Overview of the week – scientific edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my attention in the past few weeks

Critical assessment of extreme events in the period of global warming [link]

Gavin confirmed that climate models are running too hot. Only 2 of the past 25 years were above the CMIP6 model mean, screened for “reasonable” TCR values. [link]

How temperature-related mortality in England and Wales varies with different degrees of global warming

Evaluation of combined climate model parameters through the Seasonal Variation Reconstruction Skill of the Monsoon [link]

New US flood risk report [link]

A historic sixfold increase in the Northern Hemisphere Simultaneously Large Heat Waves Driven by Warming and Altered Atmospheric Circulation [link]

Weather mode in changing climate conditions [link]

Combine machine learning and SMILE to categorize, better understand, and project changes in ENSO events

Regime change in total seasonal Antarctic sea ice [link]

What causes the Arctic Ocean to warm? A new study shows that interior air variability accounts for ~60% of rapid warming since 2000. [link]

CLIVAR Variations: Enhancing the value of #climate models and data for climate policy and impacts assessment [link]

Application of deep learning to capture the non-linear response of glacial mass balance to future climate change [link]

The impact of paleontology on the current and future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet [link]

A new climate model shows that conditions associated with severe storms will arise 5%-20% more frequently for every 1°C of global warming. [link]

Does turning off the cloud’s radiative feedback change the spatial patterns of surface greenhouse warming and cooling? Chalmers et al. 2022…

Evaluation of the likelihood of mixed storm and extreme flood discharge events in the river at the catchment scale using statistical models [link]

Protects minerals important for energy transition [link]

Did volcanoes accelerate the fall of Chinese dynasties? [link]

Radionuclides from ice cores and tree rims reveal that a powerful solar storm hit Earth about 9,200 years ago during the Sun’s quiet phase of the Sun’s 11-year cycle. [link]

Overcoming the challenges of ocean data uncertainty [link]

“The storm drains CO2 in the subarctic Southern Ocean” [link]

Policy and technology

Good overview of poor water management in India, with implications for their energy transition

McKinsey report: Spending needed for net-zero world is bigger than assumed [link] $9.2 trillion/year for 30 years to achieve netzero

Satellite detects large methane leak from gas pipeline [link]

Limited impact of carbon tax refunds on community support for carbon pricing [link]

Closing California’s Diablo nuclear plant results in a loss of carbon-free emissions equivalent to destroying every wind turbine or every rooftop solar panel in California. [link]

“Belgium’s plan to close nuclear power plants by 2025 could put energy supplies under pressure and drive up electricity prices further.” [link]

The end of Germany’s nuclear phase delayed the country’s coal exports by up to 8 years [link]

Germany’s nuclear elimination ignores the reality of energy [link]

A Soviet-era collision has set a methane-filled crater in Turkmenistan ablaze for half a century. Now, the president of the country wants to extinguish the eternal flames at the ‘Gateway to Hell’. [link]

Losing even one hectare of wetlands costs society an average of $1900 in flood damage per year, a new study finds.

The economics of trees: How much is the world willing to pay to save the Earth? Sadly, not much. [link]

Pielke et al: 2005-2050 Reasonable Emission Scenarios Project between 2 and 3C warming by 2100 [link]

Indicate the separate contributions of long- and short-lived greenhouse gases to emissions targets [link]

Risks of energy transition and red fish in 2022 [link]

How a debate over carbon capture has derailed California’s landmark climate bill [link]

New AMS Best Practice Statement: Extreme Cold Outbreaks: A Call to Action for Better Preparedness [link]

Texas Grid Failure Is a Warm-Up [link] Little has been done to prevent the next thing

Improved judgments about existential risk: better forecasts, questions, explanations, policies [link]

The promise of geothermal energy [link]

As coal use increases, it is difficult for the US to unplug from carbon [link]

Rare Earths: Fighting for the Fuel of the Future [link]

What are solar plants and can they replace solar panels? [link]

California is ready to destroy rooftop solar [link]

Electric vehicle battery recycling [link]

Reducing transportation emissions since the outbreak of the pandemic, and how the long-term transition to remote work could help make that change a little more permanent. (first)…

Yachts exempt from EU carbon pricing scheme [link]

Wildfires, climate change and the courts [link]

Sugarcane burning pollutes communities of color in Florida. Brazil shows there is another way. [link]

The climate is ripe for nuclear advances [link]

How green policies are fueling the energy crisis [link]

About science and scientists

What college students really think about cancellation culture [link]

Scientists must resist the abolition of culture [link]

Why is the Covid model so controversial? [link]

Interesting article: culinary fluid mechanics [link]

Academic freedom is contested in Hong Kong [link]

Jordan Peterson resigns as a retired professor [link]

We need to talk about vaccines [link]

The importance of equity in learning [link]

How our universities became sheep factories [link]

America’s leading environmental groups have failed to conspire on climate change [link]

Strengthening the integrity of science [link]

UK scientists have failed pandemic test [link]

Edward O. Wilson (1929–2021)

Stop blaming the climate for disasters [link]

Andy West’s Part II interview on the Powerful and Free podcast [link]

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