CHISINAU, Moldova – Before war broke out right next door, the Moldovan had big plans for their country.
But Russia Invades Ukraine puts Moldova, a former Soviet republic and one of Europe’s poorest countries, in an extremely vulnerable position, threatening economic development, straining society with a flood of people. asylum and stoked fears of another Russian occupation.
War anxieties are also adding another chapter to Moldova’s long and increasingly desperate attempt to free itself from Moscow’s clutches. To pursue that, it recently applied to join the European Unionbut the prospect of getting admission soon is very remote.
Maia Sandu, president of Moldova, said in an interview: “We are a fragile country in a fragile region.
Moldovans’ fears increased again on Friday, when a Russian general said his army now plans to capture the entire southern coast of Ukraine. That would establish a land bridge from Russia in the east to Transnistria, a heavily armed breakaway region east of Moldova – bordering Ukraine – controlled by Russia.
Whether Russia has the potential to swallow such a large part of Ukraine is debatable, especially given the huge losses that the country’s army suffered in the battle for Kyiv. But whether for real or just an attempt to stir up trouble in the region, the Moldovans are taking the general’s threat seriously.
The Moldovan government has long worried about Transnistria, a thin piece of territory controlled by at least 12,000 separatists and Russian troops. Since the outbreak of war, the Moldovan and Ukrainian armies have faced additional concern as to whether the Transnistrians would jump into battle and begin attacking Ukraine from the west. So far, that hasn’t happened.
Located between Romania and Ukraine, Moldova is small – with less than three million people – and for centuries has been torn between larger powers: first the Ottomans and Russia, now Europe and Russia. The subject, obviously, is Russia, and Russia doesn’t want to miss.
Moscow controls nearly 100% of Moldova’s energy supply. And the Kremlin is constantly trying to stir up the many Russian-speaking people in Moldova who are susceptible to its propaganda, especially in Transnistria.
That is what seems to have happened on Friday, when, according to Russian news media, Major General Rustam Minnekayev said, “Russian control of southern Ukraine is another outlet for Transnistria, where there are Russian-speaking cases of the oppressed.”
The Moldovan government immediately summoned the Russian ambassador to complain about the general’s statement, saying it was “not only unacceptable but also baseless” and led to “increased tensions”.
For Ms. Sandu, 49, the country’s first female president, it is another obstacle along the perilous path she has been trying to overcome since the crisis began.
Moldova has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and banned Moldovans from sticking pro-Russian symbols on their cars. At the same time, the country does not fully participate in EU sanctions against Russia, for fear of being punished Russian gas cut.
Ms. Sandu, 49, spoke from her office on Stefan cel Mare, a major boulevard in the capital Chisinau, cutting through patchwork Soviet-style office buildings. “But no one said it would be this hard.”
The fight had become difficult not only for her but for almost everyone here. Before the conflict began, Adrian Trofim, whose family owned a winery and 19th-century countryside resort, thought he was finally resting after two years of struggling in college. coronavirus outbreak. He’s adding a wing to the hotel, setting up a spa focused on wine-based treatments, and preparing to produce sparkling wine.
But now his activities were in jeopardy. Brandy worth a quarter of a million dollars that he needed to ship to Belarus was frozen in his warehouse. His regular Ukrainian customers had no way of paying him, costing him hundreds of thousands of dollars more. And he was unable to ship his chardonnays to China, one of his new markets, because the port in Odesa, Ukraine, which he used to export closed shortly after the first bombs. falls in February.
“I don’t know what to do, who will probably have to lay off almost half of his staff,” said Mr. Trofim. “Everything froze until we understood how to live with the situation.”
It could be a while. As the war began in Ukraine, residents of Chisinau said they were awakened by the sounds of explosions not far away. Then the Ukrainian refugees started arriving – more than 400,000 have arrived, Moldovan officials say – putting a serious strain on public services in a country where the median annual income is less than $6,000.
Prices of basic commodities then skyrocketed due to supply chain disruptions. And business owners had to convince their employees, fearing war could enter Moldova, not to flee the country, following hundreds of thousands of Moldovans who have emigrated abroad over the past decade. past century.
“We were considered a high risk,” said Carmina Vicol, head of the American Chamber of Commerce in Moldova. “We have just begun to convince investors to consider us. Now everyone has stepped back.”
That’s not all bad news. Some Ukrainian companies are considering moving to Moldova, in search of a safer environment. And with all the foreign dignitaries (and news crews) flooding in, its international profile has been raised, prompting the government last month to rename Moldova “a small but powerful country.” big heart.”
Many Russians discovered that big heart long ago. During Soviet times, retired officers flocked to Moldova, attracted by the scenery, delicious food, and sunshine. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the country was run by a pro-Russian elite who kept close ties to Moscow, especially in terms of energy.
Moldova receives all its gas from companies controlled by Russia. And although Moldova’s leaders have talked a big game about removing the country from Russian gas and getting energy from other countries like Azerbaijan, Turkey and Romania, not a single country in the Some of that, at the moment, might come close to what Russia has to offer.
And so Russia continues to use fluctuating gas prices to prop up Moldova. For example, Russia has stated that it will lower prices if Moldova agrees to make concessions to Transnistria, which Moldova has refused.
Moldova’s twin problems, in terms of energy and Transnistria, are linked. In Soviet times, Moldova’s largest power plant and its two largest gas pumping stations were built in Transnistria.
“If you look at the map, it makes no sense,” said Victor Parlicov, an energy analyst and former government official. “It was built this way in case Moldova tries to pursue its own path.”
Transnistria has its own flag, complete with a Soviet hammer and sickle, and an identity distinct from the rest of Moldova. Its origins date back to the 1920s, when the Soviet Union established a small republic in the same region, before annexing parts of it to the Moldavia Soviet Socialist Republic during World War II. “This is consistent with the Soviet government model of reshaping the borders of the republics against historical reality, which creates the possibility of conflict,” Mr. Parlicov said.
Transnistria’s situation mirrors that of Ukraine’s Donbas region, where Russian-backed separatists rose up after the 2014 anti-Russian uprising, triggering a chain of events that led to war. Transnistria also complicates Moldova’s aspirations to join the European Union.
Deputy Interior Minister Serghei Diaconu said: “We are delighted to be part of the EU. However, he said, half jokingly, Transnistria was “a great pain” that could cause the EU to not accept Moldova.
Joining NATO would be an even higher imperative. Neutrality is enshrined in Moldova’s constitution, a maintenance that dates back to the early 1990s, when the country tried to stand firm without harming Russia. Now, Moldova’s leaders are questioning the wisdom of that approach.
“If you ask me if neutrality keeps us safe, I don’t know,” said Sandu, the president. “Convincing Russia to withdraw its troops from the country has not helped in the past three decades.”
In the eyes of many Moldovans, the geopolitical tightening that the country is forced to step into means that its future is tied to that of Russia. Mr. Trofim, a wine producer, says that almost half of his business depends on Russia, Ukraine and Belarus.
As he looked at the winery’s large, neat gardens, empty but reserved for a few tourists, he said he was appalled by what Russia had done in Ukraine, but he couldn’t blame anyone forever. forever.
“I cannot say that I will never do business with Russia,” Mr. Trofim said. “It’s a matter of my company’s well-being.”
