Tech

Putin ‘non-publicly’ threatens dangerous escalation in Ukraine war


However, Putin – whose military operation in Ukraine was much worse than anyone expected and had to face awkward failure — also unlikely to accept defeat or stalemate in Ukraine. “We are in a really dangerous place; After shoving all the chips in the pot and with no success so far, he is inciting atrocities and targeting civilians and threatening nuclear consequences if we all continue to aid Ukraine, “Schake said. “It was a really dangerous moment… I can think of a lot of ways for things to go awry.”

Dmitri Alperovich, a cybersecurity veteran, co-founder of Crowdstrike, and founder of the Silverado Policy Accelerator, said the scale and speed of economic sanctions against Russia are certain surprised Putin. “Those things will have a devastating effect on Russia and its economy,” he said. “I fear we are putting him in a position where he has nothing to lose.”

It seems unlikely that Russia’s actions, both in Ukraine and potentially in cyberspaces abroad, will only grow with intensity and violence. “Putin escalates and escalates to prevent losses is the most likely scenario,” Schake said. “I have a hard time understanding what is the face-saving option for Russia.”

The outcome that a week ago, the invasion, might have seemed to be the end of the crisis initiated by Russia — as a tacit agreement that Ukraine would not become an EU or NATO member or progress on the Agreement The Minsk agreement could recognize Russia’s occupation of Crimea or eastern Ukraine — seemingly indisputable, given the punitive war and Western unification already underway.

Instead, Alperovich says Russia could move to escalate a broader economic war against the West, weaponizing standard Russian exports like fertilizer, aluminum, nickel and titanium to punish penalize Western trading partners, further worsening global supply chains and heating up already high inflation. While Russia’s dependence on oil and gas exports makes energy an unlikely lever, except as a last resort, Alperovich notes, for example, that Ukraine is the world’s leading exporter of neon gas used in the production of semiconductors. Any attempt by Russia to disrupt those exports would further hamper the already seen chip production. Pandemic shortages freeze industries like auto manufacturing. “Those are the areas where they can cause economic costs without incurring them en masse,” says Alperovich.

While Russia is unlikely to make much use of its heralded cyber capabilities so far as part of its invasion of Ukraine, the West’s sustained campaign against Russia will almost certainly see cyber consequences in the days and weeks to come. “I have always been of the opinion that if we cut them off from SWIFT, we will have to retaliate for our financial sector. I think that’s almost a certainty,” Clapper said.

Alperovich also said that he hoped to see Russian cyber actions aimed at disrupting European and NATO unity, but such effects could be limited. “It’s really hard to do long-term damage to cyberspace,” he said. “They can shut everything down for a few hours or a few days, but we have a lot of capacity to get everything back online. But it could cause an escalation that requires us to respond.”



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