Moderna says Covid is entering the circulating phase, but a vaccine will be needed every year

Senior executives at Moderna on Thursday said Covid-19 was moving from a pandemic phase to an endemic phase in some parts of the world, with regions in the Northern Hemisphere hoping to step in. relatively stable period.

Moderna Chief Medical Officer Paul Burton told analysts on a call Thursday morning after the company reported: “We believe we are moving into an endemic phase marked by a period of stability.” of cases, hospitalizations and deaths. fourth quarter earnings.

North America, Europe, much of Asia, and much of Africa are located in the Northern Hemisphere. However, Burton said Moderna is closely monitoring the trajectory of the virus in the Southern Hemisphere, including major countries like Brazil and South Africa, as winter approaches.

Burton said Covid will continue to circulate during the circulating phase but at a more static and predictable rate. It will likely follow the same seasonal patterns as other respiratory viruses, such as the flu, he said. However, Burton warned people will still get sick and die with Covid even if the virus becomes endemic. He noted that other endemic coronaviruses cause 340,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths annually in people over 65, citing data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Moderna’s CEO, Stephane Bancel, told CNBC on Thursday that although Covid is entering the circulating phase in some parts of the world, people will need another boost in the fall. This is especially true for people over 50 and those at high risk due to underlying health conditions, he said.

“I get my flu shot every year, it’s not that I’m worried about dying or being hospitalized – I don’t want to get sick,” Bancel said. During Thursday’s earnings call, Bancel said he expects Covid shots to play a similar role in the future as the virus becomes seasonal.

“Some countries like the UK and others want to secure supply because they believe very deeply that the endemic market will need boosters every year,” Bancel said.

Moderna on Thursday announced that it is developing a booster vaccine that targets omicrons and other variants such as delta. Burton said the current enhancer protects against hospitalizations from delta and to a lesser extent from omicrons. However, he said the effectiveness of the vaccine diminishes over time.

“We found protection to wane over time against hospitalization for infection, and this is consistent with the profound immune avoidance that we know is the case with omicrons,” says Burton. Due to weakened immunity, an enhancer that targets both the omicron and delta variants will be needed by 2022, he said.

“This is because delta, as we know it, is associated with strong pathogenicity, and the omicron as we have seen due to its transmissibility and infectivity is also associated with significant morbidity. and stress on the health care system through the majority of cases,” Burton said. “Protection against both delta and omicron may also be needed in the next round of vaccination.”

Burton said the burden of disease and death has dropped from its peak during the first wave of infections, when no one had immunity to the virus.

“With each subsequent wave in mid-2021 for delta and late 2021 and early 2022 for omicrons, the observed morbidity from these episodes tends to be less severe, certainly compared with the first wave. , as our immune systems are already more experienced in fighting off the SARS- – CoV-2-virus,” said Burton.

In the United States, Covid cases are down 90% from their peak in the omicron wave on Jan. 15. The US is reporting a seven-day average of about 80,000 new cases per day, according to a new report. data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. 1/10 pandemic record of more than 800,000 daily average cases.

Hospitalizations have also plummeted to about 60,000 Covid patients in US hospitals from a high of more than 159,000 on January 20, based on seven-day average data from the Department of Health and Human Services. born.

Worldwide, the number of Covid cases fell 21% and the number of new deaths fell 8% from the previous week, according to data from the World Health Organization. Infections are decreasing in every region except the Western Pacific. However, the number of new infections remains high, with 12 million people reported for the week ending February 20. More than 67,000 people have died from Covid worldwide in that week alone.