In the 5 key battlegrounds, most of the GOP candidates are election deniers

Nearly 6/10 Republican legislative candidates in 5 key battleground states negate results of the 2020 election, according to analysis by a group that tracks races.

Of 450 Republican candidates – including incumbents running for re-election and non-incumbents – in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan and Minnesota, 58% of them have a reputation as former President. . Donald TrumpAccording to research shared exclusively with NBC News by The States Project, a left-leaning group that tracks state legislative races in battleground states, lies that claim the 2020 election have been stolen .

Experts warn that if enough candidates are denied the election, majority Republicans in the states of these key battlegrounds could have the power to rewrite election laws and influence elections. future elections, including in 2024 when Trump may run for re-election.

Daniel Squadron, executive director of The States Project, said: “When election deniers take control, they will do whatever they can to undermine free and fair elections.

“We know that the rules for elections and determining winners are set through the legislative process, so what these people do will have a huge impact” on “everything from who has who can register and who can vote depends on how the results are calculated,” added Squadron.

Those five states (and others) there are also those who refuse to vote as Republican candidates in the races for governor and secretary of state – offices with power to monitor, administer and certify elections. If the deniers in those races win, their ability to influence future elections can be further enhanced by having the deniers cooperate in their states to help promote legislation that rebuilt some of the electoral laws in those states.

“Those with such extreme views about the last election could promote changes to the voting process that both make it more difficult to cast ballots for eligible voters, and make running the election becomes much more difficult,” said election expert Rick Pildes, of New York University. Law School Professor.

Pildes pointed to various proposals in states like Arizona and Nevada that would require manual counting of votes and cut back on mail-in and absentee voting. Kari Lake, the Republican nominee for governor, proposed last weekend that She will support efforts to limit early voting if elected.

As of January 1, 2021, lawmakers in 21 states have passed at least 42 laws with voting limits, according to nonpartisan Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law.

24 bills to interfere with election administration have been signed into law across 17 states by 2022, with hundreds more introduced, according to the nonpartisan Center for American Democracy. Many of the most draconian proposals could allow state legislators to more easily overturn election results, like the bills in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Michigan that has give legislators some or all control pass the election results. Others will allow a partisan majority in a state Legislature conducts election audit or have more power to submit their own electors (although experts like Pildes have suggested that such proposals could ultimately be seen as unconstitutional).

The potential impact that state legislatures could have on future elections could extend even further, depending on how the Supreme Court rules next year on a cases involving major elections. Case, Moore and Harper, which largely revolved around Republicans seeking to limit the power of state courts to review maps and restrict voting. But if the judges accept a conservative legal theory – known as independent state legislature theory – in their ruling, it could have the effect of granting state legislatures the sole power to establish election rules and provisions in the states.

Trump supporters who support that stance in the 2020 presidential election disputes, saying that state courts do not have the authority to amend the rules for voting by mail. Those arguments did not prevail, but at least four members of the US Supreme Court found they had some appeal.

The court will hear the arguments in that case in December.

How key battlegrounds like Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Michigan conduct their future elections could very well determine the winners of future presidential races.

“State legislatures have a great deal of discretion in the rules that federal law imposes on how to govern the electoral process – and for many reasons, based on [what] Some of the candidates in these states have said they’re worried about how to use that discretion,” Pildes said.

Squadron added: “These are key presidential pivot states, where razor-thin margins decide the winner.

In its analysis, The States Project, a Democratic group focused on winning state elections, identified a voter as a candidate who questioned or denied results of the 2020 election. In making its decision, the team considered the public comments, social media posts, and policy commitments of every Republican legislative candidate. in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Minnesota.

The group’s analysis found that voter dissenters were most popular in Arizona state legislative races, where they made up 87% of all Republican candidates in those races.

Among them is the state of Sen. Wendy Rogers and Representative Jake Hoffman, who has Is called for their state’s 2020 election results is confirmand State Senate candidate Justine Wadsack, who expressed support for Conspiracy theories promoted by QAnon.

Hoffman also among the few so-called false electors in the state who signed documents claiming to be the lawful electors of their state and trumpet – not Joe Biden – won the state.

In both Pennsylvania and Michigan, 62% of all Republican legislative candidates in each state were election deniers, the group found.

That includes at least eight Michigan State Senate candidates or multiple signed incumbents Letters or summary sought to overturn the 2020 results in the state or delay the certification of the results.

In Minnesota, 42% of all Republican candidates nominated in state legislative races were voter deniers, while in Nevada, 31% were. That includes a number of incumbents and candidates in Minnesota who was question or challenge the outcome of the 2020 election.

“We have good reason to worry about the integrity of the [electoral] Pildes said.

Adam Edelman is a political reporter for NBC News.