“The Climate Impact of Fossil Fuels in Today’s Energy Systems” by Dr. L. Schernikau and Professor WH Smith – Interested in that?
Lars and Bill Smith analyzed new information released by the IPCC and IEA over the past year on methane and carbon dioxide. Some analysis confirms what we already know, i.e. about half the amount of CO2 being released into the atmosphere actually doesn’t end up in the air and therefore cannot contribute to global warming… It is received by nature and contributes to greening the Earth (also confirmed by NASA). All sources are cited in the article including links.
The other analytical results were quite surprising, which even the authors did not expect. However, for this, the “IPCC Global Warming Potential GWP” needs to be accepted (see Lars .’s YouTube video for a brief introduction).
A brief summary of the 4 main points from the paper:
According to IPCC and IEA data, apply simple math
first. Methane makes up a large part of the warming from greenhouse gases – this is ignored by the CO2 tax or decarbonization regulation also promoted from the banks
- 40% methane comes from natural sources + 25% from agriculture (65% total)
- at 20y GWP – approx Half of the current “warming GHG” comes from natural CH4 emissions and agriculture (at 100 years GWP this figure is just over 30%)
2. Therefore, now globally coal accounts for ~15% of total GHG pa (CO2eq) over 20 years (or ~25% over 100 years)
- Fyi, we know that coal accounts for ~40% of global anthropogenic CO2 emissions, which is true, but doesn’t take into account methane
3. As a result – on average, LNG “bad for the climate” than all coal (please note that the authors have nothing against LNG or natural gas, on the contrary… they are great sources of energy that we and we need them urgently… these are just logical conclusions from the data. of IPCC and IEA)
- It takes only 2% more methane emissions from LNG production, transportation and processing than coal to match global warming, over 20 years (over 100 years is about 5% 5%)
- Existing LNG supply chains have already surpassed these values, although this is hard to spot
4. As a result – on average, On average, surface mine coal is “better for the climate” than all natural gas
It is not a matter of favoring coal over gas or vice versa, but analyzing what the IPCC and IEA reported numbers mean. With a large portion of green house heating coming from methane (mostly natural gas and from agriculture), we can begin to see the world differently.
These are the results of a fairly open-ended analysis that would yield significant adjustments to energy policy, especially in the wake of COP26’s anti-coal agenda.
- logically, based on this information, the taxation of CO2 and all the decarbonization efforts (see ESG indices in large corporations or banks) are leading to undesirable market distortions
Lars and Bill conclude that investing in sustainable, affordable, reliable modes of electricity generation (including coal, gas, nuclear, hydro, geothermal, etc.) alleviate poverty, promote economic growth and avoid global energy shortages. USC – Supercritical Power Plant Technology (and if absolutely necessary + CCUS) is the answer to minimizing the negative impact the quest for affordable and reliable electricity has on the planet our.
I hope you find this interesting and invite you to respond as usual.
Wishing you a happy pre-holiday holiday season and I still extend my best regards,
Heinz
Ps1: Detailed calculation is given in the table below. Please note that the table below uses the updated 2021 IEA published methane data. The attached article still uses IEA data through the end of 2020 and will be updated later… the changes between the two years are noticeable and in favor of gas
Ps2: for your reference, below are two previously published studies/articles, both well worth reading:
Schernikau, Lars and William Smith. “How many Km2 of solar panels in Spain and how many backup batteries will be needed to power Germany. ” SSRN e-journal, April 2021. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3730155 (auch in Deutsch verfügbar über den og Link)
Excellent article on renewable energy”Can renewable energy sources provide the world with a large portion of the energy it needs? ” published in Cement Magazine in October 2020 (reposted here at Musica-Project.eu) (lots in Deutsch verfügbar, schreibt mir einfach zurück)
Available at SSRN . Electronic Magazine
Search Google «climate impact schernikau»
https://ssrn.com/abstract=3968359
The climate impact of fossil fuels in today’s energy system
Dr. Lars Schernikau | Prof. William H. Smith
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