This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC’s senior market commentator, with ideas for trends, stocks, and market statistics. The split market persists, with enough strength in the energy, industrial and other value sectors easing the declines in recent weeks due to a spin on mega-growth stocks – which themselves are finally bouncing off new lows. The result is a tape that continues to drift ahead of a few of the better known catalysts – the midterm elections and the CPI report – while so far maintaining more than half of the reflective rally. strong after the October 13 CPI report shock. Markets are likely to recover, but so far there is no momentum to bounce off the lower end of the six-month range or break through the resistance watched. widely. Apple is in control of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, providing quite a bit of outperformance and “premium stability,” although the Big Tech overselling is easing slightly. The heavy layoffs at Meta hint that the time for “self-reliance” has come to keep the big tech platform profitable even after a messy purge of growth cloud stocks went bust last week. still going on. The energy sector hits new highs of a few cents, reasserting leadership – even if it’s starting to look a bit too popular with investors bidding for scarce profit growth and traders. Motivational translator has made a good commitment to the group. As far as the history of the market and mid-terms are known, a set of atmospheric conditions are encouraging for stocks, but never any guarantees. The S&P 500 index has never dropped since 1950 in the six or 12 months following the midterm vote, and the average return for the year following the midterm is twice as high as all other years. It’s an encouraging backdrop, but of course there’s only been 18 years of midterm elections since 1950, not enough statistical record to go into it all. There is a school of thought, expressed by technical strategist John Kolovos at Macro Risk Advisors, that a “stealth bull market” can be created that, with the strength of smaller stocks, prices value, energy, industry, and health care were partly obscured by the heavy actions of the faltering growth leaders. Beyond power, the performance advantage in those areas is mostly relative rather than absolute, but worth keeping an eye on. US Dollar Index is weaker again, now down a few points from highs, as markets seem ready to see last week’s jobs data and Fed comments are not so hot/hawkish than predicted. All of this is quite coincidental, S&P 500 still churning below resistance, earnings forecast inching lower, heavily dependent by bulls on location and seasonal factors. But it should be remembered that recent lows were made amid widespread concern that financial markets will break under policy pressure (Fed, UK, Central Bank of Japan) and a weak earnings season. impressive but also not alarming. Market breadth is fairly evenly split, VIX steady near 25 – continues to show up early in the day and fades – and credit is still in there ok.