Total Energy Used and Petrochemicals – Huge increase with that?
By Andy May
It came up in the conversation: How much oil and gas goes into producing plastics and fertilizers? Turns out the IEA has a 2018 Report on this topic. They have a separate one Report 2020 on total energy used in 2019. The reports contain some interesting data and graphs. Below is a comparison of total energy use in 1973 and 2018, from World Key Energy Statistics 2020 Report.
In the 45 years from 1973 to the end of 2018, oil use fell dramatically, and much of this energy was replaced by coal, natural gas, and nuclear. Wind and sun (part of “other”) increase slightly, but this increase makes a small difference. Biofuels, mainly wood-burning, fell nearly as much as “others” increased.
In The future of petrochemicals In the 2018 IEA report, we find that about 14% of the world’s oil and 8% of the natural gas are used as feedstock for petrochemical production. The petrochemical industry makes thousands of products that we use every day. These include plastics, fertilizers, clothing, electronic devices, medical devices, medicines, tires, solar panels, wind turbine blades, batteries and insulation. The report indicates that the growth in demand for plastics and fertilizers is outpacing the growth in demand for steel, aluminum and cement. Demand for petrochemicals has nearly doubled since 2000, and the US and Europe use 20 times more plastics and fertilizers than India, Indonesia and other developing countries on a per capita basis. This means that the growth boom will not abate any time soon. Figure 2 compares growth in plastics production with growth in other sectors and GDP since 1971.
Of the nearly 10 million bpd of oil demand forecast for 2030, the petrochemical sector accounts for more than 33%. The sector also accounts for more than 7% of the expected increase in demand for natural gas. Petrochemicals are the largest component of projected demand growth for oil and gas through 2030.
The conclusions are obvious.
- The growth in solar and wind power does not make a difference, the impact on fossil fuel use will be significantly lost.
- Petrochemicals are very important to our lives today and they are growing faster than total energy use.
- Coal, oil and natural gas are here for a long time to come. They may one day be replaced as a source of energy, but the only candidate on the horizon is nuclear.