“Slight increase in temperature by about 1°K”… A drop in 2100 is not ruled out! – Is it good?
Via P Gosselin above 6. March 2022
In the most recent video, the German website Die kalte Sonne this consider a paper on CO2 climate done by Stefani in 2021: Sun and anthropogenic effects on climate: Regression analysis and projections. The results indicate that only one planet is warming moderately by 2150.
Figure 9d of Stefani 2021. Scenarios with a mild decarbonization plan
To raise alarms about climate warming, IPCC scientists wanted to exaggerate the power of CO2 to trap heat and warm the atmosphere. But for every assessment report released by the IPCC, the estimated value of CO2 warming the planet will gradually decline as the observed warming continues to lag behind what previous models predicted.
In his article, Frank Stefani and his team at the Helmholtz Center, Institute of Fluid Dynamics in Dresden, Germany looked at the effects of CO2 and solar activity.
Average warming 1.1°C
Using double regression, the scientists evaluated the linear combination of the logarithm of the carbon dioxide concentration and the geomagnetic aa index as a measure of solar activity. They have been reconstructing the sea surface temperature (HadSST) since the mid-19th century and the resulting climate sensitivity aa (of the TCR type) range 0.6 K up to 1.6 K Each time CO2 doubles. The midpoint of this range is 1.1°C, a value many important climate scientists have previously estimated, and therefore much lower than the IPCC’s dreaded estimates.
The abstract of this article further explains:
The solution of the double regression is quite sensitive: when data from the previous decade are included, the simultaneous occurrence of a strong El Niño and a low value of aa lead to the predominance of solutions with relatively high climate sensitivity. approximately 1.6 K. If these latter data are excluded, the regression provides a significantly higher weighting of the aa index and correspondingly lower climate sensitivity down to 0.6 K. suggested that an additional decade of data collection would be needed to enable reliable distinctions between low and high sensitivity values”.
An impending drop in temperature cannot be ruled out
They further wrote:
We make the first attempt to predict the aa and the resulting temperature anomalies for various typical CO2 scenarios. Even for the highest climate sensitivity and unabated linear CO2 increase, we predict only a slight additional temperature increase of about 1 K through the end of this century, while for lower values, an impending decrease in temperature in the near future, followed by a rather flat temperature curve, is predicted. ”
Professor Fritz Vahrenholt also recently discussed Stefani’s paper, see here.
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