The French president and French liberal candidate La Republique en Marche (LREM), successor to Emmanuel Macron, wave to supporters during a one-day campaign visit in the Hauts-de-France region, in Carvin , northern France, on April 11, 2022.
BENOIT TESIER / POOL / AFP via Getty Images
hide captions
switch captions
BENOIT TESIER / POOL / AFP via Getty Images
The French president and French liberal candidate La Republique en Marche (LREM), successor to Emmanuel Macron, wave to supporters during a one-day campaign visit in the Hauts-de-France region, in Carvin , northern France, on April 11, 2022.
BENOIT TESIER / POOL / AFP via Getty Images
French President Emmanuel Macron, who had barely campaigned ahead of the first round of voting, hit the campaign trail early Monday morning after Sunday’s results showed he led rival Marine Le Pen by just five points. percent, with 27.6% of the vote. Macron has two weeks to convince the French to give him another term, instead of betting the country’s future on what many see as Le Pen’s radical vision.
Macron’s first stop is the northern town of Denain, which has the distinction of being the poorest municipality in France. Television footage showed the president in his shirt sleeve, talking and meeting people in France’s formerly devastated coal mining region.
One man begged Macron: “Don’t forget about us in and out of France. Denain voted for Le Pen 41% in the first round, compared with 17% for Macron.
Macron and Le Pen faced each other in childbirth five years ago and Macron beat her with ease, garnering 66% of the vote. But much has changed since 2017.
While Macron is still widely expected to win the second round, the odds are much smaller, and analysts say this time Marine Le Pen has a real chance. This has a few causes. One is that the French constituency as a whole has shifted to the right.
Le Pen has expanded its support base, and more and more voters are choosing extremes. Main lines left and right have disappeared. The parties of Charles DeGaulle and Francois Mitterrand reached only 5% this time.
More than 50% of the votes in the first round over the weekend went to extremists. Some analysts say there are currently three voting blocs: center, far left and far right. Others say that the right-left divide has disappeared and has been replaced by a new paradigm, the globalist and the sovereign.
On a personal level, Le Pen has softened his image and detoxified his party to appear more orthodox. It worked in part because another far-right candidate, Eric Zemmour, was the one to incite anti-immigrant sentiment, while Le Pen stuck with economic issues like purchasing power. It paid off, said 26-year-old supporter David, who did not want to give his last name.
French far-right Rassemblement National (RN) presidential candidate Marine Le Pen poses with a supporter holding a French flag during a visit to a grain farm as part of the campaign for the second round of the election. French presidential election, on April 11, 2022 in Soucy, Burgundy.
EMMANUEL DUNAND / AFP via Getty Images
hide captions
switch captions
EMMANUEL DUNAND / AFP via Getty Images
French far-right Rassemblement National (RN) presidential candidate Marine Le Pen poses with a supporter holding a French flag during a visit to a grain farm as part of the campaign for the second round of the election. French presidential election, on April 11, 2022 in Soucy, Burgundy.
EMMANUEL DUNAND / AFP via Getty Images
“She campaigned on the ground, went to the market, met people all over France,” he said. “This is why she got so many votes in the first round. And this is why she will win in two weeks.”
Macron is no longer the politically misguided man he was five years ago. On the contrary, in many parts of the country there was deep resentment towards him. Those on the left who voted for him feel betrayed, and he is often seen as an arrogant, elitist, pro-rich policy. “Anyone but Macron” has become a mantra for some.
Le Pen can be expected to appeal to voters of far-right candidate Zemmour; he finished the race in fourth place with 7% of the vote. Macron, meanwhile, doesn’t have many voters to reach.
Left-wing firefighter Jean Luc Melenchon, who came in third, just behind Le Pen, told supporters that “not a single vote could go to Madame Le Pen.” However, he does not endorse Macron. Both Macron and Le Pen are now vying for their constituencies.
It is not far-fetched to imagine Melenchon voters likely to support Le Pen. Far-left and far-right French have similar socioeconomic backgrounds – pro-working class and detest a globalized capitalist system that they see as favoring elites and corporations.
Pollster Brice Teinturier told France 2 News that the battle between Macron and Le Pen is really a battle of two distinct visions of France.
“We have France of people who are doing well, they are confident that they have a good salary and they are voting massively for Macron,” he said. “There’s another France with low wages, worried about their future. And they barely have enough to live on. They vote for Le Pen.”
Martin Quencez, deputy director of the Paris office of the German Marshall Fund, said the choice of French voters on April 24 would have profound consequences in France and on the world stage.
The vision – especially in foreign policy – that Marine Le Pen promotes is radically different from the vision that Emmanuel Macron advocates.
Quencez said that although Le Pen is trying to normalize her image and cut some of the most controversial taglines from her show, the details of her background haven’t really changed much. . “It is still about withdrawing from NATO’s military command, and rethinking France’s partnership with the EU, with the US and with Russia.”
Macron will deliver that message over the next two weeks: how a vote for Le Pen will be a vote that takes France in a dangerous new direction. A Macron campaign ad shows the face of Le Pen (Russian President Vladimir) Putin, with a quote from Le Pen speaking to a journalist on March 31. “Can Putin become allies of the West again?” asked the reporter.
“Of course,” said Le Pen.
