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Names to watch as Xi prepares for a leadership change


China’s top leadership team around President Xi Jinping will change this month at a congress that will span twice a decade. Pictured is the last such congress in 2017, with Mr. Xi at the center.

Nicolas Asfouri | Afp | beautiful pictures

BEIJING – China is ready to reshuffle top officials around the President Xi Jinping at a highly anticipated general meeting this month.

The ruling Communist Party of China is scheduled to open its 20th National Congress – held every five years – on October 16.

About a week later, the name of the new team will be announced.

The composition of the group will reflect the political wobble that Xi and his associates have, and the extent of the president’s support for ideas – such as a preference for more state control in the economy. economic.

Mr. Xi, 69, is expected to further consolidate his power after leading the party for 10 years. This month’s congress is expected to pave the way for him to stay for an unprecedented third five-year term.

Chinese politics has always been hazy, but there doesn’t seem to be any light coming out of this black box.

Scott Kennedy

Center for Strategic and International Studies

However, forecasts about which officials will step down or take on new roles remains speculative.

Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and trustee chair of Chinese economics and business at the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said: .

“Therefore, there is much less speculation now than in previous leadership transitions,” he said.

“The irony of this mystery is that Chinese officials regularly lecture foreigners about how little they understand China,” Kennedy said. “Part of the problem is that there is very little information that is actually given to us.”

Here’s what’s publicly known – and some of the names analysts are watching for the upcoming reshuffle:

Political structure

This month’s congress decides which officials will become leaders of the ruling Communist Party of China.

Some 2,300 party deputies will gather in Beijing to choose a new central committee – consisting of about 200 full members.

That committee then defines the core leadership – the Politburo and its standing committee.

The current Politburo, or political office, has 25 members, including Liu He. Liu is at the forefront of trade negotiations with the US in 2020 and 2021. In China, he heads the central government’s financial stability committee.

However, Liu is not on the Politburo standing committee, the highest authority. It currently has seven members – including Xi and Premier Li Keqiang.

Mr. Xi holds three key positions: General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and President of China.

He is expected to retain the first two titles at this year’s party congress. State posts such as president and prime minister will not be confirmed until the next annual meeting of the Chinese government, usually held in March.

Economic Policy: Who will replace Premier Li?

One of the most closely watched changes in the political reshuffle is the future of Premier Li Keqiang, this year turns 67 years old.

While top-level economic policy in China is largely set by Politburo members, Li remains the official face and implementation leader as prime minister and head of the State Council. China’s top governing body.

JPMorgan analysts say this year marks the last time he will serve as prime minister, a position he has held since 2013. However, he is likely to remain a standing committee member, JPMorgan analysts said. said, pointing to precedent at the 15th party congress.

Explaining the Economic Legacy of the Chinese Communist Party

Over the past decade, Li has regularly met with foreign businesses to promote investment in China. Since the pandemic began, he has maintained tax and fee cuts for businesses instead of offering consumption vouchers. Li studied economics at Peking University.

All of China’s modern premiers, except the first, previously served as vice premiers, JPMorgan analysts said.

The current deputy prime ministers are Han Zheng, Hu Chunhua, Liu He and Sun Chunlan – the only woman in the Politburo.

“Whoever becomes prime minister really sends a signal about Xi Jinping’s top needs, or his political and policy considerations.” Brookings Senior Member Cheng Li said Tuesday at a talk organized by think tank.

He named four people in the Politburo who could join or stay on the standing committee, and have a chance to replace Li Keqiang as prime minister.

  • Han Zheng – Han is a member of Committee. Becoming prime minister would reflect “the continuity of policy”, Brookings’ Li said.
  • Hu Chunhua – Hu is closely related to Mr. Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao. His promotion would signal “leadership unity” with Mr. Xi appointing people from outside his own faction, Li said.
  • Liu He – Liu studied at Harvard Kennedy School in the 1990s. More recently, he led the Chinese delegation in trade negotiations with the US and spoke several times with Finance Minister Janet Yellen. According to Li, if Liu becomes the top, it is his “international popularity”.
  • Wang Yang – Wang is a member of the standing committee and served as deputy prime minister from 2013 to 2018. He is known to be market-oriented, and choosing him as prime minister would reflect a “dramatic policy shift”, Li said.

Among those loyal to Xi…

Analysts at the Center for China Analysis of the Asian Institute of Social Policy pose another scenario in which Mr. Xi’s patron Li Qiang, Shanghai Municipal Party Secretary and Politburo member, could become prime minister.

Other staunch allies of Xi that analysts have named include:

  • Ding Xuexiang – Politburo member and “basically Xi’s Chief of Staff, as well as in charge of his personal security, meaning he is among Xi’s closest confidants”, Asia Society report said.
  • Chen Min’er – Politburo member and party secretary of Chongqing city, a job he got after Mr. Xi “suddenly removed” his previous position as party secretary, Asia Society pointed out.
  • Huang Kunming, a Politburo member and head of China’s propaganda department, who has worked closely with Xi in Fujian and Zhejiang provinces, the report said.

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“If Wang Yi replaces Yang Jiechi in the Politburo as the highest-ranking official overseeing foreign policy, one would expect tougher foreign policy to continue,” said Tony Saich, professor professor at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, said in a September article.

The publicity section of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment sent in one weeklong Chinese holiday.

All eyes are on Xi’s successor

For many China watchers, the bigger question is not how the 69-year-old Xi will consolidate power, but who could be his successor and how he will prepare his staff in the future. the coming years.

Under Mr. Xi, China’s bureaucracy has become less autonomous and more personal to him – especially because there is little control of power, said Yuen Yuen Ang, an associate professor of science politics at the University of Michigan, wrote in the Journal of Democracy in July.

The threat to the Chinese Communist Party’s hold on power, she said, would be succession wars due to Mr. Xi’s individualistic rule.

Under a “best-case scenario,” China would be able to remain stable under Xi’s rule until 2035, she said.

In the “worst case scenario,” Ang said, “a sudden vacuum could lead to a violent usurpation of power.”

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