Based on Time Magazine’s opinion piece, “What will happen after the coming climate turmoil?” We may have reached a point where no event has to be included in an erotic editorial about climate fear. This is just a short introduction to the work and the author. I encourage you to read it yourself.
the author is Parag Khanna The person Time describes as the founder of Map of the Future and the author of the new book MOVE: The force that eradicated us. According to KhannaIn his long biography, he is a “top global strategic advisor, world traveler and bestselling author”. He is the Founder and CEO of Climate Alpha, an AI-powered analytics platform that predicts property values because “the next real estate boom will be in climate-resilient regions”. He is also the Founder & Managing Partner of future map, a strategy consulting firm based on data and scenarios to “navigate the dynamics of globalization”. Dr. Khanna “has a PhD in international relations from the London School of Economics, and BA and MA from the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University”. About Georgetown School of Diplomatic Service main curriculum does not suggest any scientific claims that might form the basis of Dr Khanna’s climate beliefs.
The opinion section begins with the correlational causal fallacy endemic to the illiterate of science and the myriad climate crises. He noted that in 2021, “global emissions of carbon dioxide will reach 36.3 billion tons, the highest volume ever recorded” and that this year “the number of international refugees will surpass 30 million, It’s also the highest number ever.” He then explains the basis for his climate anarchist beliefs: “As sea levels and temperatures rise and geopolitical tensions flare, it’s hard to avoid concluding that humanity is heading to the disruption of the system”.
This is just a summary to:
Today, talking about the collapse of civilization is fashionable. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Statuses that a rise of just 1.5 degrees Celsius will prove devastating to the world’s food systems by 2025. Meanwhile, the most recent IPCC Report warns that we must reverse emissions by 2025 or face irreversible accelerated disruption in key ecosystems, and even if the goals of the Paris agreement are realized, a 2.4 degrees Celsius increase is all but inevitable. In other words, the “worst-case” RCP 8.5 scenario used in many climate models is indeed a baseline. The big but trivial numbers you’ve read—2 trillion dollars annual economic losses, 10-15% lower global GDP, etc – which in itself is likely to be underestimated. The climate bill that just passed the Senate is hardly a consolation prize in this drama: a welcome measure, but also too little to bring rain back into drought-stricken parts of the US. or worldwide.
Then there’s this:
Let’s assume that we are indeed facing a worst-case scenario in 2050: Hundreds of millions of people are killed in heat waves and wildfires, earthquakes and tsunamis, droughts and floods, failures. state and protracted war. Henry Gee, editor of the magazine Naturewrote in an essay in American Science By the end of 2021, even without the risk of climate change and nuclear war, humanity is heading towards extinction due to the decline in genetic diversity and sperm quality.
He went on to predict that even in the most dire situations, billions of people would still survive. He says the current population is eight billion but claims as a result of these dire scenarios “the world’s population will likely remain at 6 billion in 2050”. As you have read this comments section is simply a commercial for Climate Alpha and FutureMap. He believes that climate migrations will be essential for survivors. His vision for the future is that bags of reliable and relatively climate-resilient agricultural yields can become a haven for climate refugees.
What these surviving societies and communities have in common is that they can unleash the complexity that once crushed our predecessors. They are less dependent on distant global supply chains by growing their own food locally, generating energy from renewable resources and using additive manufacturing. The combination of mining and nomadism, high technology and simplicity, are the ingredients for survival at the species level.
These demographic, geographic and technological changes are proof that we are now doing things differently instead of waiting for an inevitable “collapse” or mass extinction event. They also suggest adopting a new model of civilization that is both more mobile and sustainable than our current industrial and sedentary model. The collapse of civilizations is a feature of history, but the Civilization with the big ‘C’ continues, absorbing useful technologies and values from the past before it was buried. The innovations of today will be the foundation of tomorrow. Indeed, the quicker we grasp these artifacts of the next Civilization, the more likely we are to avoid the collapse of the current civilization. Humanity will come together again – whether it falls apart first or not.
In my opinion, there are some major flaws in his arguments. Apparently, his forecasts are based on an RCP 8.5 scenario because he thinks that’s “a real baseline”. Roger Pielke, Jr. noted that RCP8.5 abuse is common. Larry Kummer Writing at Climate Etc. explain that it’s a useful worst-case scenario, but not “business as usual”. For crying out loud, even the BBC understood that the script was “extremely unlikely“. Relying on that scenario would invalidate his predictions.
Khanna’s worst-case statement “Hundreds of millions perished in heat waves and wildfires, earthquakes and tsunamis, droughts and floods, state failures and protracted wars” are absurd . He has to deal with many examples where weather-related impacts are decreasing as global temperatures rise, such as those described by Willis Eschenbach in ““Where is the climate emergency?? “. The subject of his comments is climate anarchy, so why include earthquakes and tsunamis? I acknowledge that his flawed climate projections can strain nations and prolong wars, but I do not believe climate is a major driver.
Ultimately, his argument that climate is a major driver is contradicted by his reliance on Sustainable Development Index, “a ranking of countries that meet people’s needs with low per capita resource consumption”. He said that the best performing countries are “Costa Rica, Albania, Georgia and other low-middle-income countries”. The fact that Costa Rica is located in the tropics and is therefore much warmer than Albania and Georgia at mid-latitudes suggests that a warm climate is not a limiting factor for sustainable development.
Khanna may be a top global strategy advisor, world traveler, and bestselling author, but his lack of understanding of the uncertainties associated with climate change is evident in this article. this editorial. Unlike many climate change action advocates, upon scrutiny, it seems he’s followed money as his motivator.
Roger Caiazza blogs about environmental and energy issues in New York at New York’s Pragmatic Environmentalist. This represents his opinion and not the opinion of any of his previous employers or any other company to which he is affiliated.