Pakistan’s parliament has chosen Shehbaz Sharif as the country’s new prime minister, just days after his predecessor Imran Khan was ousted in a vote of no confidence.
Aamir Qureshi | AFP | beautiful pictures
Pakistan has a new prime minister – and this could bode well for the South Asian nation’s return to a healthier economy and ties with its traditional backer, the US, as well as its arch-rival India.
On Monday, Pakistan’s Parliament selected Shehbaz Sharif as the country’s new prime minister, just days after his predecessor. Imran Khan was ousted in a vote of no confidence.
In what one observer has called the “assertion of democracy,” the move is by no means inevitable in a country where no prime minister has served a full term.
Surprised observers, the all-powerful Pakistani army, which has ruled the country for decades by orchestrating coups, remains in barracks.
A decisive judicial intervention was the next surprise. Pakistan’s Supreme Court has ruled that Imran Khan’s government faces a vote of no confidence that it has try to block. Khan ultimately failed in a rescheduled vote of confidence in the early hours of Sunday and was sacked.
What will Sharif do?
In his first speech, 70-year-old Sharif said he intends to reinvent Pakistan as a “paradise” for investments, while also announcing a minimum wage increase.
Iqbal Singh Sevea, director of the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore, told CNBC that the road ahead for Sharif has not been easy.
“He inherits an economy that is struggling due to current account deficits and inflation. He will need to improve the capacity of the state to accumulate revenue through taxes and increased investment, especially in the field of export,” said the associate professor.
The dream for Pakistan is that they can export to China. The reality for Pakistan is that they export to America and Europe.
James Schwemlein
Senior Director, Albright Stonebridge Group
Pakistan is on its The 23rd bailout from the IMF. The country’s economy is under pressure from rising inflation, at more than 10% this yearamid soaring prices of crude oil and other commodities following the war in Ukraine.
“In his view, Pakistan is likely to negotiate another loan with the IMF and will need to commit to structural reforms and generate more tax revenue,” said Sevea. “The task is all the more difficult because he will need to do this without seemingly cutting benefits and going against welfare policies.”
According to James Schwemlein, senior director of Washington-based Albright Stonebridge Group, Sharif is a worldwide known figure who has pointed to his reputation as a competent executive.
He said: “Shehbaz Sharif runs Pakistan’s largest province, Punjab. .
India: Improving relations?
In particular, India will pay attention to the new administration.
Former Indian foreign minister Shashank told CNBC that the way events unfolded in Pakistan are likely to provide an opportunity for New Delhi to improve relations with the neighboring country.
Pakistan “affirms democracy”” would provide an “opportunity to move forward in bilateral relations”, he said.
“But the test will be a signal from the Sharif government and its almighty army,” Shashank added. “The Pakistani military is very keen to build relations with the US,” he said.
US: Repairing relationships
The new government’s top priority is to repair ties with Washington, analysts say.
Khan used his repeated accusations of a US plot to oust him from power to block a vote of no confidence against his government. He stated that the United States was very upset by the perception that Pakistan under his command had drawn closer to Russia and China.
Khan has left the traditional pro-American stance to pursue a markedly different foreign policy and embrace China’s Belt and Road projects, Schwemlein told CNBC’s Asian Squawk Box.
He told CNBC on Monday that his antagonism with the US is “dangerous” for Pakistan: “The dream for Pakistan is that they can export to China. The reality for Pakistan is that they export to China. America and Europe.”
Pakistan’s economic wealth is largely tied to maintaining positive relations with the West but Khan “acted against it,“ Schwemlein said.
It is likely that the new Sharif government will align itself more closely with the US
China: Strategic Relations
According to Shibani Mehta, research analyst at Carnegie India, Pakistan has cultivated ties with both the US and China as a way to overcome the security dilemma and maintain the balance of power with India. Degree.
“Because of its history with the US and China, Pakistan needs them more than they need,” Mehta said. “The United States has shown little interest in getting involved in regional disputes,” she said.
The change in Pakistan’s relationship with either or both will depend on the strategic goals of Washington and Beijing.
Shibani Mehta
Research Analyst, Carnegie India
“A change in Pakistan’s relationship with either side will depend on the strategic goals of Washington and Beijing,” she added.
But Sevea points out that no matter who comes to power, the military will continue to have an important voice in Pakistan’s foreign policy.
“Given the concerns within the military about Imran Khan’s criticisms of Pakistan’s relationship with the US and the army chief’s assertions about the importance of the relationship with the US, it is very likely that Sharif will try to trying to get back to a balance between the two,” he said.
