In all its forms, the amount of rain is piling up in a wet January, though The drought is still there in some areas. Cool weather also reversed our warm December pattern – but how long will it last?
Fuel for frozen precipitation in a wet month
The sky opened up and brought different types of rain, making for an overall wet month. The National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI) reports a statewide preliminary average rainfall of 4.70 inches and ours January 29 wettest since 1895.
East of Piedmont was one of the wettest areas after that mixed rain – from rain 3 months 1 snow rain on January 16 snowfall January 21. hill chapel had 6.26 inches of precipitation and January was the 11th wettest of the past 122 years, while Raleigh received 5.97 inches to tie in the wettest December on record.
Farther east, Roanoke Rapids 6.64 inches, or 2.98 inches above normal, and the second wettest January since 1962. Hatteras7.10 inches was made for the wettest January 14 on record there.
It is also a It is worth noting that the month has snow for most of the state. Edenton 5.2 inches – mostly during the January 21 storm that brought the northeast’s highest total – was the most snowfall in a month there since January 2018. In CharlotteThe heaviest 4.3 inches of snow was the most since 8.4 inches in February 2014.
Greensboro measure the snow in each of our four weekend events, ending the month with 1.8 inches on January 29. Those four snowfalls over a four-week period were the first with such frequency in the Triad since January 2000. Their monthly total of 8.2 inches also exceeded the daily average. five is 7.1 inches.
However, not all areas get snow – or wet weather in general. Wilmington saw only a few shards along with a layer of ice on January 21, and total monthly rainfall was 4.14 inches, 0.3 inches above normal.
While parts of the Mountains saw snowfall on January 3 and 16, late-month offshore storms mostly made landfall in western North Carolina, and they ended the month with below-normal rainfall.
Forest of Pisgah January 21 had the driest day since 1940 and was 2.4 inches below normal monthly rainfall. In southern Macon County, Plateau – climatologically, one of our wettest spots, averaging over 88 inches per year – begins 2022 on a dry note, with 4.68 inches and the 31st driest January on record.
That continues a dry winter so far, with the Highlands seeing only about half of its normal rainfall since December 1 – 9.03 inches of the typical December and January total. is 16.64 inches.
Despite Snow, Some Lingers Drought
After three consecutive months of drought in October, Novemberand December, our January rainfall helped reverse widespread drought across much of the state. However, one wet month is not enough to completely eliminate all signs of dryness.
While your backyard may have been damp and the streams were murmuring after a recent infusion of moisture, drought and its effects go far beyond the skin.
The ground may be saturated, but deeper soil is still dry across the northern and western Piedmont and within the Sandhills – areas like where the Moderate Drought (D1) is on the US Drought Monitor.
Groundwater levels also take longer to respond to rainfall, and it often takes an extended period of rain to fully recover from seasonal shortfalls like we experienced late last year. Even after a wet January, wells in the Central Coast Delta continue to be below normal for this time of year. In the west, groundwater levels have dropped further after another dry month.
Springs in the Mountains and Foothills received a short-term increase in snow melt, but many gauges ended the month below their average. That includes the South Toe River near Celo and the French Broad River at Blantyre, both below their historic 10th percentile in January.
Even some spots that had snowfall in January did not collect enough rain to overcome the fall deficit. When Charlotte 0.7 inches wetter than usual in January, it’s still 3.1 inches below normal from 1/11.
Many Western locations are even bigger three-month deficitincluding 8.0 inches below normal in Boone8.1 inches below normal in North Wilkesboroand 12.0 inches below normal in Brevard.
All in all, it’s a good reminder that the effects of drought can be harder to detect in winter, but a few weeks of warm or dry weather can quickly push these effects back to the surface – whether they are moist soil, newly sprouted vegetation, drip creeks or increase the risk of fire.
A Wintry Chill is coming
Last month didn’t feel like spring thanks to frozen rainfall and cooler temperatures. NCEI records a statewide preliminary mean temperature of 39.4°Fwas bound for our The coolest January 59 over the past 128 years and 1.4°F colder than the average from 1991 to 2020.
After the harsh winters of recent weeks, it’s easy to forget that we’ve started the month in a warm weather that has flowers blooming and grass lush green out of season.
The direct passage on 3 January ushered in a much colder air mass, and also signaled a paradigm shift that has been dodging us for most of the month, as a series of Canadian high pressure system sneak in from the northwest.
Waynesville tied for the 21st coldest January since 1895, while it was the 24th coldest in Asheboro dates back to 1927. Tarboro January was the 19th coldest since 1893. In most areas, it was the coolest January since another snowy month in January 2018.
With a warm December and a cool January now in the books, February is set to be the month to end this winter. For now, the odds are in favor of warmer weather along the way.
For one, four of the past five February were warmer than usual in North Carolina, and each February from 2017 to 2020 ranked in the top 11 warmest on record. These Februarys are a classic case of “false spring” – a few weeks of warm weather encouraging farmers and gardeners to plant early, followed by temperatures dropping below freezing in March and April. reduced yields in late winter.
Events in La Niña are the same as where we are now also favors warm February, even in winter with cooler weather. That snowy January in 2018 was followed by one of our warmest February in profile.
Likewise, January 2000 – notable for back-to-back snowfalls in the Trilogy and Hurricane “Carolina Crusher” in the Triangle – followed by our warmest February 26, which saw an increase in drought in the Mountains.
Current projections for North Carolina and much of the eastern seaboard are at least one 50% chance of above normal temperature this month, driven by the ongoing La Niña pattern and jet ridge development off our east coast.
That’s by no means a guarantee we’ll be out of cold or snow this winter, but the freezer doors are at least likely to open with our cool, snowy post-January thaw.
