Weather

Overview of the week – scientific edition


by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my attention in the past few weeks

Critical assessment of extreme events in the period of global warming [link]

Gavin confirmed that climate models are running too hot. Only 2 of the past 25 years were above the CMIP6 model mean, screened for “reasonable” TCR values. [link]

How temperature-related mortality in England and Wales varies with different degrees of global warming https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac50d5

Evaluation of combined climate model parameters through the Seasonal Variation Reconstruction Skill of the Monsoon [link]

New US flood risk report [link]

A historic sixfold increase in the Northern Hemisphere Simultaneously Large Heat Waves Driven by Warming and Altered Atmospheric Circulation [link]

Weather mode in changing climate conditions [link]

Combine machine learning and SMILE to categorize, better understand, and project changes in ENSO events https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-105

Regime change in total seasonal Antarctic sea ice [link]

What causes the Arctic Ocean to warm? A new study shows that interior air variability accounts for ~60% of rapid warming since 2000. [link]

CLIVAR Variations: Enhancing the value of #climate models and data for climate policy and impacts assessment [link]

Application of deep learning to capture the non-linear response of glacial mass balance to future climate change [link]

The impact of paleontology on the current and future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet [link]

A new climate model shows that conditions associated with severe storms will arise 5%-20% more frequently for every 1°C of global warming. [link]

Does turning off the cloud’s radiative feedback change the spatial patterns of surface greenhouse warming and cooling? Chalmers et al. 2022 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0391.1…

Evaluation of the likelihood of mixed storm and extreme flood discharge events in the river at the catchment scale using statistical models [link]

Protects minerals important for energy transition [link]

Did volcanoes accelerate the fall of Chinese dynasties? [link]

Radionuclides from ice cores and tree rims reveal that a powerful solar storm hit Earth about 9,200 years ago during the Sun’s quiet phase of the Sun’s 11-year cycle. [link]

Overcoming the challenges of ocean data uncertainty [link]

“The storm drains CO2 in the subarctic Southern Ocean” [link]

Policy and technology

Good overview of poor water management in India, with implications for their energy transition https://judithcurry.com/2022/02/05/week-in-review-science-edition-133/

McKinsey report: Spending needed for net-zero world is bigger than assumed [link] $9.2 trillion/year for 30 years to achieve netzero

Satellite detects large methane leak from gas pipeline [link]

Limited impact of carbon tax refunds on community support for carbon pricing [link]

Closing California’s Diablo nuclear plant results in a loss of carbon-free emissions equivalent to destroying every wind turbine or every rooftop solar panel in California. [link]

“Belgium’s plan to close nuclear power plants by 2025 could put energy supplies under pressure and drive up electricity prices further.” [link]

The end of Germany’s nuclear phase delayed the country’s coal exports by up to 8 years [link]

Germany’s nuclear elimination ignores the reality of energy [link]

A Soviet-era collision has set a methane-filled crater in Turkmenistan ablaze for half a century. Now, the president of the country wants to extinguish the eternal flames at the ‘Gateway to Hell’. [link]

Losing even one hectare of wetlands costs society an average of $1900 in flood damage per year, a new study finds. https://l8r.it/yD72

The economics of trees: How much is the world willing to pay to save the Earth? Sadly, not much. [link]

Pielke et al: 2005-2050 Reasonable Emission Scenarios Project between 2 and 3C warming by 2100 [link]

Indicate the separate contributions of long- and short-lived greenhouse gases to emissions targets [link]

Risks of energy transition and red fish in 2022 [link]

How a debate over carbon capture has derailed California’s landmark climate bill [link]

New AMS Best Practice Statement: Extreme Cold Outbreaks: A Call to Action for Better Preparedness [link]

Texas Grid Failure Is a Warm-Up [link] Little has been done to prevent the next thing

Improved judgments about existential risk: better forecasts, questions, explanations, policies [link]

The promise of geothermal energy [link]

As coal use increases, it is difficult for the US to unplug from carbon [link]

Rare Earths: Fighting for the Fuel of the Future [link]

What are solar plants and can they replace solar panels? [link]

California is ready to destroy rooftop solar [link]

Electric vehicle battery recycling [link]

Reducing transportation emissions since the outbreak of the pandemic, and how the long-term transition to remote work could help make that change a little more permanent. (first) https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/pandemic-and-vehicle-miles-traveled…

Yachts exempt from EU carbon pricing scheme [link]

Wildfires, climate change and the courts [link]

Sugarcane burning pollutes communities of color in Florida. Brazil shows there is another way. [link]

The climate is ripe for nuclear advances [link]

How green policies are fueling the energy crisis [link]

About science and scientists

What college students really think about cancellation culture [link]

Scientists must resist the abolition of culture [link]

Why is the Covid model so controversial? [link]

Interesting article: culinary fluid mechanics [link]

Academic freedom is contested in Hong Kong [link]

Jordan Peterson resigns as a retired professor [link]

We need to talk about vaccines [link]

The importance of equity in learning [link]

How our universities became sheep factories [link]

America’s leading environmental groups have failed to conspire on climate change [link]

Strengthening the integrity of science [link]

UK scientists have failed pandemic test [link]

Edward O. Wilson (1929–2021) https://go.nature.com/33mCWWr

Stop blaming the climate for disasters [link]

Andy West’s Part II interview on the Powerful and Free podcast [link]





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