Philippine President Duterte’s pivot to China does not reduce tensions in the South China Sea
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in April 2019 in Beijing, China.
Kenzaburo Fukuhara | Kyodo News | beautiful pictures
More than five years on, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s Beijing-friendly stance has not subdued China’s assertiveness in the disputed South China Sea – and the next Philippine leader should be bolder in this. challenging Beijing, said a political and risk analyst.
The Philippines will host general election to elect a new president in May as Duterte’s six-year term comes to an end. Duterte sought closer ties with Beijing and declared its readiness to put aside its territorial dispute with China in the East Sea.
China and its Southeast Asian neighbors including the Philippines have been embroiled in territorial disputes in the South China Sea for decades.
China claims almost the entire waterway. In recent years, China has built artificial islands in the sea, while Chinese fishing fleets and Marine militia ship crowded areas are internationally recognized as belonging to other countries.
“The most favorable scenario for the Philippines would be a change in mindset of the elected leader,” said Peaches Lauren Vergara, head of strategic intelligence at Amador Research Services, a research and consulting firm. in May 2022.
Mr. Vergara wrote in a December report published by the Asian Institute of Social Policy.
CNBC has reached out to the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs, as well as the Chinese embassies in Singapore and the Philippines, for comment on the report. There were no answers at the time of publication.
Tensions with China
With just a few months to go into Duterte’s presidency, China’s promised infrastructure investments to the Philippines have fallen short of expectations, while tensions between Manila and Beijing are rising again in the Philippines. East Sea, according to a December report by the think tank International Crisis Group.
“Many people in the Philippines are increasingly skeptical of cooperation with China if it renounces its claims to various disputed waters,” reads the report.
Vergara in a report by the Asian Institute of Social Policy said that the South China Sea, a resource-rich waterway, contributes about 27% of the Philippines’ total fisheries production. A group of scientists have warned that China’s activities in disputed waters threaten fishing industry.
Meanwhile, tensions with China have hampered the Philippines’ oil and gas exploration efforts in the waters.
“This has serious consequences for the country’s ability to achieve energy security as the primary source of natural gas for electricity – Malampaya – nearly exhausted,” Vergara said.
Some in the Duterte government have more harshly opposed the presence of Chinese ships in parts of the South China Sea that are internationally recognized as belonging to the Philippines.
In May, Secretary of State Teodoro Locsin Jr. directed an unusually aggressive tweet in Beijing when the two countries clashed over the South China Sea. Locsin Jr accused China of straining “friendship” with the Philippines.
Philippine presidential race
Mr. Vergara said that China’s growing assertiveness and Mr. Duterte’s “betrayal” of Beijing have pushed issues around the South China Sea into the spotlight of the public in the Philippines.
Some analysts have suggested that seemingly pro-China Philippine presidential candidates could face public opposition.
Former Senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., son of late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, speaks to the media after submitting his candidacy for the 2022 presidential race, at the Sofitel Harbor Garden Tent on October 6, 2021 in Pasay, Metro Manila, Philippines.
Rouelle Umali | Getty Images News | beautiful pictures
Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr – the son and eponymous son of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos – has led the latest public opinion poll on the presidential race. In a December survey by independent voter Pulse Asia, 53% of respondents chose Marcos Jr. their favorite presidential candidate.
Compared to Duterte, Marcos Jr will seek a “more balanced relationship” with the US and China if he is elected, Peter Mumford, head of risk consultancy Eurasia Group, said in a report last month. .
Navigating US-China competition
The South China Sea is one of the contentious issues in the geopolitical competition between the US and China. Administration of the President of the United States Joe Biden Yes called out China’s “illegal” statement and “bullying” at sea.
The Philippines is in a challenging position in that competition. Southeast Asian country has a defense treaty with the United States, while China is its largest neighbor and top economic partner.
“An important question remains whether the Philippines can navigate between China and the United States without an armed confrontation forcing it to choose which side,” said the International Crisis Group.
“For now, Manila is hedging well. But its balancing act could soon become impossible as Beijing seeks to assert its ambitions in the region and Washington pushes back,” it added.
The think tank said the Philippines cannot resolve the South China Sea dispute on its own. States should work with neighboring countries on issues of mutual interest, such as fisheries management and law enforcement, to manage their territorial disputes.
The Philippines should also promote the finalization of a “code of conduct” between Southeast Asian countries and China to manage maritime tensions, while keeping the diplomatic channel with Beijing open to reduce misunderstandings, according to the report. International Crisis Group.
“None of these steps will resolve increasingly acrimonious maritime disputes, but they can help reduce the risk that incidents at sea will escalate into conflict.”
