Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
Well, it seems the climate warningers have noticed that all their hysterical cries for carbon dioxide (CO2) did not have the desired effect. So they’re moving on to a new villain, methane (ONLY).4). Here’s Nature, once a serious scientific journal, laments that methane is “spiking” to new heights.
Figure 1. Page from Nature, original here.
Now, anyone who knows me knows what I did after seeing that — I went to get the data to see what was going on. We have data from several sources — state-of-the-art measurements and ice cores. The Nature paper only shows change since 1984, but I always start with a long overview to give context to the data. This is the change in atmospheric methane since 1750.
Figure 2. Changes in atmospheric methane since 1750. Ice core data to 1980, modern measurements from 1984 onwards.
Now, there are a few puzzles in this data. First, no one knows what caused the slow methane increase that started around 1985 and ended around 2005.
Next, no one knows why the increase started. From the Nature paper:
The rate of increase in methane emissions slowed down around the turn of the millennium, but began to increase rapidly and mysteriously around 2007. The spike has many researchers concerned that global warming is creating produces a feedback mechanism that causes more and more methane to be released, making it even more difficult to contain rising temperatures.
“Methane levels are rising dangerously fast,” said Euan Nisbet, an Earth scientist at Royal Holloway, University of London, in Egham, UK. Emissions, which appear to have increased rapidly over the past few years, are a major threat to the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5–2°C above pre-industrial temperatures, he said. of the world.
YES !! THE STUDENTS WORKED! DANGEROUS FAST GROWTH! FEEDBACK MECHANISM!
(In a glance, can I say how bored I am in front of “anxious” scientists and researchers? I would say, these people stay up all night looking for the right things to do. nervous and when they catch something, they try to convince us that we should all worry about it too… but I digress.)
In any case, how quickly did the methane level rise? To investigate that, here’s a chart of the 5 year “tracking trends”. This is the trend change of the previous five years compared to each record year.
Figure 3. Changes in the 5-year trend of increases in atmospheric methane.
Call me crazy, but I don’t see what the “anxiety researcher” describes as methane levels “Dangerously Rapid Development” … They grew only a third as fast as in 1985.
My conclusion?
I won’t worry until the trend starts to turn up somewhere around 1985 levels.
My best wishes to everyone, whether you’re nervous or not…
w.
MY USES: When you comment PLEASE quote exactly the words you are discussing. I can defend my word and I’m happy to do so. But I cannot defend your interpretation of my words.
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