The study’s findings hold promise for many future applications where weather events can be better controlled, including the effects of climate change.Peer-reviewed publications
EUROPEAN TOPICS FEDERATION
Decades of global research have raised the big question: can we really control the weather? According to a study published today in the magazine Non-linear processes of geophysicsthis may soon become our new reality.
Researchers from RIKEN . Center for Computational Science used computer simulations to show that extreme weather events can be controlled and modified by making small adjustments to variables in the weather system. They did this by using a system known as a “butterfly attractant” in chaos theory, which takes one of two states – like the wings of a butterfly – and switches back and forth between the two states. state is subject to small changes under certain conditions. The study’s findings hold promise for many future applications where weather events can be better controlled, including the effects of climate change.
Butterfly suction was first proposed by mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz, one of the founders of modern chaos theory. According to Lorenz, even the smallest butterfly-scale changes to his computer weather models cause a wide range of weather results from bright skies to raging storms, not Is there any way to predict the end result. Since Lorenz first presented his work in 1972, his theory of butterfly effects became widespread and remains so to this day. It includes the metaphor that A butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil can cause a tornado in Texas.
Designed ‘naturally’ and weather controlled
The RIKEN team set out to investigate Lorenz’s chaos theory to create practical possibilities for mitigating weather phenomena such as torrential rain. They run one weather simulation to behave like ‘natural’ (control) itself, and then run other simulations using small variations in variables that describe convection — how heat moves through the system. They soon discovered that they could control ‘nature’ to stay in a selected mode without switching to another, i.e. in a selected wing of the Lorenz butterfly attractor, by adding changes small change to ‘natural’.
“We have successfully developed a new theory and methodology to study the controllability of the weather,” said Takemasa Miyoshi of the RIKEN Center for Computational Science, who led the research team. “Based on observations of system simulation experiments used in previous studies, we were able to design an experiment to investigate predictability, assuming that the true values (the substance) cannot be changed, but rather we can change our idea of what could have changed (controlled object). ”
A future with weather control technology?
Although weather predictions have reached a high level of accuracy thanks to supercomputer-based simulations and data assimilation, scientists have long hoped to be able to control the weather. Climate change has prompted further research in this area, because of the increased risk of extreme weather events such as torrential rains and hurricanes.
Takemasa said the study opens the way to research into the controllability of the weather and could soon lead to weather control technology. “If realized, this study could help us prevent and mitigate extreme wind storms, such as torrential rain and hurricanes, which are increasingly exposed to climate change.”
“In this case, we used an ideal low-dimensional model to develop a new theory, and in the future, we plan to use real-world weather models to study this,” he said. study the controllability of the weather.”
JOURNEYS
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
DOI
RESEARCH METHODS
Simulation / computational modeling
RESEARCH SUBJECTS
Do not apply
ARTICLE TITLE
Control simulation experiment with Lorenz .’s butterfly attractor
ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE
March 28, 2022
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