Jennifer Marohasy
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s parallel maximum temperature data currently available for Mildura – temperatures recorded from both mercury thermometers and platinum resistance probes on the same day in the same shelter – do not show equivalence. They are different. Therefore, it is not possible to reliably compare the official temperature recorded from the probes with the historical temperature recorded by mercury thermometers for the town of Mildura on the banks of the Murray River.
This has implications for claims of new record hot days for Mildura. If the problem of non-equivalence extends to all 700 automated weather stations spread across a large swath of Australia, that has implications for NASA’s global average temperature calculation based on data. data of the Department. Indeed, if an instrument change had produced a non-equivalence in the records, it would not be possible for the Bureau and/or other scientists and organizations using Australian data to determine the reliability of the data. any claim of record hot days, fewer extreme cold days, or claims of an accelerating global warming trend.
I can’t tell, as I was only able to secure the data for Mildura and this happened after the intervention of then-Environment Minister Josh Frydenberg in October 2017. This interference happened after The famous 2GB radio station Alan Jones wrote to the Minister on my behalf asking for this data to be provided to me.
It It all started with me on September 23, 2017The Bureau reported a record-breaking September day for Victoria based on an instant reading of 37.7 °C from their dedicated uncalibrated temperature probe at a weather station in Mildura.
The media later reiterated that this was the hottest September day on record since 1889.
Back in 1889, it was in fact that for the period until November 1, 1996, the Bureau used a properly calibrated mercury thermometer to measure the official temperature at Mildura.
I was skeptical about immediately reading from the probe represents a new record hot day. I started accessing parallel data for Mildura that I hoped would allow me to see what the mercury thermometer in the same monitor Stevenson recorded that day.
A Freedom of Information request, submitted by my husband John Abbot in December 2019, to provide parallel data to 34 other official weather stations for the purpose of recording temperatures from mercury thermometers and probes in the same shelter has so far been rejected by the Bureau.
Boris Kelly-Gerreyn from the Bureau initially claimed it was too difficult to provide scanned A8 forms and are not community profit. More recently, and absurdly, Boris Kelly-Gerreyn has stated that the information is not Not exists in report form and therefore cannot be provided. On November 29, 2021, Elizabeth Hampton, Acting Freedom of Information Commissioner, haphazardly sided with the Bureau. John Abbot has filed a complaint with the Court of Administrative Appeals to be heard on 3 February in Brisbane.
I received scans of A8 Forms from Mildura at the direction of Minister Frydenberg in two batches in October and then December 2017.
My immediate and initial analysis of the first wave indicated that the recording probe was too cold for mercury. I Write a letter to the Minister requests further A8Forms and recommends that the Bureau:
1. Pause the announcement of the number of new record hot days;
2. Inform the World Meteorological Organization that their temperature measurements from the probes are Not comparable to historical measurements from mercury thermometers;
3. Establish an audit mechanism.
I was ignored by the Minister. Australian science writer and blogger Published by Joanne Nova something at her blog. It was most disappointing when Bill Johnston in the same thread posed about discrediting my findings.
After receiving a second batch and manually recording more mercury and probe values from the A8 Forms scanned from Mildura, my second analysis once again confirmed that the first probe – recording official temperature from November 1, 1996 to May 3, 2000 – the wrongly recorded temperature is too cool 0.2 °C and has a strong seasonal variation. The difference is statistically significant.
On May 3, 2000, the Bureau changed the Stevenson monitor to a smaller design, and although there is no record of a change in transducer type, this is almost certainly the case based on the recording pattern. very different from the mercury I found through data analysis after copying the values from the scanned Form A8.
Initially, the temperature as recorded at Mildura, from what I assume is a new second probe in the new shelter, which is more consistent with measurements from mercury thermometers. But then I could see from the data that the temperature from the probe started to cool down relative to the mercury thermometer in the period up to June 27, 2012. The cooling rate was close to 1°C. in 100 years.
Then, on June 27, 2012, the probe has now officially recorded temperatures at Mildura for 12 years while drifting to record ever colder temperatures, which were changed.
The limited available parallel data indicates that this third probe records overheating compared to the same mercury thermometer – typically 0.4 °C.
After June 27, 2012, the Bureau stopped recording parallel data daily, especially on hotter days. To be clear, on the hottest days between June 27, 2012 and January 31, 2015, there were no records from mercury thermometers and so this data is not available. normal distribution. I explained all this in a blog Posted February 11, 2018that again received surprisingly little attention.
I have informed mainstream climate scientists and many journalists but they don’t seem to want to make sense of it. I have been concerned about this since 2014, when I have written to Australia’s Chief Scientist, Alan Finkel. Now I feel I have some more convincing evidence. I am concerned that Australia’s entire historical temperature record is being compromised and that I am no longer interested in my weather forecasting using machine learning technology which relies on reliable temperature data. .
Meanwhile, these same university professors have shown are not interested in any quality assurance issues regarding the change in equipment which I have notified them via email, has stated that it has suddenly become a lot hotter in Australia.
Sophie C. Lewis and Andrew D. King, for example, published in Geophysical research letter (episode 42, issue 18) concluded that temperatures in Australia had become significantly hotter since 2012. They attributed the ‘significant increase in heat record-breaking rates observed in recent Australian temperatures’ to warming. man-made global.
I wrote to Dr. Lewis suggesting that the increase in temperature could be due to changes in the way temperature is measured, specifically changes to the design of the third probe. She never answered.
The World Meteorological Organization provides a definition of a maximum daily temperature: the highest temperature in that 24-hour period can be read directly from a mercury thermometer, but when using a temperature probe, ‘instant’ values should be averaged over a period of one to ten minutes.
All of this aside, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology uses specialized probes and instant readings. These were then used informally to declare catastrophic human-caused global warming – and record new hot days, including in Mildura.
I predict that one day it will all fall apart, including the careers of Sophie Lewis, Andrew King, Boris Kelly-Gerreyn and Elizabeth Hampton.
It may have been started by Josh Frydenberg in 2017, but he messed things up. Many thanks to Alan Jones for at least trying to get the job done.
There’s still time for the Bureau’s current Director, Andrew Johnston, to help me figure out the extent of the problem by making all the data public in parallel. But so far, he won’t even see me; also emailed that the bureau’s purpose-designed probes are equivalent to older mercury thermometers so numerical averaging is unnecessary. Except for the limited data I have, the transcription and analysis for Mildura tells a completely different story. A story about incompetence, as well as dishonesty.
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