With Baylor’s upset win over 5th Oklahoma State in the Big 12, the playoff hopes of 6th college football team Notre Dame went a step further.
Fighting Irish currently sits in sixth, while No. 4 Cincinnati faces No. 21 Houston in hopes of winning the American Athletic Conference and cementing its place in the eyes of the playoff committee while Notre Dame waits and track from home. However, that is far from a guaranteed win for the Bearcats.
So, Can Notre Dame still be a CFP? Sporting News take a look.
Can Notre Dame Make CFP Loss Cincinnati?
Notre Dame on the weekend ranked sixth in the ranking. That means Fighting Irish will need some help from their front teams to move forward as they won’t be playing a game.
The Fighting Irish secured a wish with Oklahoma State No. 5 losing to Baylor No. 9, eliminating one of the teams leading them in the CFP chase.
What happens then if Cincinnati loses? For all intents and purposes, that removes the Bearcats from the conversation. A group of Five has never made it to the knockout stages, and the committee may be less forgiving of a Cincinnati team that loses and doesn’t win a convention championship.
That then leaves a vacancy for Notre Dame which, at this point, looks like Fighting Irish will lose. They are leading 7th Ohio State, also not playing on Saturday. If any of the top three teams win, they’ll be in No. 1 Georgia almost certain to make it to the playoffs even if they lose to Team 3 Alabama. And even if the Bulldogs beat the Crimson Tide and the committee chose to send the two-match Alabama champion undefeated into the playoffs, that would still leave an open slot for the fourth team.
CFP scenarios: Can Alabama make it through the playoffs with a defeat to Georgia?
So what teams will be available to fill that void? Not many options outside of Notre Dame. Number 10 Oregon was drummed by No. 17 Utah in the Pac-12 Championship, putting any chance of the Pac-12 hitting CFP out of the picture. Baylor may leap up five steps, but it’s still a long way to go.
Can the Commission reconsider Ohio State’s double loss versus one loss at Notre Dame? President Gary Barta previously said that when the final rankings are released, they do not consider the abilities of the coach or the player when making the rankings, and they will when deciding the four teams to reach the CFP. On Monday, the day before the rankings were announced, it was revealed that Brian Kelly is leaving South Bend, Indiana, for Baton Rouge, Louisiana, for LSU vacancies.
THAN: Does the US hope Notre Dame has a chance for Brian Kelly to play CFP?
However, ESPN’s Heather Dinich reports that the committee no longer considers a change of coach a factor since Marcus Freeman took over and retained most of the staff.
Committee Chairman Gary Barta told me earlier today that the coaching situation at the ND has become a factor not in the Irishman’s assessment. They talked about it last night, and the continuity of being there with Freeman and employee retention makes it a hot topic of discussion.
– Heather Dinich (@CFBHather) December 4, 2021
Can the committee dance Buckeyes over Fighting Irish? It looks very unlikely, especially given Barta’s latest take on the Notre Dame coaching situation.
In the end, should Cincinnati lose, there will be a surge of confidence in South Bend that their team can be determined for a second consecutive CFP trip.
Can Notre Dame win the CFP with Cincinnati?
This scenario seems more unlikely for the Fighting Irish.
Should Cincinnati win, their head-to-head advantage over the Bearcats, not to mention Cincinnati’s two wins over Notre Dame means that the Fighting Irish will certainly not be able to overtake Cincinnati.
To get in, Notre Dame will have to see Michigan lose to Iowa No. 13 and Alabama to Georgia, potentially a loss. Once again, Georgia won all but one spot in the CFP regardless of the outcome in the SEC Championship Game. Iowa is too far out of the playoff picture to be considered for a spot, even if it wins the Big Ten.
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In that situation, the only two people guaranteed a spot were Georgia and Cincinnati, creating a debate between Baylor two loss, Big 12 champion, Alabama two loss, Notre Dame one loss, Michigan two loss and Ohio State two lose. . Notre Dame seems like a reasonable bet for one of the other two spots, but that’s far from guaranteed.
A Cincinnati win doesn’t completely eliminate Notre Dame’s playoff chances, but it does mean a lot will have to go right for the Fighting Irish to have a chance.
