Horse Racing

How to play Pasco Staking


By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman


This weekend is turning into a quiet time on the US horse racing front. Only one classified stake was on the agenda and no Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers were found.


So why don’t we take a trip to the Tampa Bay Downs for a $125,000 Pasco S. handicap? The seven-stage sprint for three-year-olds isn’t the wealthiest or most prestigious race on a calendar Saturday, but it has produced a surprising number of quality horses since it first took place on Sunday. 1999.


Need some examples? In 2009, Pasco finished 1-2 Musket Man and General Quarters went on to finish third and tenth in the Kentucky Derby (G1); Musket Man also finished third in Preakness S. (G1) while General Quarters has won multiple Class 1 races in a fruitful career. The starters of the Kentucky Derby Prospective (2012), Harry’s Holiday (2014) and Win Win Win (2019) also started in Pasco, as did the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) World of Trouble runners-up.


Six horses participated in Pasco 2023, with #4 Dream of Champions (6-5) clear favorite on the morning line. Justify’s son is easily the most successful horse in the Pasco field, having won his direct debut at Saratoga to finish fifth in Champagne S. (G1) and a tenacious victory in Nashua S. (G3).


But is Champions Dream invincible in Pasco? Unnecessary. He was beaten by a margin in Champagne, and his Nashua effort wasn’t the fastest on the clock. Racing on a sloppy track, the Champions Dream benefited from finishing at:28.01 the last quarter of a mile to win the heat of a mile by 3/4 of the length in 1:39.17. Full Moon Madness runner-up then finished fourth with nine lengths at Heft S. at Laurel Park, while third-placer Prove Right finished last out of seven (beating 32 lengths) at Remsen S. ( G2).


Champions Dream qualifies for improvement by shortening to seven stretches (the gap in his first win) and adding Lasix to Pasco, but with the score 6-5 I’m not sure he’s the one best play. I’d rather throw my support behind #3 Handsome player (7-2).


The Handsome Playboy has tackled a number of different racing conditions during his short career. He debuted in the first mile special weight class on the Monmouth Park turf and used speed-tracking tactics to take a four-way lead. He then cut it down to 6 1/2 feathers and switched to Tapeta for Fitz Dixon, Jr. Memorial Juvenile S. at the Presque Isle Downs, where he shot by mistake and finished fifth.


But Handsome Playboy is back on track since moving to dirty play in the Tampa Bay Downs. Overlooked at 33-1 in the six-second S. Opening Ceremony, Handsome Playboy slyly fought from the pace track to finish second in the deep. The winner, Super Chow, previously won Bowman Mill S. and later added Limehouse S. to his decorated resume, while third-place finisher Dreaming of Kona returned. beat Mucho Macho Man S.


The Handsome Playboy also returned to win the next start, using its signature speed-tracking tactic to dominate the $75,000 stipend for claimants of the six-mile sprint option. The length at Tampa is 4 1/4 of the distance. With Brisnet Speed ​​ratings of 90 and 80, Handsome Playboy is already fast enough to challenge Champions Dream for the win, and his recent sprint experience on the Tampa main track should be of great help to him.


There are a few other positive factors in favor of Handsome Playboy. He has tactical speed but isn’t the type to take the lead, so he looks to make a smooth ride under the lead of hot racer Pablo Morales, who won 19 to 80 (24 (24). %) in Tampa since December 1. And Handsome Playboy trained by Gerald Bennett, whose Tampa record for the same time period was 14–42 (33%). If Handsome Playboy’s 7-2 morning odds hold (and I suspect), he’ll be one of my best plays of the weekend.


#5 Armstrong (6-1), winner Clarendon S. sprinting on the Woodbine Tapeta track last month, is a decent choice to include in the exact ticket and the three-part ticket. I also recommend support #1 ShaqDiesel (10-1), who won two straight sprints at Gulfstream (reaching Brisnet Speed ​​ratings of 82 and 90) before finishing fourth in the Opening Ceremony. Given how strong the Inauguration is, Shaq Diesel won’t need much improvement (or any improvement) to challenge for third place in Pasco.


Now it’s your turn! Who do you like in Pasco Stakes?

*****

Want to test your handicap skills against other Unlocking Winners readers? Check Unlock the Winners contest page—There’s a new challenge every week! (Please note: older entries can be found here.)

J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, cinematographer, voice actor, disabled athlete, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A huge fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager the greatest racehorse ever made in America, but considers Zenyatta his all-time favorite.

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