With Russia expected to soon conduct large-scale exercises for its nuclear forces as President Vladimir Putin threatens to use them, the United States and its allies will face the challenge to make sure they can spot the difference between drills and reality.
Russia typically holds major annual nuclear drills around this time of year, and American and Western officials expect them to happen within the next few days. US officials say they will likely include ballistic missile launches.
But with Putin openly threatening to use nuclear weapons to protect Russia in unraveling Invasion of UkraineSome Western officials fear Moscow may deliberately cloud the waters of its intentions.
“This is why you don’t want to get hysterical at the same time you’re going to do a nuclear exercise,” one Western official told Reuters.
“Because then we have an additional challenge to really make sure that the actions that we see, the things that are happening, are really an exercise and not something else.”
However, the official expressed “high confidence” in the West’s ability to make this distinction.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg assured at a press conference in Brussels that the alliance would monitor Russia’s annual nuclear exercises very closely, as it has for decades.
At the White House, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Russia’s so-called “Grom” exercises will include large-scale maneuvers of strategic nuclear forces, including real missile launches. He describes them as “habits”.
“While Russia may believe that this exercise will help them project power, especially in light of recent events, we know that Russia’s nuclear units receive extensive training in this time of year,” Kirby said, adding that the US would “monitor that accordingly.”
The Russian drills are expected to be carried out around the same time as NATO’s annual nuclear preparation exercise, known as “Steadfast Noon”, and will begin, a US defense official said on condition of anonymity. beginning next week.
“We believe Russia’s nuclear rhetoric and decision to conduct this exercise while at war with Ukraine is irresponsible,” the official told Reuters.
“It is irresponsible to wield nuclear weapons to coerce the United States and its allies.”
The Russian Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to an email request for comment.
Officials have so far said Mr Putin has not taken steps to suggest he is preparing to launch a nuclear strike, but Moscow’s nuclear rhetoric has intensified after a successful counterattack. of the Ukrainian army in the past month.
In recent weeks, Putin has announced the annexation of Ukrainian territories and threatened to defend Russian lands with nuclear weapons. A senior NATO official on Wednesday said any use of Russian nuclear weapons could trigger a “physical response” from the alliance.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin speak on Thursday following a meeting of NATO’s nuclear planning group in Brussels that he had not seen any “signs and warnings” that could cause a change to the US nuclear posture.
The last time Russia used nuclear force was in February, shortly before its invasion of Ukraine, in a move that officials at the time said was intended to discourage the West from backing Kyiv.
Western officials expect the drills to test “the Kremlin’s ability to provide control over forces and give direction, and the forces themselves to respond in that direction.”
The official predicted that Russia would publicize aspects of the exercises and use them to deter threats from Moscow.
“We should expect that there will be nuclear rhetoric during the exercise, so that they can take advantage, the strategic communication advantage, of the exercise,” the Western official said.
US officials say annual NATO nuclear exercises were planned before Russia invaded Ukraine, US officials said, adding that the exercises had been held regularly around the same time in the past year. years for more than a decade. Most of the exercises will take place more than 1,000 kilometers (625 miles) from Russia, the US defense official said.
Fourteen NATO countries are expected to take part in the alliance’s exercises, which include warplanes capable of carrying nuclear warheads – but not involving live bombs, US officials say. said and added that US Army B-52 bombers would participate.
“While we will continue our routine operations to maintain our nuclear deterrent, there will be no particular messaging around our exercises,” the US defense official said. said.
“We think launching a nuclear sword is reckless and irresponsible. Russia could choose to play that game – but we won’t.”
