Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese returns from laying a wreath at the Indonesian National Heroes Cemetery on June 6, 2022 in Jakarta, Indonesia. Albanese made her first trip to Indonesia, promising to strengthen ties in two days of diplomatic and business meetings.
Ed Wray | beautiful pictures
Long before new Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese makes his first bilateral visit to JakartaIndonesia’s confidence in Australia has waned.
Based on Lowy Institute’s first poll on Indonesia in a decadeIndonesians’ confidence in Australia has dropped 20 points in 10 years – from 75% in 2011 to 55% last year.
Indonesians are also increasingly distrustful of most major powers, including the US and China, according to an Australian research organization survey of 3,000 Indonesians late last year.
“The majority of Indonesians trust the US and Australia to act responsibly, but this number has decreased significantly since 2011.” The survey showed that.
Indonesia’s distrust of Australia deepened after Canberra signed the AUKUS trilateral nuclear submarine and security agreement with the US and UK last year, former Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa told CNBC last week. before.
Australia’s new leaders have now cut diplomatic work for them, he added.
“It is important for Indonesia to decipher the intentions – what are the goals of the new Australian government in [Asia-Pacific] The minister said in an exclusive interview on “Street Signs Asia.”
The AUKUS deal has ruffled hair in Asia-Pacific – and also Indonesia and Malaysia expressed concern after it was announced. Indonesia has said it does not want to see a “continued arms race and the emergence of power in the region” and urged Australia to meet its nuclear non-proliferation obligations.
Australia-Indonesia relationship is fractured
Questions remain as to whether Australia and Indonesia can take their relationship to a deeper level under Albanese’s leadership.
Indonesia considers AUKUS a threat, says Performing Supriatma, visiting colleagues at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.
Jakarta has long viewed Canberra as conflicted and untrustworthy – and the AUKUS pact and accession to the Quartet have made things worse ever since. Supriatma says it could provoke China and destabilize the region.
History doesn’t help.
“The Indonesian military elite has not yet forgotten about Australia’s ‘intervention’ in East Timor in 1999,” he said, referring to Indonesia’s attacks on East Timor after the independence elections. create.
He added: “The Indonesian military cannot dispel the perception that the Australian military has intervened in Indonesian territory” and forced the Indonesian armed forces to withdraw.
For the Indonesians, it doesn’t matter that Australia acted on the orders of the US.
Following the announcement of AUKUS, Political observers, including former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, have expressed concern that Australia-Indonesia ties have deteriorated as the security pact focuses more on managing Canberra’s fraught relationship. with Beijing.
Australia chose Indonesia to be the first minister to go head-to-head after the election, but many in Indonesia would not think Australia deserves the same attention, said Tim Lindsey and Tim Mann of the Indonesia Law Center, “ Education and Society at the University of Melbourne speak in a view section in the Conversation.
“They see [Australia] as a low-rated trade and investment partner, with a greater focus on the US and UK than on Southeast Asia,” they said.
Strengthening trade relations?
The new Australian government has made every effort to re-establish relations.
That includes reinforcing a promise to establish a $140 million (AU$200 million) climate and infrastructure partnership with Indonesia, pledging an additional $327 million in support for climate change. overseas development for Southeast Asia and appointed a senior special envoy for the region.
“We want to strengthen our relationship with Indonesia, as well as with Southeast Asia. We see that ASEAN is at the heart of the region,” Albanese said during a visit last week.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese addresses the media on June 5, 2022. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was in Indonesia on Monday to meet President Joko Widodo and the strong relationship between the two neighbours, in his first bilateral visit since being elected last month .
Matt Jelonek | Getty Images News | beautiful pictures
To keep relations between the two countries warm, Lindsey and Mann lobbied for increased aid to Indonesia, making it easier for Indonesians to enter Australia, as well as more funding for Indonesian research in Australia.
They point out: “Australians can get a visa on arrival in Indonesia but even Indonesians who want to visit Australia on a tourist visa face an expensive, complicated and poor application process. .
Krisna Gupta and Donny Pasaribu, analysts at the Australian National University’s Crawford School of Public Policy, say this is where the Indonesia-Australia CEPA deal can come into play.
The The Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IA-CEPA) was signed three years ago.
Gupta and Pasaribu say it aims to liberalize trade between the two countries, not just from tariff reductions to non-tariff measures, trade in services and investment. However, there are many caveats and exceptions to non-tariff measures.
“The economic importance of IA-CEPA remains to be seen, at least from the Indonesian side. Not only are there many warnings, but the implementation of IA-CEPA will also require many changes in Indonesian regulations in the region. ministerial and local levels, two analysts said.
But there are other benefits such as people-to-people exchanges that could open up a commercial relationship between Australia and Indonesia.
Unfortunately, Indonesia can’t seem to improve its manufacturing advantage, at least compared to Vietnam and Thailand, let alone China.
Krisna Gupta and Donny Pasaribu
Crawford School of Public Policy
“While trade in goods may be a bit tougher, trade in services could be the way to go. Additionally, Australia can help improve the mobility of people through a working holiday visa. “, they say.
They say increasing the number of Indonesian foreign students or exchanging students more at all levels of education and schools could also boost the two countries’ trade deals, they said.
Partner or competitor
But don’t expect Indonesia’s trade with Australia to come close to China’s trade with Australia, they said.
Two-way trade between China and Australia is worth A$250 billion ($176 billion) in 2020.
Meanwhile, trade between Indonesia and Australia was worth only A$17 billion in the same period mainly selling beef and beef and coal.
However, ANU economists point out that China is easier to trade as the world’s factory and supply chain hub.
They point out that, in reality, Indonesia and Australia are not complementary trading partners but rivals.
Both countries are exporters of goods while China is a major buyer of raw materials in the region.
“Unfortunately, Indonesia is unlikely to improve its manufacturing advantage, at least compared to Vietnam and Thailand, let alone China,” said ANU analysts.
Tim Harcourt, chief economist at the Institute of Governance and Public Policy at the University of Technology Sydney, agrees that “Indonesia is not yet considered an economic partner” with Australia.
But he sees progress.
In addition to services and human commerce, Harcourt said the Australian government is moving towards more non-traditional commercial cooperation with Indonesia in the areas of science, games and software.
This time things were different, Harcourt added.
“The fact that Albanese sent a heavyweight delegation of ministers and business leaders shows that it is more than just lip service,” said the economist.
“I think his bringing in science and industry minister as well as trade minister shows that the Labor government wants to build research and development with Indonesian institutions.”
