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Putin wants to weaken the West. He does the opposite


Russian President Vladimir Putin checks his watch before a news conference with French President Emmanuel Macron, in Moscow, Russia, February 7, 2022.

Thibault Camus | Reuters

If there’s anything we’ve learned about President Vladimir Putin During his more than 22 years in power in Russia, it is precisely that he has systematically and repeatedly tried to weaken and weaken the West.

But during his invasion of Ukraine, he seems to have achieved the exact opposite, trying to unite most of the international community in condemning Russia’s aggression against its neighbour.

“NATO is united – more than at any time since the collapse of the Soviet Union – with a new sense of purpose and mission,” said Ian Bemmer, president of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group. .

“So is the European Union: Germany is in favor of ending its economic dependence on Russia and is almost doubling its defense spending; France is involved … even Hungary is leaning towards Moscow as well.” condemned the invasion, supported a crippling punitive regime and is allowing in hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees,” Bremmer said in emailed comments Monday.

The West is used to Russia behaving like a “malicious actor” on the global stage with interfere in democratic processes such as meddling in the 2016 US election or supporting far-right political groups in Europe or monitoring state-sponsored cyberattacks and weaponization of the energy supply with the recent increase in gas prices in Europe. It is also considered responsible for a nerve agent attack on British soil in 2018 and has since been sanctioned. Putin was later accused of ordering a nerve agent attack on his political enemy and biggest critic, Alexei Navalny, in 2020. Russia denies involvement in both attacks, though despite evidence to the contrary.

With such a background of bad behavior and geopolitical interference, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine should come as no surprise, especially given the country’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and its overt efforts to influence Ukraine. politically towards its former Soviet neighbors, such as Belarus and Georgia.

Despite imposing sanctions on Russia over its annexation of Crimea, the West has been accused of not being tough enough with Moscow, with analysts suggesting that Putin has learned from the Crimean experience that he has It is possible to invade and annex part of a sovereign state and essentially get rid of it.

But now, with Russia’s invasion of northern, southern and eastern Ukraine on February 24, the West looks more united than it was years ago. Recent divisions within, within and between NATO, the EU, the UK and other developed nations seem to disappear overnight as nations unite to help Ukraine defeat Russia.

The world is ‘pulling together’

Global diplomatic circuits have been busy in recent months as officials largely fear Russia is preparing for some kind of attack on Ukraine, although the full-scale invasion has prompted many analysts Surprisingly, most expected a smaller-scale invasion of eastern Ukraine.

Since the invasion, there has been a further series of high-level and emergency meetings, visits and video calls between the leaders of NATO countries with previous disagreements between members of the alliance. intelligence – on a range of issues from defense spending to refugees, Brexit and energy security – rests on burning ground.

A protester holds a sign of Unity against Putin outside the White House in Washington, D.C., on March 6, 2022, during a pro-Ukraine rally.

Stefani Reynolds | AFP | beautiful pictures

Many public protests have been held around the world against Putin and his war in Ukraine while many iconic brands have withdrawn from Russia, turning the country into a bad guy on the global stage. .

“Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine is reshaping European politics and – possibly – beyond,” Berenberg Bank Chief Economist Holger Schmieding noted in the latest report. macro impact of the conflict. “The free world seems to be pulling together like it rarely has before,” he added.

Even before the war, Schmieding notes, Russia had begun to resemble some of the features “of a Soviet-style oil and gas economy with an oversized military sector and ultimately unstoppable imperial ambitions.” okay” and seems to lag behind the advanced world.

Now, the costs of war, increasing domestic repression, and harsh Western sanctions “will likely hasten the economic collapse of Putin’s Russia much more and more rapidly than it could.” The costly occupation of Afghanistan contributed to the erosion of Soviet power in the 1980s,” noted Schmieding.

NATO strengthens

While Putin seems increasingly isolated, Western democracies are tightening support for Ukraine while trying to avoid perceived military intervention, a move that could easily spark a conflict. broader global and destructive for Russia.

During his State of the Union address last week, President Joe Biden commented on the cohesion of the West during the crisis, saying “we see unity among the leaders of the nations.” and a more united Europe, a more united West” added that “in the battle between democracy and autocracy, democracy is rising in the moment.”

Democracies in the West may be on the rise right now, but Russia’s invasion has certainly posed an ethical, military and geopolitical dilemma for the EU and NATO.

Even China is worried

Giving evidence before Congress on Tuesday, CIA Director Bill Burns said that China Burns said: “Didn’t anticipate the significant difficulty the Russians would face, and I think they are uneasy about the reputational damage that could come from their close relationship with President Putin.

China has refused to condemn the Russian invasion but analysts believe that Chinese President Xi Jinping is unlikely to believe Putin would launch such an all-out offensive.

Although China has also offered to mediate peace talks and hold a phone call with the leaders of France and Germany on Tuesday, it still has to follow a stricter stance. with the Kremlin due to Xi Jinping’s commitment to deeper strategic cooperation with Moscow.

CIA Director Bill Burns echoed many other defense experts on Tuesday when he said Putin made fundamental mistakes when he entered Ukraine, believing the country was “weak” and underestimating resistance. that Russian forces would have to face there.

Burns said that Putin also believes he has “resisted sanctions” on his economy and modernized his military to the point where they could easily “win a decisive victory quickly at minimal cost.” .

Burns told Congress on Tuesday: “He’s been proven wrong on every count.



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