La Niña underway, above-average Atlantic temperatures set the stage for busy season ahead
May 24, 2022
Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, is predicting above-average hurricane activity this year – which would make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. NOAA’s forecast for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and a 25% chance of a near-normal season. 10% chance lower than normal. Season.
For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA forecasts a possible 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph). or more), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with 70% confidence.
“Preparing early and understanding your risks is key to being storm resilient and climate ready,” said Commerce Secretary Gina M. Raimondo. “During hurricane season, NOAA experts will work around the clock to provide accurate and early warnings and forecasts that communities in the storm’s path can rely on for up-to-date information. .”
The predicted increase in activity this hurricane season is due to a number of climatic factors, including La Niña that is likely to persist during hurricane season, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean Seas, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and intensification of the West African monsoon. The strengthening West African Monsoon supports stronger African Easter Waves, producing many of the strongest and longest-lasting storms of most seasons. The way in which climate change affects the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones is an area of ongoing research by NOAA scientists.
“As we reflect on another potentially busy hurricane season, past hurricanes – such as Superstorm Sandy, which devastated the New York metro area ten years ago – remind us that the effects of a hurricane can be felt for many years,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph. “Since Sandy, NOAA forecast accuracy has continued to improve, allowing us to better predict the impact of major hurricanes on lives and livelihoods.”
Additionally, NOAA has enhanced the following products and services during this hurricane season:
“Hurricane Ida spanned nine states, demonstrating that anyone can be in the direct path of a hurricane and be at risk from the remnants of a hurricane system,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell. “It is important that people understand their risks and take proactive steps to get ready now by visiting Ready.gov and Listo.gov for preparation tips and by downloading the App. FEMA to ensure that you are receiving emergency alerts in real time.”
NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and not a forecast for inland arrivals. In addition to the Atlantic seasonal outlook, NOAA has also issued a seasonal hurricane outlook for Eastern pacific and Central Pacific storm basin. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update its Atlantic 2022 seasonal outlook in early August, just before the season’s historic peak.
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