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Somalia says drought is caused by climate change, as they demand billions of dollars – Is it increasing because of that?


NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t Paul Weldon

Is the drought in Somalia caused by climate change?

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/oct/10/uk-lost-leadership-role-somalia-famine-drought-envoy

Certainly the prolonged drought in Somalia has led to claims that climate change is the cause.

The first thing to note is that the direct cause is La Nina, now in its third year and consistently leading to drought in that part of the world.

But what is the long-term trend?

Based on World Bank dataThe trend of continuous rainfall increases since the 1970s and 80s, the time of drought in the Sahel, led to Band Aid concerts, and is a direct result of global cooling.

Over the longer term, little has changed, although sometimes we have particularly wet years.

However, World Bank data are incomplete, especially in the early years in which some regional data are estimated. And, of course, the national average can include the areas that suffered the most.

According to the BBC, the worst-hit area is west of Mogadishu, known as the Gulf:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-63116210

https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/somalia/trends-variability-historical

The World Bank has good data for Bay, from 1901, and this actually shows a very similar pattern to the country data. Note that the total rainfall is higher than for the country, lower due to the desert region to the north.

https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/user/login?destination=/country/somalia/trends-variability-historical&autologout_timeout=1

Without a doubt, the fact that La Nina is in its third year has aggravated the drought, but population growth, which has increased tenfold since 1950, is the main reason why such droughts These events, which were completely natural and common events, are now happening as a result of human action. Of course, the protracted civil war didn’t help matters either.

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