By Julius Sanks
A good way to distinguish between a rational discussion of climate and instilling fear is to examine the data. Fear will contain incomplete data or none at all. The one who spreads fear expects us to make a statement of faith. But we don’t have to. Sometimes it’s easy to check a claim.
A case in point is a recent article titled “How the map of England will change in the next 80 years as towns and cities sink into the sea” [sic] by Sam Elliott-Gibbs. Note the emotional headline and the implication that they will “fall,” but the text continues to discuss sea level rise based on air temperature. Article quote Central climate claimed large areas of England would be underwater by 2100. The only evidence provided were a few maps built on Climate Central’s interactive mapping tool. Climate Central uses topographic data to forecast floods based on sea level and attributes sea level rise to climate change.
The Climate Center’s sea level rise projections are based on mostly speculative literature. It cites the IPCC and a NOAA report. The NOAA report is actually a team effort involving several government agencies, none of which, except NASA, are directly involved in atmospheric science. NOAA’s contribution comes from the National Ocean Service, not from the atmosphere side. These sources extrapolate sea level rise from 2020 into the future.
But sea level change is something we can examine and compare with Climate Central’s claims. We have been using satellite radar to measure sea level quite accurately since 1992, when the TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite was launched. It was the first time we were able to collect data around the world. All prior information is based on point sources, not worldwide.
According to Climate Central, Peterborough, England will be on the coast by 2100. The town is 8 meters above current sea level, so that’s what sea level should be. It will be?
The climate center claims the red zone will be underwater by 2100. 80 years of sea level rise? Sure is not. Source: Central climate.
According to NOAA Satellite altimeter laboratory — unsurprisingly, not one of Climate Central’s sources — sea level rise is quite linear. The actual rate is 3.1 ± 0.4 mm per year. At that rate, it would take 2,580 ocean years to reach Peterborough. The ocean would have to rise 100 millimeters a year – 30 times faster than it actually is – to engulf the town by 2100. It’s worth noting that the NOAA report doesn’t predict anything as close as 8. meter for 80 years. The worst case and therefore least likely to happen is from 1 to 2 meters.
30 years of actual sea level rise. The colored bars indicate the lifetimes of the four satellites used for data acquisition. JASON-3 still works. Source: Satellite Altimeter Laboratory.
Climate Central needs more than a fancy interactive map to make a convincing case that sea levels will drastically change that.
Julius Sanks is an engineer with experience developing weather satellites and weather forecasting systems for the US Air Force and NOAA.
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