Rapid technological innovation – Harmless renewable energy policy – Key to lighting our energy future
by Judith Curry
Framework for the dramatic transformation of our energy systems.
Here is the text of my latest oped for Australia Sky news:
Australia’s rapid transition to fossil fuel electric power systems is posing significant new risks to its electric power system. The transition of the power system to produce less reliable and more expensive electricity serves as a tourniquet that restricts the lifeblood of modern society.
Attempts to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels by limiting the production and use of fossil fuels backfired by making many countries dependent on Russian fossil fuels. Russia’s war with Ukraine creates a bitter conflict between net zero emissions goals versus the immediate need for an abundant, reliable, and safe energy source. Europe and other countries are struggling with inadequate supplies of natural gas, after restricting fossil fuel production in their own countries.
In the transition to cleaner energy sources, we need to recognize that the world will need more energy than it currently consumes – not only in developing countries but also in countries with economies of scale. advanced. Building, operating, and maintaining low-carbon energy systems in themselves will require a significant amount of energy, much of which is currently derived from fossil fuels. Increased use of electric vehicles and electric heat pumps will increase electricity demand. More electricity can help reduce our vulnerability to weather and climate: air conditioners, domestic desalination plants, irrigation, vertical farming operations, water pumps, coastal defense system and environmental monitoring system. Furthermore, abundant power is the key to innovations in advanced materials, advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence, robotics, photonics, quantum computing, and others that are currently unforeseen or inconceivable.
In the short term, laying the groundwork for new energy systems is far more important than trying to phase out the use of fossil fuels. This should focus on developing and testing new energy technologies. There will continue to be a demand for fossil fuels in the coming decades. Countries that restrict fossil fuel production will not only cause economic damage to themselves. Paradoxically, limiting fossil fuel production in the near term will actually slow down the energy transition, which requires a significant amount of energy to make.
Best used over the next three decades is to continue to develop and test a range of options for energy production, storage, transmission and other technologies to support reliable energy goals. reliable, low cost while reducing environmental impact and carbon footprint. A more conservative strategy is to use the next two to three decades as a learning period with new technologies, and smart trial and error.
Short-term goals for CO2 emissions, such as 75% renewable by 2035, accelerate the energy transition to using existing technologies in ways that are counterproductive in the long term. The urgency of making such a major transition can lead to bad decisions that not only harm the economy and general human well-being, but also slow progress in reducing carbon emissions.
Rapid technological innovation across all sectors of the global energy industry continues to accelerate: long-distance transmission and smart microgrids, energy storage, residential heating, electric vehicles and advancements significant in advanced kernel design. Different countries and localities will use different combinations of these innovations based on their location, local resources, energy needs, and socio-political preferences.
Australia’s innovation in the energy transition is the speed at which wind and solar power are deployed while displacing fossil fuels. In a country with low population densities and abundant wind and solar resources, Australia is acting as a fast follower and contributing to the learning curve to rapidly move fossil fuels to energy. renewable quantity. However, Australia’s contribution to the global learning curve is diminished because few countries share the same geographic resources. Furthermore, the decreasing urgency of meeting emissions targets (Part I) devalues the global learning curve associated with the rapid replacement of fossil fuels with renewable energy. create.
The challenge is to make Australia’s efforts geared towards the transition to the 21st centuryst The century-old energy system supports the economy and efforts to reduce Australia’s vulnerability to extreme weather and climate conditions.
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