‘On the Observational Database, the Climate Crisis … is not yet evident’ – Are you interested in that?
New study: ‘On the basis of observational data, the climate crisis … is still unclear’ – Published in the European Physics Journal Plus
Published in the European Physics Journal Plus – January 13, 2022: “The analysis was then extended to a number of global response indices to extreme meteorological events, namely natural disasters, floods, droughts, ecosystem productivity and yields of four categories. major crops (maize, rice, soybean and wheat). None of the reaction indicators shows a clear positive trend of extreme events. In conclusion, on the basis of observational data, the climate crisis that, according to many sources, we are experiencing today, has not yet been clearly demonstrated.
Via: administrators – Total climate inventory February 10, 2022 12:57 ONLY
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-02243-9
Critical assessment of trends in extreme events during global warming
European Physics Magazine Plus episode 137Number of articles: 112 (2002)
Critical assessment of trends in extreme events during global warming
Excerpt:
abstract
This article reviews recent bibliography of time series of several extreme weather events and related response indices to understand whether an increase in intensity and/or frequency could be detected. Are not. The strongest global changes in climate extremes are found in annual values of heat waves (number of days, maximum duration and cumulative heat), while global trends in wave intensity heat is insignificant. Daily rainfall intensity and frequency of extreme rain are constant in the main part of the weather stations. Trend analysis of the time series of tropical cyclones reveals a significant time invariance, and the same is true for tornadoes in the United States. At the same time, the impact of warming on surface wind speeds remains unclear. The analysis was then extended to several global response indices to extreme meteorological events, namely natural disasters, floods, droughts, ecosystem productivity and yields of the four categories. major crops (maize, rice, soybean and wheat). None of the reaction indicators shows a clear positive trend of extreme events. The conclusion is based on observational data that the climate crisis, which, according to many sources, we are experiencing today, remains unclear. However, it is extremely important to identify mitigation and adaptation strategies that take into account current trends.
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To date, global observations have not shown any significant trends in both the quantity and the energy accumulated by the storms, as shown in Fig. first and as stated in some specific articles [13] for the United States, which
Figure 1 Long-term trends in disaster damage, often attributed to increases in wealth and population, have so far not been attributed to climate change, but so far it has not been possible to rule out that change Climate may play a role.
Historical trends of Tropical Cyclone frequency (above) and cumulative energy (above)[16]; updated data from http://climatlas.com/tropical/)Full size image
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Particular attention should be paid to the IPCC statement reporting a dramatic increase in the frequency and activity of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic. For more information on this matter, NOAA [17] analyzed much longer time series (>100 years) of Atlantic hurricane activity.
Existing records of past Atlantic tropical storms or hurricane numbers (from 1878 to present) actually show a marked upward trend; however, the density of reports of Atlantic shipping was relatively low during the first decades of this period: if the storms of the modern era (after 1965) were hypothesized to have occurred in During those decades, a significant number of hurricanes would probably have not been observed by the naval observation network.
Thus, after adjusting the time series to account for a smaller past observability, only a nominally positive upward trend of tropical cyclones from 1878 to 2006. Statistical tests indicate that this trend is not significantly different from zero.
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Furthermore, Landsea et al. [18] Note that the increasing trend in Atlantic tropical cyclone numbers is almost entirely due to an increase in short-lived (<2 days) hurricanes, most likely missed in the early part of the year. records, as they will have less chance than a chance encounter with ship traffic.
If we look at hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, instead of all tropical cyclones, the result is similar: the number of hurricanes reported in the 1860s and 1880s is similar to the date now and again there have been no significant positive trends since then. The evidence for an uptrend was even weaker for hurricanes that made landfall on the US coast, suggesting a slightly negative trend starting in the 1900s or late 1800s.
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With increased coverage of Doppler radar, population growth, and increased attention to tornado reports, there has been an increase in the number of tornado reports in recent decades. This can create a false appearance of an increasing frequency of tornadoes.
However, by referring to the time series shown in Fig. 3 [24], we find that the increase in the number of tornadoes since 1950 is almost entirely due to weak events (EF0-EF1 on the Advanced Fujita scale), previous tornadoes in many fields compounds have gone out of sight and are easier to identify today thanks to a variety of systems ranging from cell phone cameras to satellites and Doppler radars. In contrast, strong-to-severe tornadoes (types EF-3 to EF-5 on the Advanced Fujita scale), likely also reported before the Doppler radar era, did not increase over time.
While the increase in frequency and persistence of heatwaves can be easily explained by rising global temperatures, the observed increase in tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic, as well as there are reasons that are not clear according to the IPCC statement [6], seems to be a local phenomenon and is essentially due to better reporting supported by NOAA and as we will see more clearly in the paragraph dedicated to this type of phenomenon. In other regions of the planet, a decrease in similar phenomena was observed, and in other regions no trends were observed, essentially putting global assessments of a remarkable constancy. told over time.
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Fear of a climate emergency, not supported by data, means changing priorities with negative impacts that could harm our ability to face future challenges. us, wasting natural and human resources in a difficult economic context, is even more negative after the COVID emergency.
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