NOAA and NASA’s recent sea level rise claims are both wet – Data doesn’t support that – Is it acceptable?

Are from “Deja vu all over again“The department makes this request, we keep beating again and again.

You may have noticed that dozens of media are parroting a news release from NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and other federal agencies. Titles such as Sea levels will rise by one foot along US coastlines by 2050, government report shows and Seas could rise as much as a foot by 2050, posing ‘a clear and present risk’ to US was popular in the media over the past week.

Report dated February 15, titled Global and regional sea level rise scenarios for the USconcluded that sea levels along the coasts of the United States would increase by an average of 10 to 12 inches above current levels by 2050.

The report provides a forecast for sea level rise up to 2150 and also provides short-term projections for the next 30 years.

But when you examine historical sea level data and analyze trends, this report falls short of the forecasts they claim.

inside Press Releasethey say:

This report supports previous research and confirms what we’ve known for a long time: Sea levels are continuing to rise at an alarming rate, endangering communities around the world. Science is indisputable and urgent action is needed to mitigate a climate crisis that is well underway,” said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson.

NASA is steadfast in its commitment to protecting our home planet by expanding our monitoring capabilities and continuing to ensure our climate data is not only accessible but understandable.

[The] “Science is indisputable…” Riiight. Perhaps only in the mind of a government employee like Bill Nelson, but current scientific disputes are the bedrock of the advancement of scientific knowledge.

The problem is that projections of significant, even catastrophic sea-level rise have been made before, and they never happened. The most famous sea level statement comes from a United Nations (UN) official, published in the Associated Press.

Like we were pointed out in WUWT before, in 1989, a senior United Nations environment official stated, “entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if global warming trends were not reversed.” back to the year 2000.” Obviously, those countries are still there.

In addition, in 2005, the United Nations declared, “Rising sea levels…will create up to 50 million environmental refugees by the end of the decade.”

Both of these predictions, based entirely on computer model predictions similar to those most recently reported last week, have failed to materialize. Projections about refugees have become an embarrassment to the UN, it tried to “disappear” the claim. Of course, we were up there and showed the world how bad the UN was in its attempt to disappear.

So with such a record, why should we believe the latest claims about sea level rise over the next 30 years? We shouldn’t, and there are two good science-based reasons not to put too much faith in the prediction.

Firstly, the data we have to date do not support the claim when you consider the observed sea level trends to date. The majority of the areas likely to be affected by sea level rise are in the Northeast United States. Watch this animation in Figure 1 cycle through some of the Northeast cities:

Second, to achieve the predicted 1-foot rise, sea level rise would have to accelerate compared to what has been observed in the data to date. And so far, there is little evidence of that.

As we have documented many times on WUWT, global sea levels have risen at a relatively steady rate of about one foot per century since at least the mid-1800s. Coastal cities, such as New York City, has managed sea level rise well. As shown in Figure 2, New York shows a steady increase since 1856 with no apparent acceleration.

In NOAA’s own words about Tides and currents The website provides Figure 2 above they say this about the New York City data:

Relative sea level trend is 2.88 mm/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.09 mm/year based on monthly mean sea level data from 1856 to 2020, equivalent with a change of 0.94 feet over 100 years.

NOAA tidal data doesn’t even support the claims in their most recent report. The data shows that it will take 100 years, not 30, to reach an upward footing.

Recent sea level rise has had little acceleration. Our own Willis Eschenbach showed Again and Again how without speedup in data. Even if scientists claim they found itWillis points out that it’s nothing more than an artifact of the satellite dataset transformation.

But, playing the Devil’s advocate, let’s assume that all the modest acceleration of sea level rise is due entirely to human-caused global warming, which equates to an acceleration of just 0.3 inches. sea ​​level per decade compared to the existing 1.2 inches. Sea level rise per decade is measured from historical data.

At 1.5 inches per decade, that’s 3 decades x 1.5 inches / decade = 4.5 inches

This number is not too far from the 12-inch figure that has been forecast for the next 30 years.

With a track record of predictions, observational data, and observed data deviations from climate model predictions, there is no “alarming” crisis in sea level rise. and cities like New York will continue to administer it as they have for more than 150 years.

No need to worry, the data tells you so.