Imran Khan, prime minister of Pakistan, arrives for the Opening Ceremony of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics at Beijing National Stadium, last month.
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Imran Khan, prime minister of Pakistan, arrives for the Opening Ceremony of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics at Beijing National Stadium, last month.
Carl Court / Getty Images
ISLAMABAD – Not long ago, many in Pakistan thought that Imran Khan, the politician turned cricket star, could take all risks to become the only prime minister in recent history to truly serve the full term.
After all, he was relatively famous. And more importantly, he enjoys the unwavering support of the military, which many say helped him come to power in 2018.
But Khan’s fortunes quickly changed. The army seems to have withdrawn its support and defected within the ranks of Khan’s party, known as Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insafor PTI, which means a motion of no confidence in parliament scheduled for Monday, looks like it has a good chance of succeeding.
The army retreated from the Khan
Khan’s shaky grip on power has produced more than the usual amount of political turmoil in Pakistan. The current crisis flared up after the military seemed to suddenly turn against him, signaling to the opposition that prime minister’s season was open.
“The Opposition now has control over the freedom to pursue Khan,” Madiha Afzala fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Even Khan’s alliance partners are taking advantage of the chaos to try to generate better deals.
Meanwhile, violence is feared as opposition parties are planning their own mass rally to coincide with the start of debate on the no-confidence movement on Monday. To prevent the incident, security forces moved razor wire throughout major roads. Analysts fear that if the chaos escalates, the military could step in to restore order, as it has done many times before in Pakistan’s 75-year history.
The turmoil comes as Pakistan negotiates with the International Monetary Fund to release the much-needed next installment of its $6 billion bailout.
“History tells us what happens when there is no decision,” Najam Sethia journalist and editor of The Friday Times. If the “opposition and the government continue to go bankrupt,” said Sethi, and you are facing financial bankruptcy and now you are politically bankrupt,” he continued, “that’s when the military is directly take part. “
Pandemic-related inflation is pushing food and fuel prices. And it is expected to worsen when shortage fertilizer for plants maybe cut wheat productionas well as global prices skyrocketing in the context of Russia’s invasion.
“Inflation has become unbearable. What can anyone do, except cry, or curse him?” mechanic Muhammad Zubair, 35, who lives in the capital, Islamabad, talks about the prime minister.
There are troubles with the Taliban next door
Khan’s troubles are also closely tied to events across the western border of the country. The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August underscored his sympathy for the group, as he told the audience that the regime change meant that Afghans were “break the chains of slavery.” The comments only serve to address an already strained relationship with Washington.
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, left, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, meet at the Kremlin in Moscow, on February 24 this year, the same day Russian troops invaded Ukraine.
Anadolu Agency / Kremlin Press Office / Handouts / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
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Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, left, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, meet at the Kremlin in Moscow, on February 24 this year, the same day Russian troops invaded Ukraine.
Anadolu Agency / Kremlin Press Office / Handouts / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
Khan also appears to have angered some in the military with his foreign policy decisions, such as his visit to Moscow to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on the very day the invasion of Ukraine began.
“The relationship started to have some cracks,” Afzal said.
To others who support Khan, he is seen as an outspoken man who has helped the poor through the establishment of health insurance and cash payment programs. He stands in opposition to many other Pakistani political leaders, who are widely seen as corrupt.
“He’s not like thieves who are making money for themselves and their children. Imran Khan cares about the whole country,” said Fazl-e-Wadood, a 28-year-old laborer with seven children in Islamabad. said, adding that his support for Khan was so strong that he would “even give my life” for the prime minister.
Kahn has also drawn sympathy from Pakistanis tired of their legislators jumping ship as the political winds change. It was so popular that a newspaper editorial even named it Pakistan a “penal theft regime” pun “lota” – a type of train used by Pakistanis to wash up after going to the toilet. The word can also be used to mean a political coat.
Political instability, while not uncommon in Pakistan, has always been a cause for concern in the nuclear-armed nation of more than 220 million people, which has been ruled by generals for nearly half of its history. .
In Khan’s latest case, the army’s abandonment of the prime minister is evident above all else, as he is seen by many as having joined the army for his current position.
Before the 2018 election, Amnesty International described a media suppression and Analysts said is a campaign to defeat the ally of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Sharif herself was excluded from politics in 2017after a corruption scandal surrounding his family.
Essentially, the military “staged elections to bring Imran Khan to power,” says journalist Sethi.
Khan’s PTI denies such claims, pointing out that the party has gained immense popularity among the country’s conservative middle class.
But even after polls, when Khan was unable to form a majority government, Sethi and others say the military has pushed smaller parties to form a supportive coalition. In fact, Khan’s government was so closely associated with the military that it was described by many as a “hybrid rule”, Zahid Hussainan author and columnist for the English daily newspaper Dawn. “The military is part of a power deal that has been active for the past three and a half years.”
Khan is widely seen as mismanaging the economy and governance of Pakistan’s most populous province of Punjab, where he appoints a non-political as prime minister.
He has been quarantined by military support. But then, Sethi and other analysts say, the military began to distance itself from Khan amid a series of perceived missteps.
Sharif’s tirade “beyond the Rubicon”
A turning point was the downfall of Sharif, the ousted prime minister who remains one of Pakistan’s most popular political figures. He boldly called out the military’s name – accusing Army Chief of Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa and former head of Pakistan’s powerful intelligence agency, Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed, of engineer Khan’s rise to power.
“Who is responsible for the sabotage of this incompetent government of Imran?” Sharif asked in a speech that aired in October 2020.
Sethi described Sharif’s speech as having “beyond the Rubicon”, in a country where officials and media only refer to the military’s role in politics indirectly and linguistically, using code. like “foundation”, “invisible hand” and even “Ministry of Agriculture. ”
“Honestly, everyone was shocked,” Sethi said of Sharif’s public embarrassment. “That’s when I think the army starts to shake.”
Tensions arose after reports emerged that Khan denied weeks to sign the handover to Hameed, the director of intelligence. Afzal of the Brookings Institution said the move “is considered [Khan] tried to assert his power as prime minister. ”
“Many of us wondered at that point, how much it would cost him,” she said. “It’s a matter of shame for the military.”
Because the military has long insisted that it doesn’t interfere in politics, it’s just that their way of signaling a loss of faith in Khan is unclear, but the army was “forced to withdraw itself from the war”, Hussain said. , the columnist said. and author.
Military declares neutrality
Khan himself refers to the reversal or “neutrality” of the army as it is said in Pakistan, when the prime minister raged in a protest this week: “When there is a battle between good and evil, God asks us not to be neutral. Only animals are neutral.”
The army’s stance seems to have given impetus to the three largest opposition parties to try to make a decisive move against Khan. They are said to have got 162 votes in favor of the no-confidence movement and anti-Khan forces reckon they can remove enough of his own lawmakers to get the required 172 votes.
About one dozen among Khan’s legislators rebelled against him and was able to vote with the opposition.
Khan’s allies have appeal to the Supreme Courtis currently considering whether a legislator can defy their party’s instructions.
Right now, Khan is betting heavily on a rally set for Sunday. “I want the whole nation to come out,” he said in one special video message. Analysts say he hopes to attract enough people to intimidate wavering lawmakers and coalition allies.
“The government is trying to sabotage the whole process by calling their supporters to march on Islamabad and protest during the session, which means they are threatening the council,” Hussain said. “All of that has created a very, very difficult situation.”
