How has hurricane forecasting skills changed? And a warm, dry weekend ahead.
There’s been a lot of interest in hurricane forecasts this week with Hurricane Ian’s landfall, so this week’s podcast discusses hurricane forecast progress.
The story is a nuanced one. Hurricane tracking predictions have gotten much better over the past decades, with 72-hour position error reduced by about 75%! (see below)
But on the other hand, the magnitude projections, although improved, did not go as far as the follow-up predictions (see below).
In my podcast, I explain why there is a skill difference between intensity and track forecasting, telling you about some of the challenges.
And I also talk about storm Ina forecast. The European Center and UKMET office models did much better than the US model in terms of 3-6 day forecasts, but amazingly BOTH forecast a major storm in the region NEARLY EVERY DAY THEN (see demonstration below).
US Model 20-day forecast
European model 9 days of launch
And in the first segment, I provide the forecast. Warm, dry and almost perfect for any outdoor activity. Yes, this was one of the earliest, warmest autumns on record.And it’s not over yet. Details in the podcast.