Russia-India relations come under scrutiny as Moscow moves closer to China

India’s relationship with Russia remains steadfast as both sides seek to strengthen economic ties. But Moscow has also grown increasingly close to Beijing since invading Ukraine, and that raises important national security concerns for New Delhi.

India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar recently said that the country is ready to restart free trade negotiations with Russia.

“Our partnership is a topic of attention and commentary today, not because it has changed but because it hasn’t.” he saydescribes the relationship as “among the most stable” in the world.

Russia also wants “intensifying” free trade discussions with India, Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov speaking during his visit to Delhi. Manturov is also Moscow’s minister of commerce.

Harsh V. Pant, vice president for research and foreign policy at the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi, said that despite the show of economic cooperation, Indian leaders are “watching.” be careful” as Russia becomes increasingly isolated and moves closer to “China’s corner”. based on think tanks.

Russia’s “weak and vulnerable position” and its growing reliance on China for economic and strategic reasons are bound to worry India, he told CNBC.

Mr Pant noted that things are getting “more difficult every day because of the closeness we are witnessing between Beijing and Moscow”. “The pressure on India is growing, they certainly don’t want to see that happen.”

Mr. Pant added that New Delhi would try as best as possible to avoid a potential “Russia-China alliance or axis”. “Because that will have far-reaching consequences and will fundamentally change India’s foreign policy and strategic calculus.”

Have national interest reasons “Why India continues to buy cheap Russian oil and trade with them, this FTA is part of that,” said Sreeram Chaulia, dean of the Jindal School of International Relations in New Delhi.

But it appears that “the relationship is going downhill from a very high-value strategic partnership to a transactional one,” he noted, adding that “Moscow’s embrace of China is closer than ever.” ” does not bode well for India’s national security needs.

India, which holds the current G-20 presidency, has not yet condemned Russia overtakes invade Ukraine.

in it the newest foreign policy doctrine announced at the end of March, Russia noted that it would “continue to build a particularly favorable strategic partnership” with India.

New Delhi’s longstanding relationship with Moscow dates back to the Cold War. It is still heavily dependent on the Kremlin for its military equipment. This defense cooperation is very important Tensions between India along Himalayan border with an increasingly assertive China, says ORF’s Pant.

But Russia was unable to provide important defense supplies Analysts said they were committed to the Indian military due to the Ukraine war, which could strain relations.

March, Indian Armed Forces admitted to a congressional committee that a “major delivery” from Russia “won’t take place” in a report. “They sent us a text that they could not deliver it,” the IAF official said. The report does not mention the specifics of the delivery.

“Russia has delayed delivery of S-400 “So there’s a big question mark about Russia’s reliability,” said Chaulia of the Jindal School.

India’s dependence on Moscow has historically been seen as pivotal “to help curb Chinese aggression”, he added, to maintaining a stable balance of power against Beijing. .

Now, it cannot expect Russia to play “the same strategic role for India as it did before the Ukraine war. That is due to the technological deterioration of the military and the weakened position caused by the war”, he said. speak.

But China is also making moves to strengthen ties with Russia. In March, Chinese President Xi Jinping met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and the two leaders vowed to deepen their relationship.

Both sides seal one “unlimited” partnership in February last year — just before Russia invaded Ukraine — and agreed to have no “prohibited” areas of cooperation.

Felix K. Chang, a senior fellow at the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies, a Philadelphia-based think-tank, noted that the “Russian tilt” in Beijing’s favor “will obviously have a harm to India” if war breaks out between the two countries.

Even without war, “China’s warm relationship with Russia could encourage Beijing to pursue its interests more aggressively in South Asia, even at the disputed Himalayan border.” or with India’s surrounding neighbours.” he wrote in April. “That could also shift the balance of power between China and India and lead to greater regional tensions.”

So India needs to “accelerate” its outreach to the West, Chang added, “given how close the Russo-Ukraine war has brought China and Russia.”

Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi will join US President Joe Biden and his counterparts from Australia and Japan in Third Quad Leaders Summit in Sydney on May 24. Quad is one unofficial security The alignment of four major democracies has been formed in response to China’s growing power in the Indo-Pacific.

Rajan Menon, director of major strategic programs at Defense Priorities, a Washington-based think tank, said: “Although the US sees “China as the main competitor to US global hegemony,” , but they don’t see India that way.”

“On the contrary, they see India, today, as a counterweight to China,” he noted.

That overlapping strategic interest explains why Washington has not responded to India’s alignment with Moscow the way it has responded to the ‘unlimited’ friendship that China has built with Moscow, Menon said. Russia”.

For Russia, how to balance this burgeoning India-China dynamic will be its biggest challenge, Pant noted.

“It will be interesting to see how this triangle works,” he notes. In the past, it has worked because the three countries all have a unified sense when it comes to a multipolar world in which American unipolarism is the goal.”

“Today, for India, China’s effort to create hegemony in the Indo-Pacific is the goal. For Russia and China, the priorities are different from India,” Pant said. more. “Russia’s ability to manage India and China will come under scrutiny,” as New Delhi fears.