As I look for this year’s Belmont Stakes (G1) winner to close out the 2024 edition of The Road with a slight handicap, I won’t rely heavily on trends or history.
For the first time, the Belmont Stakes (G1) will be contested at the Saratoga Race Course and with the change in venue, there will also be a change in distance from the traditional 1/2 mile to 1 1/4 miles when an expected field of 10 3-year-olds comes out of the gate on June 8. Of course you probably already know that so I’ll move on to handicaps.
In the field there was also the winner of the Kentucky Derby (G1). Mystik Dan and Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Embrace the gray still Sierra Leone caught my eye this spring as the season’s top 3-year-old. This year’s Blue Grass Stakes (G1) winners are a pair of spearheads that cannot be beaten, with those spearheads having finished as runners-up in last year’s Remsen Stakes (G2) and in recent starts his best in the Kentucky Derby.
In the time since that Derby effort, late-running Sierra Leone has returned to Chad Brown’s stable at Saratoga ahead of Saturday’s historic race. The son of Gun Runner has emerged three times since May 18. I think his talent, five weeks of rest and preparation in a comfortable setting will contribute to another winning effort.
One race after Seize the Gray scored a points lead over seven opponents in the Preakness Stakes, the son of Arrogate will start from the inside position on Saturday. The return of Dornoch to the Triple Crown after a slow start in the Derby and the addition of Peter Pan Stakes (G3) winner Antique and talented Derby day winner Mind frame envision adding some speed early this time around.
That said, Sierra Leone has won races without too many early finishers. This is not a horse that just picks up the pieces; he was a talented runner but preferred rallying. His well-documented problems with returning home should make his supporters pay even closer attention to that ever-important point in the race. My guess is he’ll get better in that area and bring home the sixth year in a row of three different horses winning Triple Crown races.
I see Sierra Leone as the most likely winner of Saturday’s race but Mystik Dan could be the most valuable player, if he starts anywhere near the 5-1 session my morning. Just like he did at the Derby, son of gold money will start from lesson 3 under the direction of Brian Hernandez Jr. Another rail-riding character is available if they choose to make the horses inside him—Seize the Gray and resilience —both decided to take or at least allow a path to the track at some point before the first turn.
To get all the praise that Hernandez’s Derby-winning ride deserves, check out his magic in moving Mystik Dan from the #9 (No. 10) to the inside position in the early stages of a runaway victory in the Southwest Stakes (G3) . It’s worth looking at and making it clear that a ground economy trip would be an option if desired.
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Like the Derby, I could see another long race with Sierra Leone aiming to capture Mystik Dan.
I would go with another Derby horse for the third option in resilience who impressed in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) but faced a long trip in the Derby and remained sixth.
