Russian President Vladimir Putin (front) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Vladimir Zelensky) attend the Normandy Four summit at the Murat Lounge in the Elysee Palace; negotiations in the Normandy Four format were attended by representatives of Ukraine, Germany, France and Russia, who discussed conflict resolution in eastern Ukraine.
Mikhail Metzel | TASS | beautiful pictures
Russia’s dealings – or more precisely, clashes – with the West focus on one country that has been a particular focus of confrontations in recent years: Ukraine.
It returned to focus this week with a series of high-profile meetings taking place between Russian and Western officials, focused on trying to diffuse rising tensions between Russia and its neighbour.
One particular issue now is whether Ukraine – a border state between Russia and the rest of Europe, and a country aspiring to join the EU – can one day become a member of the military alliance. the NATO Westernization or not.
This is a possibility that Russia strongly opposes.
As the Council of Russia prepares to meet NATO officials in Brussels on Wednesday, CNBC has a guide to why Russia cares so much about Ukraine and how far it might be willing to go to prevent Ukraine from joining the alliance.
Why is Ukraine important?
Relations between European neighbors hit a low point in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine and the country supported a pro-Russian uprising in the east of the country, where low-level skirmishes between the Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian troops have continued since then.
However, tensions have increased further in recent months, amid reports of mass Russian troops massing on the border with Ukraine, prompting speculation that Russia is preparing to invade the land. this country.
Russia has denied it plans to do so many times, and the US, EU and NATO have warned Russia that it will do so, as President Joe Biden told President Vladimir Putin in a phone call on the 30th. December, “respond decisively if Russia continues to invade Ukraine.”
However, how far the West will go to protect Ukraine is a big question.
What does Russia want?
Last month, Russia laid out several key demands on the West when it comes to Ukraine that, among other security issues, in a draft confidentiality treaty.
In this content, it requires the US to prevent further eastward expansion of NATO and not to allow the countries of the former Soviet Union to join the alliance.
In the draft treaty, Russia also demanded that the US “not establish military bases” on the territory of any former Soviet country that was not a member of NATO, or “use their for any military operations or to develop bilateral military cooperation with them.”
Although not named in the draft treaty, Ukraine is an obvious target for the Russians; Ukraine is a republic of the former Soviet Union, as is Russia’s allies Belarus, Azerbaijan, Moldova and Armenia, among others. The former Soviet states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are already NATO members.
Russia has and often expressed dislike of US missile defense complexes in Poland and Romania in Eastern Europe and the consolidation of NATO’s presence, of “battle-ready combat groups”, as NATO describes it, in the Baltic countries and Poland.
For their part, the United States and NATO have said that asking Ukraine not to join NATO, or to withdraw NATO’s deployments in Eastern Europe, is “not a start,” in the words of US Deputy Secretary Wendy Sherman, who is leading the charge. America. The delegation held talks with Russian officials in Geneva on Monday.
While she noted that the US had rejected Russia’s security proposals, her Russian counterpart Sergei Ryabkov said the talks, which lasted about seven hours, were “difficult” and signaled that Russia’s demands Moscow has not changed. sure that Ukraine never – never – became a member of NATO. “
No clear progress has been made in the talks on Monday, hopes are being pinned on further discussions between Russian and NATO officials in Brussels on Wednesday and further discussions on Thursday. Year at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in Vienna.
Why is Russia doing this?
Putin made no secret of the fact that he considered the breakup of the Soviet Union a disaster for Russia, and described it as “the greatest geopolitical tragedy” in 20 years.order century.
Ukraine is of particular importance to Russia due to its location – it stands as a bulwark between Russia and the eastern EU states – as well as a symbolic and historical importance for Russia. , often considered a “jewel in the crown” of the former Soviet Union.
Putin praised the cultural, linguistic and economic ties Ukraine has with Russia, describing Russians and Ukrainians as “one people” last year. He even wrote an essay on the subject, titled “On the Historical Unification of Russians and Ukrainians.”
This sentiment is not universally requested in Ukraine, with the country’s government, under President Volodymyr Zelensky, looking westward in search of economic aid and geopolitical strength, especially in the wake of recent crises. after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.
Ukraine has repeatedly expressed its desire to join the EU and NATO, which represents a geopolitical blow to a resurgent Russia, which is competing to maintain power and influence in the region.
Many strategists and Russian political watchers believe that Putin, who has alternated between prime minister and president since late 1999, harbors a strong desire to invade Ukraine.
Maximilian Hess, a fellow at the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies, told CNBC on Tuesday that “Russia isn’t just trying to ban Ukraine from joining the alliance – which it has sought to do since Ukraine adopted the Action Plan. NATO Membership (MAP) 2008 – but also to remove Ukraine from the Western sphere of influence it has moved since the 2014 Ukrainian Revolution.”
“NATO membership is particularly symbolic, but Russia will not accept a situation where the West significantly extends military support to Ukraine.”
How far is Russia going?
One of the biggest questions facing Western officials is how far Russia is willing to go to stem Ukraine’s drift toward Europe and the West, and to strengthen and expand its presence as well. like their influence in this country.
At Monday’s talks, the Russian delegation insisted there were no plans to invade Ukraine, but analysts were not so sure.
Angela Stent, emeritus director of Georgetown University’s Center for Eurasian, Russian and Eastern European Studies told CNBC on Tuesday that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is still possible. “Assuming 50-50 at the moment,” she said, adding that it was likely a “more limited invasion” rather than a major invasion.
“That danger is still there,” she said.
Maximilian Hess agrees, noting that “I think Russia is prepared to go to war, but I don’t think the Kremlin will want a war that goes beyond the current fronts. Risks a sustained resistance. The stability of the Guerrillas would be very high, especially if they were to extend beyond Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts,” he said.
However, Russia needs to maintain a “credible threat of aggression,” especially since that is what plays a key role in bringing the United States to the negotiating table, Hess added.
“The danger of Russian re-invasion or expansion – Ukraine has of course faced a continued Russian invasion of Crimea and the proxy occupation of the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk – has never receded. completely over the past 8 years and the inability after these negotiations to limit Ukraine’s potential success is still seen as the key to the Kremlin’s long-term self-preservation,” he commented.
Meanwhile Tony Brenton, the former British ambassador to Russia, told CNBC on Tuesday that both Russia and the United States want to avoid a military confrontation and Moscow just wants what it sees as its interests “to be met”.
