By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
In the event you want to take a
by-the-numbers strategy to handicapping Sunday’s $100,000 Bob Hope S. (G3) at
Del Mar, a fundamental conclusion can shortly be drawn: coach Bob Baffert is sort of
sure to win.
In spite of everything, Baffert has gained
the Bob Hope 10 instances since 1996, together with 4 instances since 2015. Moreover,
Baffert circumstances three of the 5 juveniles entered on this yr’s version
of the seven-furlong dash.
However is Baffert inevitably
assured to win the Bob Hope? Not essentially—in any case, there aren’t any certainties in racing.
Let’s undergo the sector in horse-by-horse vogue and see if we are able to establish
a dwell upset candidate:
#1 Messier: The
first of the Baffert trainees was favored at 1-2 to win his debut at Los
Alamitos through the summer time, however he did not get off to the quickest begin and
might solely rally late to complete second. Nevertheless, the stoutly bred son of Empire
Maker took a giant step ahead in a six-furlong maiden particular weight at Santa
Anita final month. Getting back from a four-month layoff, Messier tracked a fast
early tempo earlier than seizing command to win by 6 1/2 lengths with a 91 Brisnet
Pace ranking.
Produced by a stakes-winning
Sensible Strike mare, Messier shall be ridden on Sunday by Flavien Prat (a forty five%
winner when teaming up with Baffert) and is likely to be the perfect of the Baffert trio
whereas dropping blinkers for his stakes debut. There’s numerous long-term
potential right here.
#2 Kamui: After
crossing the wire second in his debut at Del Mar (he was finally
disqualified to 3rd for inflicting interference), Baffert’s Kamui delivered an
improved efficiency at Los Alamitos, surviving a tempo duel to win a 5
1/2-furlong maiden particular weight by six lengths. He hasn’t run in two months,
however enters the Bob Hope off a pointy collection of exercises, together with a bullet 5
furlongs in :58 3/5 at Santa Anita two weeks in the past.
However Kamui was overwhelmed in his
debut by Forbidden Kingdom, who’s again within the Bob Hope subject, and the 87
Brisnet Pace ranking Kamui posted in his maiden win seems to be just a little gentle
in comparison with a few of his Sunday rivals. Messier might have a stronger win likelihood.
#3 Successful Map: The
third and remaining Baffert trainee is the one undefeated entrant within the Bob Hope
subject, having crushed his Oct. 3 debut at Santa Anita by 4 1/4 lengths. The son
of Breeders’ Cup Grime Mile (G1) winner Liam’s Map led all the way in which to submit a 95
Brisnet Pace ranking, the best determine in Sunday’s race.
Successful Map shall be guided
within the Bob Hope by Corridor of Fame jockey Mike Smith, who not too long ago teamed up with
Baffert to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) aboard Corniche. It is onerous to
knock the possibilities of this $525,000 public sale acquisition, although Messier—along with his
bettering profile and classics-oriented pedigree—might need extra upside.
#4 Rock N Rye: A
veteran of 5 begins, Rock N Rye has competed completely in opposition to
Califonia-bred firm, profitable the Commencement S. earlier than inserting within the I am
Smokin S. and Royal Owl S. The son of Keep Thirsty is flexible by way of
working type, however his career-best 86 Brisnet Pace ranking is decrease than these of
his Sunday rivals, suggesting he’ll want enchancment to problem for a
top-three end within the Bob Hope.
#5 Forbidden Kingdom: If
anybody can upset the Baffert trio, it is most likely Forbidden Kingdom. A son of
2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, Forbidden Kingdom displayed
unwavering tenacity in his debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Del Mar. After
sprinting to the lead by way of fast fractions of :21.92 and :45.51, Forbidden
Kingdom dug deep to show again a number of challenges and beat Kamui by half a
size.
Forbidden Kingdom
subsequently switched to turf for the five-furlong Speakeasy S. at Santa Anita,
the place he broke slowly earlier than advancing to duel for command by way of a blazing
:21.01 opening quarter. However, Forbidden Kingdom stayed on gamely to
end third, overwhelmed solely 3 1/4 lengths by a number of stakes winner One Timer.
I am optimistic Forbidden
Kingdom will bounce again with a aggressive effort whereas returning to filth in
the Bob Hope. He enters off a pair of sharp exercises at Del Mar, together with 5
furlongs in :59 3/5, and jockey Juan Hernandez has gone 2-for-4 (50%) teaming
up with Richard Mandella over the past two months. Drawing an outdoor submit
affords Forbidden Kingdom choices for figuring out a really perfect journey, so if he
improves in any respect off the 90 Brisnet Pace ranking he posted on debut, an upset
victory could be inside attain.
Choices
1st: Forbidden Kingdom
2nd: Messier
third: Successful Map
Now it is your flip! Who do
you want within the Bob Hope?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also referred to as “Keelerman”) is a author, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing fanatic. An important fan of racing historical past, he considers Dr. Fager to be the best racehorse ever produced in America, however counts Zenyatta as his all-time favourite.
