Can Fall’s Toast Be Spring’s Major Championship (or Advanced Event) Launch? That’s the question when it comes to Tom Kim, two-event winner of the Open Championship on the PGA Tour and individual champion (if any) of the Presidents Cup in September.
Kim captivated most who met him not only with his smooth approach shots and skillful short play, but also a rare power in the golfing world. It seems his aura is almost as unique and unreplicable as his game.
Without a doubt, he is the best young star in golf. The 20-year-old player (he won’t be 21 until the US Open at Los Angeles Country Club) is ranked 15th in the world and is in the sights of even the best players in the world.
Kim is also a bit weird. In a world where many top young players are advancing with distance and speed, Kim is not one to kick the ball far. Last year, he didn’t have enough laps to qualify, but his 301.1-yard average will be a T92 on the PGA Tour and his clubhead speed of 110.09 will rank 177th. This is not the statistical record of someone ranked in the top 20 in the world six months into their teens.
And yet, what Kim does best is probably the lost art of winning. He won so many. In 81 starts in Official World Golf Ranking events, Kim has 8 wins. That’s a huge number that, although buoyed up a bit by regularly playing in lesser tournaments, can’t be immediately dismissed as Kim has also won twice in 20 starts on the PGA Tour. .
In other words, his win rate on the world’s best tour (10%) is actually slightly higher than his win rate on every other world tour (9, 8%).
I joked recently that Tom Kim was going to be the richest golfer who ever lived, it’s fun to think about until you realize that’s not really a joke. PGA . Tournament float a document earlier this year showed how Jim Furyk (17 wins, one major) will rake in over $600 million in income — if his career begins in 2023 — from multiple PGA revenue streams. Various tours.
I’m not saying Kim will have Furyk’s career, but if he does, he’ll probably become the richest golfer of all time (just earnings on the course, of course).
All of this raises the obvious question of just how good Kim can be: To be Tran Tom Kim?
Some incredible work from Data Golf to get it all started: Adam Scott in 2001, Jon Rahm in 2015, Joaquin Niemann in 2019, Sungjae Im in 2018, Jason Day in 2008, and Rickie Fowler in 2009. It also features Kevin. Na in 2004 and Ryo Ishikawa in 2012.
While I’m enamored with Kim’s presence and his sense of the moment, I’m inclined to believe he’s being overrated at the moment. He has exceeded his projected win total for the 2021-22 season (two wins worldwide, 0.79 wins expected) and he is doing so again in the season. tournament 2022-23 (one win, 0.55 expected win). This is not all, but if you dig a little deeper into his profile, it tells a story.
Kim’s problem is hitting the ball. He’s an elite ironman — like, really great — but his tee shot is so short that will likely prevent him from actually competing at the biggest events. While Kim is incredibly steady on the tee – his steering accuracy would have been fourth last season if he had qualified – he has difficulty making the shots on the top. yard because of its length.
This may change. We’ve seen Matt Fitzpatrick change his distance through speed training and win the US Open championship for it. However, since Kim is currently being formed, he will have to have special weeks of practice to win golf tournaments. (He has set records in both the Wyndham Championship and the Shriners in his two wins.) Of the top 150 players in the world who have won it at least twice in 2022, Kim is by far the shortest player. in that group, according to Golf data.
Is that sustainable? Maybe. A good opponent right now for Kim could be Cam Smith, who has an extremely average tee shot and has actually won fewer shots with his driver than Kim in the last 12 months (mainly). weak because he is incorrect).
If you pull the numbers back to the top 150 players from the past 10 years, we get an even better picture. Here are names that look like Kim: Jim Furyk, Luke Donald, Zach Johnson, Graeme McDowell and Brandt Snedeker, maybe a bit like Jordan Spieth.
This group (apart from Spieth) is a great target for people like Kim. I don’t know if he has walking to have the career any of them had, but he sure maybe totally has the career of Matt Kuchar. He maybe has the career of Zach Johnson. Can he get over that? Unless things change dramatically – and they might assume he’s 20 years old! – that seems unlikely.
In theory, he could look like Justin Thomas or Rory McIlroy – generational players. But, and not to disappoint you because I really love him, Tom Kim may not be a generational player.
This has many implications for 2023. As the world No. 15, Kim is perhaps a bit overvalued. The second, related to the first, is that we should consider our expectations of him. Because he won when he did, and because he crushed at the Presidents Cup, some going into this season believe Kim can (or even will) win three times. However, with a tight schedule, he will almost certainly play, which is unlikely.
Kim’s story should be (and be) celebrated. However, there will be a much better picture after this highly anticipated season and only big events like what Tom Kim can get on the PGA Tour.
