The artificial urgency of the climate crisis is leaving us with no time and space to build a secure energy future – Can it be done?

From Climate, etc.

by Judith Curry

More and more people are realizing that emissions and temperature targets are now decoupled from the human health and development issues of our 21st century world.

JC notes: this is the text of my commentary for SkyNews that was published a few weeks ago

Over the past two centuries, fossil fuels have fueled human progress, improving living standards and increasing life expectancy for billions of people. In the 21st century, a rapid transition away from fossil fuels has become an urgent international imperative to mitigate climate change, under the auspices of the United Nations Paris Agreement. As a result, day 21^st The century’s energy transition is dominated by strict targets for rapid elimination of carbon dioxide emissions. However, the recent COP27 meeting in Egypt highlighted that very few countries in the world are on track to meet their emissions reduction commitments.

The desire for cleaner, more abundant, more reliable and less expensive sources of energy is pervasive. However, the goal of rapidly phasing out fossil fuels is at odds with the urgency of providing grid electricity to developing countries. Rapid deployment of wind and solar power always increases electricity costs and reduces reliability, especially with increased penetration into the grid. Allegations of human rights abuses in China’s Xinjiang region, where the global solar supply is concentrated, are creating political conflict that threatens the solar industry. The global supply chain of materials needed to produce solar and wind power coupled with battery storage is giving rise to new regional conflicts, logistical problems, supply shortages and rising costs. get a raise. The large amount of land required for solar and wind farms plus transmission lines is causing localized land use conflicts in many regions.

Given the apocalyptic rhetoric around climate change, does the supposed urgency to reduce carbon dioxide emissions somehow outweigh these other considerations? Well, the climate ‘crisis’ isn’t what it used to be. COP27 eliminated the most extreme emissions scenario, which was the source of the most alarming predictions. Just a few years ago, emission trajectories generated 2 to 3 ^oC warming is considered a success of climate policy. When limiting heating to 2 ^oC appears to have been reached, target columns have been moved to limit warming target to 1.5 ^oC. These warming targets are referenced to a baseline at the end of the 19th century^order century; Earth’s climate has warmed 1.1 ^oC. In the context of this relatively modest warming, the current climate ‘crisis’ rhetoric is linked to extreme weather events.

Claiming that extreme weather and climate events are the cause of global warming can prompt a country to try to rapidly transition away from fossil fuels. However, we should not be under the illusion that eliminating emissions will have a significant impact on weather and climate extremes in the 21st century.^st century. It is difficult to untangle the role of natural weather and climate change and land use from the slow escalation of global warming. In retrospect, including paleoclimatic data, there has been more extreme weather anywhere on the planet. To think we can mitigate extreme weather through using atmospheric carbon dioxide as a control knob is a fairy tale. In particular, Australia is responsible for more than 1% of global carbon emissions. As a result, Australia’s emissions have minimal impact on global warming as well as on Australia’s own climate.

More and more people are realizing that these emissions and temperature targets have become decoupled from issues of human health and development. Yes, we need to reduce CO₂ 21 . transparent emissions^st century. However, once we relax the artificial urgency to remove CO₂ With emissions and rigorous timelines, we have the time and space to envision new energy systems that can meet the diverse and growing needs of the 21st century.^st century. This includes enough energy to help reduce our vulnerability to the unexpected from extreme weather and climate events.