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Essay by Eric Worrall
h/t Dr. Willie Soon; 12,900 years ago the North Atlantic Current failed, likely due to the emptiness of a giant glacial lake. This catastrophic lake break is thought to have disrupted ocean currents, leading to a sudden return to ice age conditions spanning more than a thousand years.
The glacial lake that caused this disaster is gone, but the remote possibility that global warming could trigger a new ice age is a preferred scenario for climate alarmists.
Article Published:
Inter-basin and inter-hemispheric impacts of a collapsed Atlantic Upturning Circulation
Bryam Orihuela-Pinto, Matthew H. Great Britain & Andréa S. Taschetto
Nature Climate change (2022) Quote this article
abstract
Climate projections suggest a weakening or collapse of the Atlantic Meridian Circulation (AMOC) under conditions of global warming, with evidence of an ongoing decline. This could have significant effects on heat transport in the Atlantic, the extent of sea ice in the Arctic, and the climate of the North Atlantic region. However, the potential for far-reaching effects, such as remote connectivity to adjacent watersheds and into the Southern Hemisphere, remains unclear. Here, using a global climate model, we show that the collapse of the AMOC could accelerate the Pacific trade winds and Walker circulation by leaving an excess of heat in the region. tropical South Atlantic. This tropical warming promotes abnormal atmospheric convection, leading to enhanced subsidence in the eastern Pacific Ocean and enhanced Walker circulation and trade winds. Further telecommunications connections include weakening of the Indian Ocean and South Atlantic subtropical peaks and deeper of the Amundsen Seabed. These findings have important implications for understanding the global climate response to ongoing increases in greenhouse gases.
Read more: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01380-y
Of course, all of these problems would go away if what was really happening was natural cyclical variation.
Evolution of the North Atlantic Meridian Cycle since 1980
March 2022
Nature Earth & Environment Assessment 3 (4)
DOIs:10.1038 / s43017-022-00263-2
Authors: , Laura Jackson, Arne Biastoch, Martha W. Buckley, Damien Desbruyères, Eleanor Frajka-Williams, Ben I. Moat, Jon Robson
abstract
The Atlantic meridian circulation (AMOC) is a major component of climate through its heat transport in the North Atlantic. Decaying changes in the AMOC, whether due to internal transformation or man-made impairment, thus have wide-ranging effects. In this Review, we synthesize our understanding of AMOC decay variability, gathering evidence from observations, ocean reanalysis, forcing patterns, and AMOC proxies. Since 1980, there is evidence of periods of strengthening and weakening, although the extent of change (5–25%) is uncertain. In the sub-North Atlantic, the AMOC strengthened until the mid-1990s and then weakened until the early 2010s, with some evidence of subsequent consolidation; these changes are probably related to buoyancy associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. In the subtropical region, there is some evidence of AMOC strengthening from 2001 to 2005 and strong evidence of weakening from 2005 to 2014. Large inter-annual variability and decline such as This complicates the detection of ongoing long-term trends, but does not rule out weakness associated with anthropogenic warming. Research priorities include developing robust and sustainable solutions for long-term AMOC monitoring, collaborative observation-modeling to improve the representation of North Atlantic processes, and ways better to distinguish human impairment from internal variation. The Atlantic meridian circulation (AMOC) has an important role in the climate system. This review records AMOC variability since 1980, showing periods of weakening and strengthening on the decimal scale that vary between subarctic and subtropical regions.
Laura has been writing about cyclical change for quite some time.
Recent slowdown in Atlantic upturn circulation as a rebound from previous strengthening
May 2016
Natural Geosciences 9 (7)
DOIs:10.1038 / ngeo2715
Authors: Laura Jackson, Kenneth Andrew Peterson, Christopher David Roberts, , Richard A. Woodabstract
The Atlantic Meridian Circulatory Circulation (AMOC) has weakened substantially over the past decade. Some impairment may have occurred over the past century, and global climate models predict further weakening in response to anthropogenic climate change. Such weakening could have a significant impact on surface climate. However, ocean model simulations based on historical conditions often see an upside-down until the mid-1990s, followed by a decrease. Therefore, it is not clear whether the decline observed over the past decade is part of a decadent transformation or persistent decline. Here, we examine a modern global ocean reanalysis product, GloSea5, which covers the years 1989 to 2015 and closely matches AMOC observations at 26.5°N, which records the year-to-year variability and decadence with unprecedented accuracy. The reanalysis data puts the ten-year observations from April 2004 to February 2014 – into a longer-term context and shows that the observed drop in the upside cycle is consistent with the post-recovery recovery. previous increase. We found that density anomalies spreading southward from the Labrador Sea were the most likely cause of these variations. We conclude that degeneracy variation may play an important role in the decline in AMOC observed over the past decade.
The reason I haven’t lost sleep over the North Atlantic scenario is the scale of disturbance that might be needed to cause such a collapse. The last collapse, 12,900 years ago, is believed to have occurred when the ice wall held Lake Agassiz bankrupt.
Lake Agassiz was the massive, 170,000 square-mile freshwater body that covered most of North America, much larger than any modern lake. When the ice wall gave way, large amounts of fresh water suddenly poured into the ocean, causing large-scale changes in ocean currents.
Right now, in today’s world, there doesn’t seem to be any comparable trigger. There is no freshwater body as vast as Lake Agassiz, where its sudden collapse could cause disturbances in ocean currents of equal magnitude to what happened 12,900 years ago.
Of course, the lack of clear logical cause hasn’t stopped climate alarmists from experimenting with their models and announcing the dreaded global warming that fuels ice age scenarios.
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