Tech

Shady business in selling futures contracts


Predict the future always proliferate late in the year, but in 2021 something different is joining the usual speculations about gadgets and lifestyle: existential introspection. Between Covid-19 variants and rising national numbers, the global economic crisis and the climate crisis, the evolving emergencies are increasing the feeling that nearly everything needs an overhaul — are from dish arrive strangeness, marriage arrive gaming, and aging arrive Music. And with uncertainty as endemic as the soul of the times, the future is as trendy as it ever has been, which promises to exacerbate uncertainty.

“Future” itself has become a popular catchphrase. Slack has seen itself as the future of work and launched its own Future Forum. Everyone from Facebook (now Meta) to Atari to the city of Seoul announced the imminent metaverse the future of our reality. Universities are issuing”future committee. “Government is committed” sustainable future. This “future” is not more of a specific moment than an act of advertising. Calling it can be such a powerful sign of progress and optimism that it can ignite questionable or unresolved ideas and initiatives and motivate people even when faced with challenges. face the worst realities. The German historian Reinhart Koselleck writes, “What the future brings,” is compensation for the misery of the present. But if we buy these visions too easily, the rosy futures being sold to us risk prolonging the misery. Following this futurist fad requires us to understand how we got here, who profited from it, and how to see a serious future from schlock.

Humans have seen far beyond their present state for most of human history, whether expressed as prayers for rain or for salvation. But use prediction to strategize The future is an idea only in the brief past — widespread adoption in the West only began in the 1800s. In her book Looking to the Future: Prediction and Uncertainty in Modern America. Jamie Pietruska explains how, amid late 19th-century scientific advances and rising secularism, “prediction has become a common scientific, economic, and cultural practice”, embodied in things like weather forecasts, divination and prophecies about how business will develop or contracts. These changes have coincided with the rise of modernity, the onslaught of social and technological changes that continue to push societies forward in terms of novelty, progress, and creative dominance. As the Marxist philosopher Marshall Berman wrote, “To be modern is to find ourselves in an environment that promises us adventure, power, joy, growth, and transformation of ourselves and the world. — at the same time, it threatens to destroy everything we have, everything we know, everything we have. He wrote this in 1982 and is describing the 19th and 20th centuries, but it applies even more appropriately to a future Berman won’t see, our present moment. Constant volatility can be exciting, bewildering, and scary at the same time. It triggers the desire to understand and control chaos. The answer to a future shock is a forecast in the future.

But not everyone experiences or envisions “the future” in the same way. The linear journey toward a progressive future is also a historical and cultural construct, one that particularly benefits wealthy white men who think the future belongs to them. surname. If the future was conceived as a resource, it has been stolen and exploited primarily by some kind of vision. Inequality and injustice limit access to the same future as land or capital. For example, as a sociologist Alondra Nelson commented, “Constructed darkness is always opposed to the chronicle of technological progress.” Dream that the future world could be invaluable, a perspective that simultaneously overlooks the evils of racism while alleviating the needs of black people and culture. Other marginalized groups also find themselves bearing the burden of backward futures while not being included in utopian futures. Consider what it means when future technologies aim only at eradicating disability or age without taking into account what the elderly or disabled people want or what they can access. Power affects what kinds of changes occur and who benefits from them.

While the ability to plan for the future is often a luxury, it is also central to capitalism, where bank capital is based on things like return on investment, potential income, and the coordination of supply and demand. . (Most, supply chain Current woes are caused by not foreseeing the future.) Since the beginning of the 20th century, there have been more and more ways to profit from the future, as more and more spheres of social life became the terrain of the future. speculative economic opportunities. Companies like WGSN forecast fabrics, shades and fashion moods; Consulting organizations like the Institute for the Future advise organizations and nonprofits on the future of health care or administrationand cultural trend forecasters like Future Lab explain consequences of virtual reality for Generation Z for their group of Fortune 500 clients. Not to mention the business giants (white, male) like Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, or Mark Zuckerberg, who move the market with their elusive and self-serving manifestos.

As someone who has studied professional futurists for many years, the barrier to entry is getting lower every day. Because the future is of paramount importance, it seems that all it takes as a futurist is to claim to be one. On the one hand, democratizing futurism means more voices, more imaginations, and more possibilities — more possibilities for many of us to plan. But there is also a price to be paid when something as important as the future becomes the casual object of a spotlight economy, where hype creates headlines and misinformation. truth. It means we value stupid ideas from famous people more than we should. (Nuking Mars, anyone?) It means impractical technologies (like clothes folding robot) and unpublished studies (such as this about possible transmission of Covid) are treated as if they were audible and verified. It means that worries about the future can distract us from the present. It also means that people whose backgrounds give them the right to speak and be heard about the future are rarely asked to question their assumptions and motives. Make breathless predictions about driverless cars, which are supposed to be popular in 2020 but still hampered by regulatory, infrastructure and technology issues. As culture change becomes a product, cheap versions abound, which also threatens to devalue our future.

An extra amount of predictions can make it seem more certain about the world. And of course, rapid changes come from every aspect that deserves our attention, action and care. But forecasts are notoriously fickle, and there is little accountability for erroneous predictions. (Many trained futurists will tell you they don’t predict, preferring terms like forecasting, foresight, or alternative futures, but the distinction is too confusing for most.) people.) What is certain is that selling futures is a business that creates uncertainty — and uncertainty is its real product. Too many futures, from too many places, with too many agendas do not invalidate the prediction but also add to the confusion, thus making the prediction all the more necessary. The future will remain trendy as long as times are tumultuous — and as long as there is money to create and gain attention from guiding those who feel and will always stay behind the curve.

That is why it is important for everyone to be aware of the future being used as snake oil to convince us of the certainty of what is really just a marketing plan. is different. Asking who will benefit from a particular vision in the future is a good start; Same goes for chasing money. Translating and creating future forecasts is also a good reason for people to learn basic futures methods such as scenario, environment scan and reverse forecast. It’s also important to support institutions looking to reshape what futures mean, including Teach the future bring the curriculum of the future to schools and Afrotectopia empowering radical Black futures. We may not be able to prevent the future from being trendy, but we can make it more on our terms. Our vigilance for the future sold to us in the present is essential to ensuring a better future for the next generation, who Neil Postman calls “the living messages we share.” We send to a time that we will not see.”


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