Sports

Three Reasons Milwaukee Brewers Won’t Win NL Central


Via Pedro Moura
FOX Sports MLB Writer

As August begins, Milwaukee Brewers three games ahead of their peers at NL Central.

By that time, they had led the division for all but about 10 of the 100 days before that. It looks like they’re about to earn their fifth consecutive bid after the season, as most expected at the start of the season. PECOTA projections, for example, pegged the Brewers as their division’s best team in 12 games – by far the sport’s biggest margin.

Then on the first morning of the month, the Brewers trade Josh Hader. The next night, they began to lose. And they haven’t stopped yet.

The Brewers enter the final of Wednesday’s series against LA Dodgers some 5.5 game’s back of St. Louis Cardinals in the central race. They’re still very much on the NL wild card hunt, but their path to the knockouts has turned much bleak this month.

Here are three reasons Brewers are disappointed in 2022, especially in August.

first. Christian Yelich still not playing like a star, and neither should anyone else on the squad.

In the three seasons since he signed a $215 million contract extension a week before the pandemic hit in March 2020, Yelich has been a far cry from him for two seasons. before he signed that contract. Throughout 2018 and ’19, when he hit a total of 1,231 times, Yelich had 80 own own goals and 1,046 OPS – 71% better than average.

Since then, he hit the ball 1,233 times, went home 30 times and scored 0.747 OPS – 6% better than average. It’s not terrible, merely mid-range. But because the Brewers spend an entire fifth of their paychecks on Yelich’s $26 million paycheck, his underperformance is especially difficult.

Around Yelich, the Brewers built a competent assault on the budget. In terms of OPS+, 11 Milwaukee players are close to average or better this season. 10 people without the name Yelich are making about $38 million combined. Their production would be much nicer if it was played by a star. The Brewers lack that player.

They think Willy Adames could appear in that role after his play after the May 2021 trade. But like Yelich, Adames is fine. He hit for strength but was chased too much to gain ground at a useful level. The Brewers don’t have a single player who has consistently done both these seasons.

Recently, former top prospect Keston Hiura highlighted two possibilities. If he can continue to establish himself as an excellent smasher, Milwaukee’s chances could be significantly better.

2. The pitching start time has been discontinued since 2021.

Ace Corbin Burnes came back great, but even he was unable to repeat his dominance in 2021. His attacks go down, his steps go up and those against him is increasing. He has kept his ERA for half a cycle since 2021, but the Brewers have won just 15 of his 25 starts in 2022, compared with 19 of 28 in 2021.

Beyond Burnes, the retracement is more extreme. Adrian Houserthe numbers are basically the same or better, but his ERA is 1.5x worse. Brandon Woodruffbasically a second ace in 2021, like a 2 or 3 in 2022, wilder and more excitable. Eric Laueralso surrendered to more landlords. Freddy Peralta was injured.

All told, Brewers’ starters recorded a 3.83 ERA in 2022, up from 3.13 a year ago. They were still effective, but not effective enough to counter the club’s star shortage in attack.

Cardinals will win NL Central as brewers continue to fall

Ben Verlander analyzes how the Cardinals of St. Louis could overtake the Milwaukee Brewers for first in NL Central, questioning the Brewers’ trade deadline move and explaining why he thinks they’ll miss the knockouts.

3. The vibe is off.

It’s not particularly confusing when the Brewers decided to trade Hader. He’s long been baseball’s closest, but he wasn’t as stellar in 2022, and in parting with him on August 1, Milwaukee scored. Taylor Rogersa reliever is predicted to be almost as good in the past two months, as are potential customers who could help the team in 2023.

But apparently the Brewers made a mistake in explaining that trade to their players. Hader, Burnes’ best friend, was loved in the clubhouse. Immediately, player after player criticized the club’s management to reporters. When that negativity coincides with a losing streak, the team goes into the spiral even more.

Even now, it remains a topic of conversation. Lauer tell MLB.com over the weekend that he doesn’t like that general manager David Stearns describes the commercial to the public. Stearns said the transaction “pushs our goal of getting as many apple bites as possible,” which he thinks will best help deliver the Brewers championship.

“I’m not trying to just take an apple bite,” Lauer said in a summary of how his teammates reacted to the deal.

Lauer notes that the Brewers aren’t necessarily in a worse position to compete without Hader. He argues that doesn’t negate the need for a conversation the club hasn’t had. He talks about a first-time vibe in the clubhouse.

“And when such a move changes,” he told MLB.com, “it’s something that needs to be addressed. And it has never been resolved for us.”

It’s not too late, but it’s approaching.

Pedro Moura is the national baseball writer for FOX Sports. Before that, he covered the Dodgers for three seasons for The Athletic and before that, Angels and Dodgers for five seasons for the Orange County Register and LA Times. Previously, he covered his alma mater, USC, for ESPNLosAngeles.com. The son of Brazilian immigrants, he grew up in a Southern California suburb. His first book, “How to Beat a Broken Game,” came out this spring. Follow him on Twitter @pedromoura.


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