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Overview of the week – scientific edition


By Judith Curry

A few things that caught my attention in the past few weeks

Humans initially escaped the worse effects of the great volcanic eruption [link]

“Since 1951, the number of days of heavy rain per year across Germany has remained virtually unchanged, almost regardless of their definition.” https://mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/7/1950/htm…

Wild boars pose a bigger climate risk than a million cars [link]

Summer floods in Europe are rarer than in the past. Summer flooding in Western Europe over the past 500 years (red line) Blöschl et al 2020 https://nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2478-3

Extreme precipitation trends observed in Central Europe [link]

Observational evidence of positive feedback in the cloud [link]

Long-term decrease in Asian monsoon rainfall and abrupt climate change events over the past 6,700 years [link]

However, another new analysis of >8000 stations with daily precipitation data confirms that heavy rainfall events have become more frequent when aggregated globally. (Subject: 1 / n) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2018WR024067

Flood costs are falling (2nd row), not only for rich countries but for developing countries Costs are falling for most extreme weather for rich and poor for floods floods, flash floods, coastal flooding, cold and drought and all extreme weather https://sciasedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378019300378

According to the UNDRR report on drought today, anthropogenic climate change is expected to have a marked impact on drought, but that effect is often not detected today. https://undrr.org/publication/gar-special-report-drought-2021

“Our study highlights that from a long-term perspective (1851–2018), there are no generally consistent drought trends across Western Europe.” https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6719…

Prevent and respond to climate change [link]

It’s not the heat, it’s the humidity that kills us [link]

A new study points to microbial sources that produce methane, such as livestock, landfills, wetlands and more. https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2769/New-analysis-shows-microiotics-sources-fueling-rise-of-atmospheric-methane

A study of 700-million-year-old iron band formations suggests that changes in Earth’s orbit may have allowed complex life to emerge and flourish during the most extreme climates on Earth. experienced [link]

These rims in Redding, California suffered burns every 3 to 5 years until 1855. Natural fires and native burning practices were extinguished when European settlers arrived, until 1855. allow fuel to reach dangerous levels and ignite in forest fires. https://vox.com/21507802/wildfire-2020-california-indigene-native-american-indian-controlled-burn-fire

A “profound” cooling trend of ~1°C swept across Antarctica (1979-2018). The cooling extended over most of the continent and into the Southern Ocean. The Madden-Julian Oscillating Force is “likely to accelerate” cooling in the coming decades. https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/7/26/eabf9903.full

Earth has a ‘heartbeat’ 27.5 million years, but we don’t know what causes it [link]

Hypothetical sea cliffs are collapsing? [link]

Southward multipolar displacement of the southern boundary of the Antarctic Circuit Current off East Antarctica [link]

“Influence of Central American Externals on Global Climate” 1 / https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020AV000343#.YMI6Ugjsb_U.twitter

Data-driven reconstruction reveals large-scale ocean circulation control above coastal sea level’ https://nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01046-1…

The 8th century record for Atlantic hurricanes [link]

Miracle mosquito hack helps reduce dengue fever by 77% [link]

Aggregate natural disasters in Australia: Historical analysis [link]

Policy and technology

Carbon removal technologies can make deep decarbonization in the power sector more affordable and change investment decisions Summary: https://esca.epri.com/pdf/Back-Pocket-Insights/EPRI-CDR-Impacts.pdf Full manuscript: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23554-6

Outline the role of socioeconomic pathways in shaping future urban heat-related challenges. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133941

Combine socio-economic and climate projections to assess heat risk. [link]

Bjorn Lomborg: Climate change and deaths from extreme heat and cold. Global warming could help save 100,000 lives a year from extreme cold. [link]

How South America is paying for Europe’s ‘green’ biomass energy [link]

Congressional Testimony from Roger Pielke Jr [link]

“Strengthen back? Urban comparison and competition #resilience frames in the context of the United States and Latin America” [link]

Wildfires, floods and other crises are impacted by climate, but we can do more to save lives and properties by focusing on urgent real-life changes on the ground. [link]

Carbon capture is not economically viable. And Chevron wasted $3 billion figuring that out. [link]

How markets adapt to climate change [link]

South Asia at risk of water security as warming affects Himalayas [link]

California is planning to close its last nuclear plant soon. From a carbon-free electricity standpoint, this is equivalent to destroying every wind turbine in the state, or half of our solar panels. https://thebreakthrough.org/blog/treadmill

Sustainable agriculture and wastewater use can ensure water security in India [link]

Economic impact and reliability of grid-scale storage in a high penetration renewable energy system [link]

The results show a clear downward trend in both human and economic vulnerabilities, with global average mortality and economic losses falling by 6.5 and almost 5 times, respectively, since 1980. -1989 to 2007–2016 [link]

“In most parts of the United States, switching from natural gas to electric heat pumps will increase household heating bills and increase damage from carbon dioxide (CO2) and other pollutants.” . https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acs.est.0c02705…

Remaining climate is a useful farce [link]

Is hydrogen the new oil? [link]

California is edging closer to a major – & underrated – hurdle in its quest to generate 60% of the state’s electricity from renewables, as an oversupply of solar power during times of sunshine depletes Weak economic situation to build more factories: https://technologyreview.com/2021/07/14/1028461/solar-value-deflation-california-climate-change/

The @Energy The department is targeting vastly cheaper energy storage solutions for “long duration” (day, week) applications. [link]

An Insight into Texas Power Outages [link]

Ecological Forest Pruning and Regulatory Burns Significant reduction in premiums https://nature.org/en-us/newsroom/ca-wildfire-resilience-insurance/…

Poor energy is bad for health [link]

Impressive summary of the California wildfires [link]

Waste from solar panels will make the electricity produced by solar panels *4 times more expensive* than experts predicted This is why everything they say about solar energy is wrong https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/why-everything-they-said-about-solar

Why is CO2 removal not equal to and opposite of emissions reduction | https://j.mp/3j3kqbL

The US uses 30-40% of its ethanol supply from corn, which is only ~7% of US transportation fuel. It’s the use of a lot of land to produce a relatively small amount of energy. https://ers.usda.gov/data-products/us-bioenergy-stosystem/

Richard Tol: The economic impact of weather and climate https://judithcurry.com/2021/07/23/week-in-review-science-edition-128/

Agriculture alone will put us in excess of 1.5 degrees Celsius and maybe even 2 degrees Celsius. This is an area that is difficult to separate, but today there are solutions (higher productivity, reduced quality) waste, better practices, less meat/meat substitutes). [link]

Why doesn’t the US reprocess nuclear fuel? [link]

A new estimate shows that a third of global emissions come from the food system. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac018e

Solar power’s land grab is difficult: environmentalists [link]

About science and scientists

There is no science to be solved [link]

Micro-aggressions end up being called a speculative bunch of nonsense [link]

A new facet of uncertainty: how does the noise generated by researchers’ decisions undermine the credibility of science? [link] This is REALLY interesting

Rare events need different methods [link[

The neuroscience of intellectual openness [link]

Suppressing the ivermectin debate: https://taibbi.substack.com/p/why-has-ivermectin-become-a-dirty-7bd

A researcher’s war on obesity and education [link]

Scientific practice – an essay by the editors of New Atlantis [link]

The end of reductionism may be premature. or not [link]

Campus of the People’s Republic of China [link]

On the danger of politicizing science, by a Soviet scientist. [link]





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