It’s clear to any critical thinker that intermittently renewable “green” energy will never work to power a modern economy. So as different states of the US and other countries push their groundbreaking programs to go completely “green” with their electricity production, the next obvious question immediately arises. posing: who will be the first to touch the green energy “wall”? That is, which state or country will be the first to discover that their electrical system is no longer functional without sufficient reliable power? And how will that impact the population?
In previous articles, I examined the progress toward energy disaster of various affluent jurisdictions that have embarked on this supposed transition to renewable electricity. For example, here’s a December 17, 2021 post titled “Which country or State of the United States will be the first to hit the renewable energy wall?” That post focuses on California and Germany. My March 15, 2023 post, “Countdown to New York’s rendezvous with impossible energy,” consider New York as another contender for the first hit the wall.
But now let’s look at South Africa. South Africa is one of the wealthiest countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which doesn’t say much. The World Bank puts GDP per capita around $7000 for 2021. (For comparison, the GDP per capita of the United States is around $70,000. While richer European countries like Germany, the UK, and France have GDP per capita in the $40,000-$50,000 range.)
Unlike the rich Western countries, South Africa is far from fully developed and has never achieved a fully built electricity grid. The country has a legacy power infrastructure, almost entirely based on coal production, that dates back to before the ANC came to power in 1994. But South Africa needs to dramatically increase its electricity supply to become one. comprehensive economic development. Rapid population growth (from about 43 million in 1994 to 60 million today). Meanwhile, its power company, Eskom, is heavily indebted with little ability to raise private capital. As a result, the country relies heavily on Western aid to support and expand its electricity supply. As an example of what is happening in the area of Western aid to electricity infrastructure, World Bank stops funding coal power plants in 2013 And stop funding for oil and gas exploitation projects in 2017.
And so South Africa has become a guinea pig ready to serve the green dreams of Western elites. Based on Home Climate News from September 19, 2020the South African government launched the so-called Integrated Resource Plan in 2019 “outline[ing] a transition from polluting coal production to renewable sources like solar and wind power.” In September 2020, according to the same piece of CHN, “the South African cabinet. . . approved a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050.” South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has been repeatedly credited over the years for advocating the Net Zero transition for his country.
In fact electricity production in South Africa, here’s what I was able to learn. The The New York Times reports on March 14, 2023 that over the past decade, since the wind/solar fad took hold, the country’s coal-fired power plants have been allowed to fall into disrepair due to poor maintenance and investment. Meanwhile, the focus since the turn of the century has shifted to the development of wind and solar energy sources to provide electricity. ONE December 2021 work from Alexandria Technical Magazine provides a comprehensive overview of the development of renewable energy in South Africa. The initial demonstration wind project was built by Eskom in 2002. Here is the long list of completed wind projects since then:
South Africa is also not behind in its march to solar energy. From the same section in the Alexandria Technical Review, here is a list of solar projects (for some reason not including years, but they are almost entirely after 2010):
So, surely wind and solar must now provide abundant and nearly free electricity to everyone? Hard. Below is a pie chart of the current generation mix, believed to be based on data from the United Nations’ International Energy Agency:
Well, after all that effort, wind power accounts for 2% of South Africa’s total electricity and 1% of solar. And from CNN, January 18:
South Africans have suffered power cuts for years but 2022 is the worst year on record with 205 days of rotating blackouts, due to aging coal-fired power plants failing and the state power company. Eskom struggled to find the money to buy diesel for emergency generators. Since the beginning of the year, there has been a power outage every day. The situation worsened again last week when Eskom said it would make more cuts due to breakdowns at 11 coal-fired generating units.
According to CNN, any individual home or business experiences a power outage of about 12 hours a day, often increasing gradually over about 4 hours at a time, and often without notice. It is disgusting to see what self-important international officials are doing to this poor country. But at least we now know what a green energy “wall” looks like in reality.
UPDATE, April 26, 2023: Here are some helpful addendums I found during my research for this post.
First, from Energy Bulletin, November 21, 2022:
The World Bank has approved a $497 million loan and other support to finance the decommissioning and reuse of one of the world’s largest coal-fired power plants—the 1,000 MW Komati plant. in South Africa, owned by the largest public utility company, Eskom. The Komati plant, which was permanently decommissioned in October, will be reused for 220 MW of renewable energy, including a 150 MW solar photovoltaic facility, 70 MW wind generation and 150 on-site storage batteries MW, “together will help improve power supply quality and grid stability,” the bank said.
And second, from macro trendSouth Africa’s GDP per capita, 1960-2021:
It’s funny how all the “free” electricity and near-daily blackouts don’t lead to a rapid increase in GDP per capita. Instead, it is the further impoverishment of those who are already poor.
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