Inside Climate News confuses model with reality – Are you happy with that?

Originally posted at ClimateREALITY

Via Linnea Lueken – March 31, 2022

Inside Climate News recently published a paper discussing a new model that warns of an impending decline in global food production due to climate change. Climate models have proven to be poor at depicting reality, and data collected during recent warming shows crop yields regularly setting new records; the opposite of apocalypse food production Inside Climate News is the warning of.

Posts, “Complex models now measure the impact of climate change on global food production. The results were ‘alarming,’“Say that there is a global food crash caused by climate, which is expected to happen sooner than previously believed. Research relies entirely on agricultural forecasting models but on the results of climate change models that are unreliable to make their predictions.

Paper, “Climate impacts on global agriculture appear earlier in next-generation crop and climate models“Presentes projections for a range of models running globally that compare different crops globally based on the most recent Paired Model Comparison Project (CMIP6) climate scenarios.

It uses two climate models, or representative concentration paths (RCPs) —RCP2.60, and discredit RCP8.5. These models have been shown to run too hot, predicting high temperatures, in the words of the scientists working on the model, “super fast. ”

As discussed in a Climate realism Parcel, thisTwo recent peer-reviewed studies show a large degree of bias for warmer projections and CMIP5 models warm 4 to 5 times faster than actual observed temperature data. McKitrick and Christy (2020) writes in “Convincing warming trends in the CMIP6 convection layers” that “[W]I see no improvement between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. “

If current models used to predict temperatures are inaccurate, the food production models based on them cannot be accurate either.

The sixth assessment report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) relies heavily on these same temperature patterns, in particular the implausible RCP8.5, and was widely disseminated. be censured by scientists for doing so. Climate realism discuss recent reports thisand found that the report contained a large amount of speculation and very little evidence based on measured data.

The study’s authors assert that even highly mitigation scenarios, such as RCP2.6, would still cause global food production “soon to face fundamentally altered risk profiles”, which This will require adaptation and “risk management” to global farming practices.

However, the data show that major food crops have experienced increased global production for at least the past 60 years, coupled with modest increases in carbon dioxide and warming.

As discussed initially in this Climate realism Parcel, thisThe Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has been collecting global food production data since 1961. For the staple crops of maize, wheat and rice, the data show a significant increase in both overall yields and yields per acre as the Earth warms (see figures 1 and 2 below).

Corn, specifically, is discussed in the article and cited by Inside Climate News are threatened by global warming. However, over the past few decades of warming, the FAO reports that world maize production has increased by about 467% and production by more than 196%.

An analysis by Willis Eschenbach in a Climate realism parcel thisbroken down major food crops by country and average annual temperature, and found that “yields in warmer countries are no better or worse than yields in cooler countries”.

This finding, along with FAO data, suggests that alarms around hotter temperatures and food production are unfounded.

As a common saying in computer science: garbage in, garbage out. It is irresponsible and unethical to use unrealistic warming scenarios to promote the idea that billions of people will starve to death as climate change causes a collapse of food production. This is especially true when one considers, as discovered in more than 100 Posts about Climate RealismActual data shows that higher carbon dioxide concentrations and warmer planets regularly produce record outputs.

Linnea Lueken

Linnea Lueken is a Research Fellow of the Arthur B. Robinson Center for Climate and Environmental Policy. As a Heartland Institute intern in 2018, she co-authored the Heartland Institute Policy Brief “Drawling Four Persistent Myths of Hydraulic Fracture.”

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