraine and are falling behind in resupplying their arsenals. The major free-trade bloc, whose foreign and defense policies are not integrated, is gathering to find supplies.
The bloc will try to tap 9 billion euros ($9.5 billion) in funding to jointly procure military equipment, boost primary strength and try to allay concerns that EU officials say Supporting Ukraine militarily is dangerously undermining defense capabilities elsewhere in Europe.
But the more strategic question of whether to grant Ukraine candidacy later this month is also a pressing issue for the country’s European allies.
During a visit to Kyiv on Saturday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said her administration would issue an opinion on whether the European Union should grant Ukraine candidate status by weekend or not. However, the final decision is a political one that EU leaders will be called upon to make at their summit on June 23 and 24 in Brussels.
After achieving candidate status, it took most countries at least a decade of reforms and negotiations to become full members of the EU. If Ukraine gets the green light later this month, its road ahead is likely to be long and difficult given the dire situation and problems associated with corruption and pre-war governance.
Experts say it will still send a powerful message.
“Whatever the reality of the territory on the ground, the prospect of deeper Atlantic integration for Ukraine makes a lot of sense,” Mr. Lesser said. “And, to the extent that it promotes the growing prospect of an increasingly Westernized Ukraine versus a Russia slowly falling into East Asian imperialism, the political contrasts between the two will become clearer.”
